Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

keeping in mind also ... clouds and precipitation can lead a user impression into a bias ( ha ) because they tend to be awake during the day. 

i mean, i'm assuming you are referring to empirically measured/scalar diurnals, but just for everyone else ..  a wet day's average may in fact be higher and is attributed to nights staying above climo in wet patterns.    it 'feels' like shit out there, but is in fact often warmer than normal at night by  ( and here's the kicker! ) a greater amount than the day held cooler due to clouds and rain. the day may be -10, but the night was +10.5 ...

 

 

Yup...great point and thanks for adding that in as I was just talking about diurnally. This has been mentioned many times by various posters, but as you know, at least for our region, our degree of warming is greatest with overnight departures and its easy to see and understand why that is from a chemistry and thermodynamic perspective. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The northward shift is very real. Was talking about this with someone the other day but you look at accounts of how winter's were, even as far south as Washington DC several hundred years ago compared to now...it's insane. Sure there were accounts of some very warm winters there and such but the frequency now is much greater than it was back then. 

that's the key logical point that a surprisingly large number of folk, from all walks of society ...educated and not, seem to have trouble with. 

delta(frequency)

but there's a deeper issue than that, more of a sociological observation rather than a strictly met one.  heh.  i think there is a codified discipline called 'behavioral weather' - it studies stuff like full moons and humid nights and murder rates and creeped-out shit like that... as well as sad disorders, , too.  the stock market - guess all the bare market crashes ( or most of them...) in history happen in octobers - roughly when the sun is setting on everyone's hopes and dreams in lieu of a dark and dreary cold season, not being any sort of coincidence... etc.  group mechanics being melancholy and sensing doom from the oncoming darkness lends to modalities

i may be wandering in this statement at this point ...but, i've often mused that the greatest problem in the accepted ubiquity of the climate change is because it does not directly appeal to anyone's natural senses.   sight, sound, taste, touch, smell...   i mean, that's all changing now.  the sight of out of control wild fires, and piles of dead animals due to synergized heat waves of hadean proportions and the like, ... .yeah, it's starting to appeal in media.  but still, not enough of the ubiquitous peoples are really experiencing these aspects as 'pain' first hand, appealing to how they personally feel, then integrates group attitudes.  

haha... really simple.   if you hand someone an iron skillet and tell them the handle might be hot, most people will wait to register the heat before reacting.  hand them a cherry red handle, and they drop it before you even have to tell them.  that silly metaphor ... being so obvious as it may be, is just how dumb the 'human condition' is with global warming.  they are being told, and they are waiting...

  • 100% 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With more coming :( 

One look at the SST anomoly map tells you all you need to know....Marine heatwave east of Japan, cold pool south of AK, warm Atlantic, warm water around Australia...ugly to say the least

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nah best most vibrant fall in 40 years!

I think the whole obsession with colors is very weird but the colors look pretty meh to me. Some trees are more vibrant but for the most part they look like someone left skittles in their pocket for too long and the colors started to fade from body warmth. 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think the whole obsession with colors is very weird but the colors look pretty meh to me. Some trees are more vibrant but for the most part they look like someone left skittles in their pocket for too long and the colors started to fade from body warmth. 

Foliage is a northeast staple lol, when it’s done right it’s about as awe inspiring as any wx event. (Not taken this year)

DctF3pi.jpeg
 

AA0mn5V.jpeg

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We'll have cold spells this coming 4++ winter, too. Maybe a couple extending a week or more. If the snow coincides with them we'll remember it as  a not so bad winter. Memory plays a huge role in how we see the warming. An above average winter with a few frigid snowy spells can seem better than an average or below average one without snow. There's not a damn thing we can do about it, but putting on sackcloth and ashes this far ahead is kind of sad.

And who knows, that 3.3% chance of mighty cold and blizzards galore might just come through. Best to put on the mourning robes a bit further along. JMHO.

And, oh, by the way, the oaks in my area (Clinton MA) and on the way up to close our place in Maine were exceptionally bright. It might help some to put on their polaroids (rose color doesn't work) and make believe things are not just plalin sh***y and are only gonna get worse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It took time here in the valley but I’d say this is an above average foliage year. There are plenty of dull spots, but also plenty of trees where the color is legit spectacular—if only for a few days. 

Thanks. It was very good here too..starting to pass peak now some…but the end of last week, and over the weekend was spectacular. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

We'll have cold spells this coming 4++ winter, too. Maybe a couple extending a week or more. If the snow coincides with them we'll remember it as  a not so bad winter. Memory plays a huge role in how we see the warming. An above average winter with a few frigid snowy spells can seem better than an average or below average one without snow. There's not a damn thing we can do about it, but putting on sackcloth and ashes this far ahead is kind of sad.

And who knows, that 3.3% chance of mighty cold and blizzards galore might just come through. Best to put on the mourning robes a bit further along. JMHO.

And, oh, by the way, the oaks in my area (Clinton MA) and on the way up to close our place in Maine were exceptionally bright. It might help some to put on their polaroids (rose color doesn't work) and make believe things are not just plalin sh***y and are only gonna get worse.

Enjoy the torch

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, right?  It checks out.

MVL's normal high is 54F.  Yesterday was 79F for a +25 on the max.  Today is already 75F before noon.  

Last week when it was cold with mountain snow the departures were -4 to -8.

We are off-setting that with a +17 (Mon), +17 (Tue), and probably near +20 today.

So we swing from like a few days of -5F to a few days of +15 to +20 and it's easy to see how it averages out.

The trend looks to be valid but the numbers are a bit hyped.  So far in 2024 I've recorded 13 days with means at least +15 and 55 days at least -3.  However, the increased minima are a major driver of warming.  Last month's average diurnal range was 0.3° AN, breaking a run of 15 months with ranges BN, sometimes far BN.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This weather is great. More people should be happy. 

I’m thrilled. Who doesn’t like this? 74 here. About 8 degrees cooler than yesterday.  Feels great.  However, The hype is sickening, and so is the selling of a winter season that won’t start for 8 weeks yet.  
 

Just remember one thing…the Tropical season was supposed/forecast to be off the charts active. All the ingredients were there for it to be an incredibly active year. And How did that work out?   Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m thrilled. Who doesn’t like this? 74 here. About 8 degrees cooler than yesterday.  Feels great.  However, The hype is sickening, and so is the selling of a winter season that won’t start for 8 weeks yet.  
 

Just remember one thing…the Tropical season was supposed/forecast to be off the charts active. All the ingredients were there for it to be an incredibly active year. And How did that work out?   Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. 

GFS has Helene 2.0 LOL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Outside of some troughing over the Bearing Straight (which isn't really anything to write home about) its just anomalous ridging over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., Europe, and Russia on the GEFS. Just glancing but seems to me like the PV is stronger than usual for this point in the season? Something to watch moving deeper through the Fall. That is some mind blowing warmth in the Arctic region. 

Going to need something to really shake up the hemispheric pattern and something of subsidence. Probably going to need a few recurving typhoons. 

 

Dream on - west Pac has been well BN for ACE.  (So far.  Atlantic basin was significantly BN until this month.)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Dream on - west Pac has been well BN for ACE.  (So far.  Atlantic basin was significantly BN until this month.)

ehhh only takes one to get things moving/changing.

I recall some winters over the past few decades where the pattern was crap and then things changed quickly with a couple recurving typhoons. This isn't an area I really know much about but I know @Ginx snewx has talked about this many times over the years and sniffed out some of these changes from recurving typhoons. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...