Rocktober Obs/DISCO

[CoastalWx]

10 hours ago, WinterSnow said:

80s in late October? No thanks. Take it back!  If I wanted that I'd go back down south. And I don't. Guess I'll have to move up further north?? (my dad joked with me about this when I ranted about this to him earlier... but nah. I chose CT.)

Endless summer!!

[wokeupthisam]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

Wolfie, you think that temps will be below normal for a long enough period of time to cancel out all the warm departures over a longer duration?  Like in the long run?  Compared against “normals” that even rise every 10 years and cheat the temps from 50 years ago?

Or do you say that just as, there will be periods of colder than normal weather still?

I think we are going to continue to get short-duration higher-end cold season events (QPF rich storms into barely 0C thermals).  The mean thermals though will also continue to average out on the warmer than normal side with plenty of unfavorable parameters.

  Seems reasonable... Persistence Method (http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fcst/mth/prst.rxml) today equals tomorrow

"There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.

The first of these methods is the Persistence Method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degrees today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degrees tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow.

The persistence method works well when weather patterns change very little and features on the weather maps move very slowly. It also works well in places like southern California, where summertime weather conditions vary little from day to day. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.

It may also appear that the persistence method would work only for shorter-term forecasts (e.g. a forecast for a day or two), but actually one of the most useful roles of the persistence forecast is predicting long range weather conditions or making climate forecasts. For example, it is often the case that one hot and dry month will be followed by another hot and dry month. So, making persistence forecasts for monthly and seasonal weather conditions can have some skill. Some of the other forecasting methods, such as numerical weather prediction, lose all their skill for forecasts longer than 10 days. This makes persistence a "hard to beat" method for forecasting longer time periods."

...of course the persistence method works well, until it doesn't ; )

[dendrite]

[dendrite]

Kinda wild. My temp has been dropping since 730am. 32.5° with a heavy frost now.

[CoastalWx]

What a torch for early Novie. We grow into November and harvest for Thanksgiving. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yesterday's 44 matches the greatest diurnal I can recall living in this location now coming up on 15 years  ( about 13.5 years longer than I ever intended or really wanted to live here but that's sides the point...).   32 to 76

kfit was 45!!    28 to 73

36 was the low here this morning.  heavy car top frost after a high of 76 the previous afternoon, and probably at least that warm and likelier for 2 or so more, these are some impressive multi-day roller coaster rides.

[BrianW]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a torch for early Novie. We grow into November and harvest for Thanksgiving. 

I could post endless pictures of all the blooms going on here. Even Tolland is still harvesting peppers. Haha.

The maples are just stating to pop here...

 

[WinterWolf]

10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

 

Wolfie, you think that temps will be below normal for a long enough period of time to cancel out all the warm departures over a longer duration?  Like in the long run?  Compared against “normals” that even rise every 10 years and cheat the temps from 50 years ago?

Or do you say that just as, there will be periods of colder than normal weather still?

I think we are going to continue to get short-duration higher-end cold season events (QPF rich storms into barely 0C thermals).  The mean thermals though will also continue to average out on the warmer than normal side with plenty of unfavorable parameters.

Here’s what I think, the dry period that we’ve been in, will flip at some point. And I’m fine with it being dry now, when we are in September and October.  As we approach Thanksgiving(it’s late this year) and beyond, then the dry pattern can hopefully flip some. That’s what I was meaning when I said it’ll even out at some point. 
 

The temps don’t bother me one bit.   I absolutely don’t worry about any of that stuff at all.  It’s been a gorgeous mid August to now.  I actually don’t think it could have been a better two months than we’ve had weather wise, with very comfortable temps and dry weather.  Now I’ll enjoy this incredible stretch here, and await what comes later in the late fall, and winter.  It will always be cold enough to snow here in the winter imo. So that’s how I feel.  
 

Whether it’s a short burst, or a more prolonged spell of winter, or back and forth, is ok with me. It’s never wire to wire in SNE. So I don’t ever expect that. We’ve seen some great winters the last 30 years here. And we’ve seen some complete duds too. It’ll be like that long after I’m dead and gone as well.  Let’s see what this year brings…I’m looking forward to it.  Maybe it sucks?  Maybe it won’t be bad at all?  Kind of cool that we don’t know what to really expect in that regard.  
 

Gonna-be a great Sunday…let’s enjoy as much of it as we can.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Many 80’s coming next few days 

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kinda wild. My temp has been dropping since 730am. 32.5° with a heavy frost now.

