Major Hurricane Milton

[WxWatcher007]

With a 70% chance of development overall and potential impacts beginning in Florida as soon as this weekend, it's time for a dedicated thread to our latest disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. 

1. Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend 
or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward 
across the Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the Florida Peninsula and 
the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.   
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy 
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or 
two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle 
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

 

What was a historically quiet start of the peak in late August through Mid September came to an abrupt end, with the lid coming off the basin and the most NS on record developing in late September into early October. 

Our latest system in the Gulf somewhat mirrors what we saw with Francine--we have a boundary settling into the Gulf while an area of vorticity related to what was an EPAC system crossed into the Bay of Campeche. 

This is a sensitive setup, as the presence of a frontal boundary, shear, dry air, and a tropical seed provide interesting ingredients for a tropical or subtropical system, or even a non-tropical low, though that looks increasingly unlikely. In fact, the general idea recently from guidance has been for the tropical seed to stay just far enough away from getting entangled in the boundary and blasted by shear to become a modestly strong tropical cyclone. 

That said, there's a lot that needs to be determined. One thing that is clear however is that the presence of a boundary/trough and tropical seed opens the door to 1) a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) across part of the FL peninsula as soon as this weekend and 2) a follow up heavy rain event for parts of Florida with the system itself.  

I think this one has a modest ceiling, aided significantly by the EPAC seed. If we do get a more significant system--closer to that ceiling, wind and especially surge become more significant issues. 

[WxWatcher007]

18z EPS

[Windspeed]

18z EPS

Notice how a few of the most northern EPS track simulate RI to a powerful major, then suddenly weakens the TC down to TS status prior to landfall. That's most likely due to the blasting mid-to-upper ST jet. An earlier developed TC gets ventilation and divergence aloft until the TC's core drifts too far north and gets decapitated. Interestingly, many of the middle tracks support a hurricane all the way into landfall (though granted not nearly as intense), which again likely has a lot to do with the core remaining just enough south of the shear axis to not get sheared off prior to landfall.

Many possibilities on the table from this one, including the very small chance we see that first option: We get a huge scare from a rapidly intensifying hurricane that gets ripped completely apart prior to landfall. Much more likely scenario is a strong TS to minimal hurricane that makes it into landfall prior to significant weakening, but huge question marks on placement of TCG location, eventual track and proximity to shear axis values above 50 kts across the northern GOM. With the PRE and main system landfall, heavy rain and flash flooding is a higher risk, but attention has to be there for the wind and surge risk in case we get a stronger hurricane.

[Jebman]

Hopefully it is a fast mover. No mountains to worry about either.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

This thing is taking off now. 6hrs ago this thing was a blip. Now this system is looking like a strong Tropical Storm.

[Floydbuster]

 

[NeonPeon]

I think that's a lot to read out of a convective blob with little rotation, without seeing the other things you'd expect to see.  It is ominously persistent. If we see it get organized at all ahead of schedule, Id imagine we will get consensus to the higher end solutions.

18 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

This thing is taking off now. 6hrs ago this thing was a blip. Now this system is looking like a strong Tropical Storm.

 

 

 

[GaWx]

I forgot to post this earlier, the 12Z UK: (0Z out shortly)

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  72 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 23.8N  90.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.10.2024   72  23.8N  90.2W     1003            26
    0000UTC 08.10.2024   84  23.6N  89.1W     1000            31
    1200UTC 08.10.2024   96  25.0N  86.3W      998            31
    0000UTC 09.10.2024  108  25.0N  84.8W      998            32
    1200UTC 09.10.2024  120  26.7N  80.8W      999            35
    0000UTC 10.10.2024  132  27.1N  78.6W     1002            38
    1200UTC 10.10.2024  144  29.3N  69.9W     1004            35
    0000UTC 11.10.2024  156              CEASED TRACKING

[BlueDXer75]

0z GFS shows Cat 3 hurricane near TPA on Wednesday morning.  Down to 951mb

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, BlueDXer75 said:

0z GFS shows Cat 3 hurricane near TPA on Wednesday morning.  Down to 951mb

[Windspeed]

Hrmm...

