TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 GEFS tracks clustered between Sarasota to Crystal River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 This could be a a near fatal blow for the Fl insurance market if the GFS is anywhere near correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 42 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Still looks somewhat elongated, but I would think advisories start up today. It seems like the earlier intensification helps fight off some of the shear and sends 92L farther north. Most of the strongest members are on the north side of the ensemble suite. The outflow channel modeled on the 00/06Z GFS is a thing of beauty. Wow that's like legit close to being a tropical storm already. Nice thing about this tracking so close to the CONUS for its entire life will be we should get lots of recon flights. Hopefully they start flying soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 06z Euro is much slower than the 00Z but it may have ended up close to the same location of landfall in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Now that this is an invest, the hurricane models are running. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A are bombing it out pretty quickly, but are also suggesting possible rapid weakening upon approach to Florida as the structure deteriorates. The HAFS-B, oddly, struggles to ever strengthen it much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 It’ll be interesting how far up the east side of FL it’s able to creep before being swept off by the front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Now that this is an invest, the hurricane models are running. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A are bombing it out pretty quickly, but are also suggesting possible rapid weakening upon approach to Florida as the structure deteriorates. The HAFS-B, oddly, struggles to ever strengthen it much.Would this be bad news for potential surge? Even if it is weaker at the moment of landfall. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Now that this is an invest, the hurricane models are running. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A are bombing it out pretty quickly, but suggesting possible rapid weakening upon approach to Florida. The HAFS-B, oddly, struggles to ever strengthen it much. For this cycle all landfall north of TB. Big time surge set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Just now, TPAwx said: For this cycle all landfall north of TB. Big time surge set up. We need a break in Tampa. So many homes went under water. I just gutted mine due to the surge. Lets hope this comes in weak and spares Tampa. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 hour ago, TPAwx said: Landfall appears closer to Homosassa/Crystal River. Still a significant problem for TB. Also as mentioned elsewhere the west coast is even more vulnerable right now due to erosion caused by Helene. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 2 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Would this be bad news for potential surge? Even if it is weaker at the moment of landfall. . A hurricane traveling across the entire Gulf and then making landfall at nearly a right angle is relatively rare for the peninsula. This would definitely enhance the surge south of wherever it comes inland, even if it weakens near the coast. The Atlantic side surge would also be significant and could be co-located with some of the heaviest rain. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 7 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: We need a break in Tampa. So many homes went under water. I just gutted mine due to the surge. Lets hope this comes in weak and spares Tampa. That sucks, best of luck. We have multiple friends and neighbors that lost primary or second homes, and many others dealing with damage. Milton would literally defeat a lot of people here. Still developing so a range of outcomes are possible. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Really hoping this doesn’t come in on the further south models creating a big threat for SE Florida. That would be an extremely expensive storm.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 53 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Now that this is an invest, the hurricane models are running. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A are bombing it out pretty quickly, but are also suggesting possible rapid weakening upon approach to Florida as the structure deteriorates. The HAFS-B, oddly, struggles to ever strengthen it much. The hurricane models are all tightly clustered around Tarpon Springs and Port Richey area. That area is already reeling from the flooding from Helene. The is a lot of debris on the right of way that will become projectiles if this pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 24 minutes ago, Seminole said: The hurricane models are all tightly clustered around Tarpon Springs and Port Richey area. That area is already reeling from the flooding from Helene. The is a lot of debris on the right of way that will become projectiles if this pans out. Excellent point. Here is a video of Palm harbor near where my friend lives. All the stuff pulled out of wet houses is laying next to the street. https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/local/pinellascounty/palm-harbor-ravaged-helene-cleanup/67-b0211684-6585-4833-bb7f-0a4b33f898dc 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Looks good enough to initiate advisories at 1100ET to me. