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October 2024 General Discussion


Geoboy645
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48 minutes ago, Lightning said:

1.5" total for the weekend.  Looks like we are going back to a bit of dry pattern after today (don't mind in October).  Hopefully get a freeze one of the next couple mornings.

Exact same here - 1.50". Was not expecting it.

INCREDIBLE Fall weather this week. Great for the Fall color show.

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Storms missed me to the north by about 10 miles Saturday night, I got split by two cells Sunday afternoon, but I did cash in on about .10" of rain from lake enhancement last night. Almost lost an inflatable pumpkin due to some 40 mph gusts but managed to make the save before it rolled into the street.

Sunny today and refreshingly crisp. We should get a few lake effect showers this afternoon.

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Been blessed not to have as much cloudiness as forecast, yesterday afternoon was fine with sun out and then this morning I got hours of sunny breaks with modest clouding up after noon. No rain ever came! The Thanksgiving prize was instead of -1C it only made it down to 3C.

For any Canadians left here, happy Thankgiving! 

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2 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Been blessed not to have as much cloudiness as forecast, yesterday afternoon was fine with sun out and then this morning I got hours of sunny breaks with modest clouding up after noon. No rain ever came! The Thanksgiving prize was instead of -1C it only made it down to 3C.

For any Canadians left here, happy Thankgiving! 

Happy Thanksgiving to you as well :) 

If skies clear up tonight, YYZ will likely make it down to 2C (35F) as well. 

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My take on the aurora from Thursday night. Photographing one has been on my bucket list for a while, especially after not going out for the last big event back in May because I didn't think the clouds would clear in time over southern Wisconsin. :poster_oops:

Took me awhile to find a decent spot in rural western Dane County, away from the light pollution of Madison, where there wasn't a tree-lined ridge completely blocking the northern sky. Then of course when I finally found one it was right during a lull in activity. Eventually another substorm hit and a faint glow appeared in the northern sky, gradually brightening with some pillars visible to the naked eye, although the colors really weren't.

Aurora Borealis over Black Earth, WI 10/10/2024 1

 

Aurora Borealis over Black Earth, WI 10/10/2024 2

 

Aurora Borealis over Black Earth, WI 10/10/2024 3

 

Aurora Borealis over Black Earth, WI 10/10/2024 4

 

Aurora Borealis over Black Earth, WI 10/10/2024 5

 

Aurora Borealis over Black Earth, WI 10/10/2024 6

 

Aurora Borealis over Black Earth, WI 10/10/2024 7

 

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Upcoming pattern looks conducive for 2024 to tack on some more 70+ days to pad the record-breaking amount observed at Detroit. It seems likely the record is broken by more than an excess of one week over the former record of 159 days set in 2021 & 2012.

image.png.aec9e12cfe94c00f442c00f821d30117.png

"We do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you folks, we do a lot of firsts." - Donald J. Trump

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With 77 days left in the year, here's how 2024 ranks at Detroit for various temperature levels [down to 65F, won't go lower since there's likely to be a number of days in the 50-65F before the end of the year, so the rankings would be misleading at this point]. As noted, the record has already been set for 70+ days. If we can manage 2 more 75F days, we can tie that record too. I suspect the record for 65+ days may fall as well, and 60F+ is in play too. 

At higher levels of heat, sums are above the long-term medians, but not super high. It looks like Detroit is seeing a more equitable climate than in the past, as most of these moderately warm day records have been set in recent years.

95+: 2 days [tied 44th most]

90+: 14 days [tied 44th most]

85+: 38 days [tied 53rd most]

80+: 97 days [tied 5th most]

75+: 129 days [tied 2nd most]

70+: 163 days [record]

65+: 178 days [tied 7th most]

 

 

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It will also be interesting to see how many days with max temperatures at or below freezing occur at Detroit prior to January 1, 2025.

Currently, there have been 12 such days, which is the second least on record behind 2023 (7). What's insane about this statistic is that there have only been 19 days since January 1, 2023, where the max failed to reach 33F. Prior to 2023, the record for a single year was only 1 less than that (18, set in 2012, 2006 & 1931).

image.png.aa0df88b279043b5699345e96e2cf492.png

"We do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you folks, we do a lot of firsts." - Donald J. Trump

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17 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

With 77 days left in the year, here's how 2024 ranks at Detroit for various temperature levels [down to 65F, won't go lower since there's likely to be a number of days in the 50-65F before the end of the year, so the rankings would be misleading at this point]. As noted, the record has already been set for 70+ days. If we can manage 2 more 75F days, we can tie that record too. I suspect the record for 65+ days may fall as well, and 60F+ is in play too. 

At higher levels of heat, sums are above the long-term medians, but not super high. It looks like Detroit is seeing a more equitable climate than in the past, as most of these moderately warm day records have been set in recent years.

95+: 2 days [tied 44th most]

90+: 14 days [tied 44th most]

85+: 38 days [tied 53rd most]

80+: 97 days [tied 5th most]

75+: 129 days [tied 2nd most]

70+: 163 days [record]

65+: 178 days [tied 7th most]

 

 

Another way of looking at this equitable climate is to consider the number of days with a max temperature of at least 70F, but less than 85F (i.e, within the range of 70-84F).

The current record is 125 days, set in 2023 & 2024. There will be several more opportunities for such days this year, so Detroit should surpass 2023's sum. The pre-2023 record is 121 days from 1960, 2000, and 2004.

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14 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It will be interesting to see how many days with max temperatures at or below freezing occur at Detroit prior to January 1, 2025.

Currently, there have been 12 such days, which is the second least on record behind 2023 (7). What's insane about this statistic is that there have only been 19 days since January 1, 2023, where the max failed to reach 33F. Prior to 2023, the record for a single year was only 1 less than that (18, set in 2012, 2006 & 1931).

image.png.aa0df88b279043b5699345e96e2cf492.png

"We do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you folks, we do a lot of firsts." - Donald J. Trump

Not good numbers for the snowpack retention crew. Going to be exceptionally hard to retain snowpack with only a week or two of days at or below freezing.

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5 minutes ago, Baum said:

ouch. this thread got cluttered in a hurry. Beautiful crisp autumn morning with the first frost on the pumpkins against the backdrop of blue skies.. How can you not love the change of seasons?

Not trying to clutter anything. Just sharing some interesting statistics to be on the lookout for as we progress through the month of October.

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3 hours ago, Baum said:

ouch. this thread got cluttered in a hurry. Beautiful crisp autumn morning with the first frost on the pumpkins against the backdrop of blue skies.. How can you not love the change of seasons?

Some just like to clutter threads by talking and replying to themselves, in this case with nothing that has to do with October :lol:

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10 hours ago, Baum said:

ouch. this thread got cluttered in a hurry. Beautiful crisp autumn morning with the first frost on the pumpkins against the backdrop of blue skies.. How can you not love the change of seasons?

I do not care for the smell of dust being burned off the heat exchanger when I click the furnace on for the first time of the season.

Then there is that whole I can't keep warm because I have no natural insulation on my body. The hazards of being terminally skinny.

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