[GaWx]

0Z UK: best for track, not intensity! Much further S than GFS and near CMC. This goes ENE S of Naples (12Z was between Naples and Ft Myers). Reminds me of Ian, when UK was furthest S days in advance and ended up best with Icon 2nd:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 22.4N  91.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 07.10.2024   60  22.4N  91.0W     1003            30
    0000UTC 08.10.2024   72  22.2N  89.3W     1001            27
    1200UTC 08.10.2024   84  22.8N  87.4W      998            30
    0000UTC 09.10.2024   96  23.6N  85.0W      997            31
    1200UTC 09.10.2024  108  24.8N  82.5W      997            34
    0000UTC 10.10.2024  120  26.5N  79.6W      998            36
    1200UTC 10.10.2024  132  29.3N  75.2W      999            45
    0000UTC 11.10.2024  144  30.6N  68.7W     1000            47
    1200UTC 11.10.2024  156  31.7N  62.6W     1001            47
    0000UTC 12.10.2024  168  32.8N  55.9W     1002            39

 

[TPAwx]

17 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

That run would be bad news.  Wild. 

meant to drop this here

[Windspeed]

GFS OP could just as easily swing back to a weak system on the 06z, and I will beat a dead horse and reiterate that we may see big swings between mere 6 hour runs due to the tightrope in which this system will have to walk to become a strong hurricane. That being said, it is a bit ridiculous that a global operational run intensifies a system to the brink of major hurricane strength within 72 hrs from TCG. I really hope that's just a random crap OP run.

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS OP could just as easily swing back to a weak system on the 06z, and I will beat a dead horse and reiterate that we may see big swing between mere 6 hour runs due to the tightrope in which this system will have to walk to become a strong hurricane. That being said, it is a bit ridiculous that a global operational run intensifies a system to the brink of major hurricane strength within 72 hrs from TCG. I really hope that's just a random crap OP run.

The GFS so far is on its own with a central FL landfall:

-UK, CMC, and ICON are all S of Ft. Myers 

-JMA 72 (end) implies SW FL most likely

-GFS and CMC were way too far NW with Ian. Euro was also quite a bit too far NW but not as bad. UK (SW FL) was the best. Icon 2nd best.

[GaWx]

Icon has had landfall SW FL since way back with 12Z 10/1 run. UK has had SW landfall last 2 runs (first runs with this). The UK/ICON duo, especially UK, was furthest SE with Ian days in advance and were best by far. Euro and especially GFS/CMC were significantly too far NW (GFS/CMC had several runs way up in panhandle!) Food for thought.

Euro next!

[GaWx]

0Z Euro ~Port Charlotte, S of 12Z’s Sarasota

[Normandy]

unfortunately I’m bullish on this one too. GOM version of Lenny

[tiger_deF]

24 minutes ago, Normandy said:

unfortunately I’m bullish on this one too. GOM version of Lenny

This is quite a rare case of EPAC-ATL crossover, but in the opposite direction! Typically Atlantic systems cross over to the EPAC, but this late season the crossover AOI from the EPAC to the Gulf of Mexico has worked in tandem with CAG-induced instability and vorticity in the region and produced a bonafide low pressure region with intense and persistent confection.

 

I’d still doubt major hurricane status given the northerly shear, but the setup is quite conductive for west to east GOM systems - a rarity even in the past 100 years. Will be interesting to see the evolution of this system, and how it interacts with the punishing high pressure, the trough to the North, and potentially even Leslie if it scoots across the peninsula fast enough.

[Hotair]

When we talk about a weak system moving into TB, are we talking weak as in weaker than what TB experienced with Helene as she stayed 150 miles offshore?  I’m gonna guess not.  
 

the area still has lots of debris  sitting in the open from the prior storm. Saturated ground, and compromised structures.   Any system moving water into the bay will be a major one-two punch for many here. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Hotair said:

When we talk about a weak system moving into TB, are we talking weak as in weaker than what TB experienced with Helene as she stayed 150 miles offshore?  I’m gonna guess not.  
 

the area still has lots of debris  sitting in the open from the prior storm. Saturated ground, and compromised structures.   Any system moving water into the bay will be a major one-two punch for many here. 