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Sheesh Hurricane models coming in hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Looks good enough to initiate advisories at 1100ET to me. Yeah, this system has come together more quickly than models and the NHC suggested/expected. It appears to already be a TD with a well-defined surface circulation and central convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 39 minutes ago, Seminole said: The hurricane models are all tightly clustered around Tarpon Springs and Port Richey area. That area is already reeling from the flooding from Helene. The is a lot of debris on the right of way that will become projectiles if this pans out. It's all across the TB area. Debris removal has been in progress, but the scale of the job is enormous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Looks good enough to initiate advisories at 1100ET to me. Was thinking the same thing. Also the 90 degree angle of approach will likely bring enhanced surge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Every hurricane season, we know the Gulf is a latent heat powder keg for TC’s. However, land interaction and very limited time over water are the primary limiting factors. If those aspects are eliminated, intensity forecasts are generally in the realm of a major. Milton will be maximizing its time (84hr+ with a well defined center of circulation ) over the open Gulf, as did Helene. A difficult thing to do any year but happening twice now 2 weeks apart. Given this, and latest guidance —globals and hurricane models— assuming the CoC gets better defined here within the next 24 hrs, a good baseline bet is Cat 3 upon closest approach to west coast of Florida. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 3 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Still looks somewhat elongated, but I would think advisories start up today. It seems like the earlier intensification helps fight off some of the shear and sends 92L farther north. Most of the strongest members are on the north side of the ensemble suite. The outflow channel modeled on the 00/06Z GFS is a thing of beauty. 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: Now that this is an invest, the hurricane models are running. The HWRF, HMON, and HAFS-A are bombing it out pretty quickly, but are also suggesting possible rapid weakening upon approach to Florida as the structure deteriorates. The HAFS-B, oddly, struggles to ever strengthen it much. I hate to say it because of all the suffering happening in Florida, but I had a feeling of foreboding once I saw that EPAC seedling enter the BoC. That kind of vorticity entering that region is often a signal for development, and we’re seeing it play out this morning. To be clear, this is still a delicate setup with shear and dry air potentially lurking, but I think much like all the other Gulf hurricanes this year if future Milton is able to develop an inner core and anything close to the outflow channel suggested, it will not weaken on final approach, especially if it ends up further south in a warmer SST environment. Folks in FL need to activate their hurricane plans. I think the ceiling for this is substantially higher (doesn’t mean we’ll reach it) than it was last night. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 NHC says we have TD14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Advisories will be issued starting at 10am CDT on soon to be Milton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I hate to say it because of all the suffering happening in Florida, but I had a feeling of foreboding once I saw that EPAC seedling enter the BoC. That kind of vorticity entering that region is often a signal for development, and we’re seeing it play out this morning. To be clear, this is still a delicate setup with shear and dry air potentially lurking, but I think much like all the other Gulf hurricanes this year if future Milton is able to develop an inner core and anything close to the outflow channel suggested, it will not weaken on final approach, especially if it ends up further south in a warmer SST environment. Folks in FL need to activate their hurricane plans. I think the ceiling for this is substantially higher (doesn’t mean we’ll reach it) than it was last night. Local mets doing a good job after the 6z runs in highlighting the potential. The supply situation is dicey in many parts of the areas. Water, toilet paper, cleaning supplies , etc all in short stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 5 Author Share Posted October 5 4 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Local mets doing a good job after the 6z runs in highlighting the potential. The supply situation is dicey in many parts of the areas. Water, toilet paper, cleaning supplies , etc all in short stock. Really wishing all of you the best of luck there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 The 6z ensembles well North of the 0z model consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 52 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Every hurricane season, we know the Gulf is a latent heat powder keg for TC’s. However, land interaction and very limited time over water are the primary limiting factors. If those aspects are eliminated, intensity forecasts are generally in the realm of a major. Milton will be maximizing its time (84hr+ with a well defined center of circulation ) over the open Gulf, as did Helene. A difficult thing to do any year but happening twice now 2 weeks apart. Given this, and latest guidance —globals and hurricane models— assuming the CoC gets better defined here within the next 24 hrs, a good baseline bet is Cat 3 upon closest approach to west coast of Florida. The waters it will be traveling over are more typical of mid September. No upwelling from Helene to speak of, especially with the track it's taking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 35mph, 1007mb for the 11am adv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now