TJW014 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Might book a flight down to ride this one out. Got family in the Naples/Marco area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 The NHC forecast is fairly bullish with an intensity of 95kts for the 72 and 96 hour points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 It’d be prudent to give the models (especially the hurricane intensity ones like the HAFS) more time, but the signal here for something significant is strong. FL should be preparing as such and perhaps into coastal GA/SC if the forecast holds. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 12Z Icon: near Pt Charlotte, which is further N than the 0Z/6Z that were between Ft Myers and Naples 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 This would be a deadly blow for Florida’s insurance market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 14 minutes ago, George BM said: The NHC forecast is fairly bullish with an intensity of 95kts for the 72 and 96 hour points. Ugghhh. There is no scenario evolving where the Tampa Bay Area is not at risk of major flooding yet again. We have debris from Helene piled up for miles along the roads some reaching ten feet high. Flood waters will just carry that stuff and smash it everywhere. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, GaWx said: 12Z Icon: near Pt Charlotte, which is further N than the 0Z/6Z that were between Ft Myers and Naples Someone on the west coast is going to take a big hit soon. God bless all of you. Including me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Just now, Hotair said: Ugghhh. There is no scenario evolving where the Tampa Bay Area is not at risk of major flooding yet again. We have debris from Helene piled up for miles along the roads some reaching ten feet high. Flood waters will just carry that stuff and smash it everywhere. Way too early to make claims like this. The consensus track is south of Tampa Bay for now and would ease the concern of another major surge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Folks in the Tampa area need to be taking pictures with Timestamps of the current condition of their homes. Two claims from two different storms can be really tricky. I have friends that have a flood claim from Helene. This has the potential for flood and wind damage. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 As of now, the first recon flight is not scheduled until 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’d be prudent to give the models (especially the hurricane intensity ones like the HAFS) more time, but the signal here for something significant is strong. FL should be preparing as such and perhaps into coastal GA/SC if the forecast holds. Forward velocity really picks up after Tuesday and is an important factor for landfall impacts. Looks like another highly asymmetrical impact threat with just south/east of landfall having worst impacts, just north and west, much less. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 20 minutes ago, George BM said: The NHC forecast is fairly bullish with an intensity of 95kts for the 72 and 96 hour points. Just a hair below major at 110 mph. I guess they don’t have the confidence for “major” headlines yet. That’s fair and reasonable at this stage. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Forward velocity really picks up after Tuesday and is an important factor for landfall impacts. Looks like another highly asymmetrical impact threat with just south/east of landfall having worst impacts, just north and west, much less.Can you elaborate on why it is an important factor for landfall impacts please? Trying to learn. Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 4 minutes ago, Cholorob said: Can you elaborate on why it is an important factor for landfall impacts please? Trying to learn. Thanks. . The faster the motion for a given intensity, the less strong the weaker side is with more asymmetry typically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 When was the last time a Hurricane came west to east across the Gulf to effect the west coast of Florida like that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: When was the last time a Hurricane came west to east across the Gulf to effect the west coast of Florida like that? They both came from the south but Ian and Charley both moved across the state from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Knocked out the initial Publix run for water. As we are in Zone A/closest to water always proactive with planning, but most of our go-to inland hotel options are sold out already, probably due to folks displaced by Helene. Managed to book one night in different cities Tues and Wed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 8 minutes ago, cptcatz said: They both came from the south but Ian and Charley both moved across the state from west to east. yea I can remember some going from the south and going across from west to east but I can't remember the last time one come basically due east or ENE from Mexico like Milton is shaping up to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 While this system is already looking good, with persistent deep convection near the center, models really start to blow it up Sunday morning as it begins its eastward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 GFS coming in even stronger. 956 mb at hour 66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 GFS slams a 951mb cane right into tampa bay :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 GFS is a devastating setup for TB. Shifts in track and intensity obviously crucial for whatever areas are S and E of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Dam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 12Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a hair S of Icon) on Fri, which is N of the 0Z’s Naples and much slower than the Icon/GFS’s Wed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: 12Z CMC: Pt Charlotte (a hair S of Icon) on Fri, which is N of the 0Z’s Naples and much slower than the Icon/GFS’s Wed The Canadian is, very oddly, two days slower than the other models. Throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Scary that the GFS did very well with Helene and is already seeming to like a certain track/intensity near the Tampa/st Pete/Sarasota metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 I had the chance to tour some of the damage on Treasure Island and St. Pete beach…it’s much worse than I was expecting or most people would considering where Helene hit. So many houses lost everything, along with bars, restaurants, businesses, etc. Two main points from that for this one, 1. the debris is everywhere, piled feet upon feet high. Consider that stuff a floating weapon if this pushed similar surge in those towns. It would be a disaster. 2. Some people don’t understand what the outcome of a GFS like run would be for this area…it would be one of our most damaging hurricanes. Tampa has evaded direct surge impacts and a hit for most of recorded history. Others know if one came in over the bay or just north it would be the “one”. Not trying to be a hypester, but statistically and studies wise, weather folks have said this area in some ways can be worse than NOLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 12Z UK: between Naples and Ft Myers Wed (similar timing to GFS/Icon and much faster than CMC), which is N of 0Z’s S of Naples but is still way S of GFS’ just N of Tampa and a little S of Icon/CMC Pt Charlotte; remains furthest S of these 4; reminder: UK was furthest SE for Ian several days out and did best fwiw: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 95.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 05.10.2024 0 21.9N 95.2W 1008 25 0000UTC 06.10.2024 12 22.7N 94.5W 1007 24 1200UTC 06.10.2024 24 23.3N 94.5W 1006 26 0000UTC 07.10.2024 36 22.8N 93.1W 1004 30 1200UTC 07.10.2024 48 21.9N 91.9W 1001 32 0000UTC 08.10.2024 60 22.3N 89.7W 998 30 1200UTC 08.10.2024 72 23.1N 87.4W 995 34 0000UTC 09.10.2024 84 24.5N 85.5W 993 38 1200UTC 09.10.2024 96 25.9N 82.8W 993 38 0000UTC 10.10.2024 108 27.9N 79.6W 994 52 1200UTC 10.10.2024 120 29.2N 75.9W 991 61 0000UTC 11.10.2024 132 29.5N 70.4W 995 50 1200UTC 11.10.2024 144 30.0N 64.5W 1003 43 0000UTC 12.10.2024 156 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Question - from the angle the storm will be coming, would it be worse for Tampa (surge wise) for the storm to track north of the metro or south? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now