Currently the GFS’ Tampa is a N outlier vs all of the other major models being Sarasota and well S. For Tampa’s sake hopefully the large majority end up being right. Remember Ian? The Euro, GFS, and CMC were Tampa to FL panhandle.

[yoda]

2am is 50/80

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on 
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic 
Ocean.

1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low 
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and 
ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force.  
Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or 
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or 
early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the 
Gulf of Mexico.  Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the 
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas 
should monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of tropical 
or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over 
portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of 
Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[Windspeed]

Currently the GFS’ Tampa is a N outlier vs all of the other major models being Sarasota and well S. For Tampa’s sake hopefully the large majority end up being right. Remember Ian? The Euro, GFS, and CMC were Tampa to FL panhandle.

If I am gauging the ensemble and op runs correctly, it appears a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back ESE. A slower moving system gives time for the TC to get pushed further east than perhaps even ESE as the strong mid-level trough powers across the peninsula. You can even watch that flow evolve from the 850-400 hPa level and the mid-to-upper ST jet. That may explain why some of the slower modeling wants to bring this in down near Sarasota to even the Keys. Something to watch for with each modeling suite.

Edit: I should have said "a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back OUT OF THE W TO WNW."

[Normandy]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Currently the GFS’ Tampa is a N outlier vs all of the other major models being Sarasota and well S. For Tampa’s sake hopefully the large majority end up being right. Remember Ian? The Euro, GFS, and CMC were Tampa to FL panhandle.

If I am gauging the ensemble and op runs correctly, it appears a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back ESE. A slower moving system gives time for the TC to get pushed further east than perhaps even ESE as the strong mid-level trough powers across the peninsula. You can even watch that flow evolve from the 850-400 hPa level and the mid-to-upper ST jet. That may explain why some of the slower modeling wants to bring this in down near Sarasota to even the Keys. Something to watch for with each modeling suite.

I favor slower moving and stronger.  South of tampa. Maybe even Miami dade could be involved. Very wild setup 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

24 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Currently the GFS’ Tampa is a N outlier vs all of the other major models being Sarasota and well S. For Tampa’s sake hopefully the large majority end up being right. Remember Ian? The Euro, GFS, and CMC were Tampa to FL panhandle.

If I am gauging the ensemble and op runs correctly, it appears a faster moving system comes in further north as it doesn't allow time for the mid-level steering flow to arc back ESE. A slower moving system gives time for the TC to get pushed further east than perhaps even ESE as the strong mid-level trough powers across the peninsula. You can even watch that flow evolve from the 850-400 hPa level and the mid-to-upper ST jet. That may explain why some of the slower modeling wants to bring this in down near Sarasota to even the Keys. Something to watch for with each modeling suite.

The UKMET is as fast as the GFS but it is the furthest S.

[Windspeed]

The UKMET is as fast as the GFS but it is the furthest S.

Thanks. GEM was notably the slowest. It doesn't make landfall until around hour ~160.

[Ginx snewx]

Just your typical 946 into Tampa on the GFS....woah

[Windspeed]

Just your typical 946 into Tampa on the GFS....woah

Well, so much for expecting a big swing in intensity every 6 hour run. The 06z GFS was similar to the 00z, but a tick north and a tad stronger.

[purduewx80]

Still looks somewhat elongated, but I would think advisories start up today. It seems like the earlier intensification helps fight off some of the shear and sends 92L farther north. Most of the strongest members are on the north side of the ensemble suite. The outflow channel modeled on the 00/06Z GFS is a thing of beauty. 

[TPAwx]

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just your typical 946 into Tampa on the GFS....woah

Landfall appears closer to Homosassa/Crystal River.  Still a significant problem for TB.