Mount up ?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

A bit of an inversion again this morning.

MWN 45°
HIE 25°

And CON 28° in reference with this…

We’ll take the snow . 

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What a torch for early Novie. We grow into November and harvest for Thanksgiving. 

Love it. The more we can shorten the season the less I dread it. Get a little snow and cold for the holiday season. Torch it up before Xmas day. Keep it above 0F throughout. Then get a nice little 2 week stretch in Jan or Feb and call it an A+ winter. 

[CoastalWx]

I’d like snow on Christmas though if that’s possible. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like snow on Christmas though if that’s possible. 

Maybe when Wolfie’s cooling climate starts kicking in. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Maybe when Wolfie’s cooling climate starts kicking in. 

Maybe he’s predicting an asteroid hitting?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe he’s predicting an asteroid hitting?

He’s blinded by the vicious vibrant foliage maybe? Like driving westbound into the settling sun 

[Damage In Tolland]

Those ensemble runs look like 75-80 around Helloween into Nov. Couid be challenging all time record highs especially with the drought and dry ground 

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The temps don’t bother me one bit.   I absolutely don’t worry about any of that stuff at all.  
 

I just want to be clear, I wasn’t worried or even trying to imply worry when asking you if it “truly evens out over time.”

Not sure why there’s always this assumption of worry or not.  We are just talking about a climate trend that’s fairly undeniable.  Nothing else is loaded into those statements.

[rimetree]

The weather barrier is starting to get old now. At this rate, the "desert of Maine" will be encroaching on my backyard. 2.37" of rain since August 26. Keep looking for signs of a shake-up but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. At least the lows have consistently been in the 30s now with some frost most days.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, rimetree said:

The weather barrier is starting to get old now. At this rate, the "desert of Maine" will be encroaching on my backyard. 2.37" of rain since August 26. Keep looking for signs of a shake-up but that doesn't seem to be in the cards. At least the lows have consistently been in the 30s now with some frost most days.

Thats a full inch more than here since Aug 20. 

[kdxken]

Clear as a bell. Almost too nice to believe. 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

View of my hill this morning taken from Tolland Green which at 650’. Foliage very  dull with scattered bright red sugar maples here and there. That seems to be the only species vibrant this year .

[Typhoon Tip]

heh ...i'm so damaged and jaded to the whole thing at this point if it were a 70 f winter i don't think i'd be very putt off by that any longer

lived without winter too long to give as much a shit about it.   turns out... winter can be an awesome time to do outdoor sports if/when it is balmy and warm - wow

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I just want to be clear, I wasn’t worried or even trying to imply worry when asking you if it “truly evens out over time.”

Not sure why there’s always this assumption of worry or not.  We are just talking about a climate trend that’s fairly undeniable.  Nothing else is loaded into those statements.

And I just want to be clear….we live in New England. It will snow! It will get cold!  I enjoy all different weather. What we’re having currently is awesome, and what we had last week was too. 
 

You constantly bring it up.  You know where I stand.  I’ve made it abundantly clear that it’s warmed and cooled before in history, and prehistory.  This is no different in my opinion.  But That’s just my opinion. You have yours.
 

And there is no assumption …you like to badger me on this. I’m not appreciating it.  You feel it’s undeniable, I DO NOT.  So I’m going to leave it at that.  

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I just want to be clear, I wasn’t worried or even trying to imply worry when asking you if it “truly evens out over time.”

Not sure why there’s always this assumption of worry or not.  We are just talking about a climate trend that’s fairly undeniable.  Nothing else is loaded into those statements.

We are going beyond typical climate trends. The averages are rising at an exponential pace. 

A lot of people are still living in denial though...maybe once a Pac NW style heat ridge hits and everyone's 110+ for days with the entire power grid shutting down is when people will notice. 

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And I just want to be clear….we live in New England. It will snow! It will get cold!  I enjoy all different weather. What we’re having currently is awesome, and what we had last week was too. 
 

No kidding, no one said it won’t snow.  Where was that said?  I’m watching snow melt as I type this .

I don’t know why this topic gets people so tweaked.  It’s just a casual discussion of something that’s happening… like the sun rising and setting.

We literally believe the same thing, it’s warmed and cooled before in history and we are on the warm swing now.  Isn’t that undeniable?  This is the warm swing. Like I don’t know why it’s so combative?

Just imagine we are discussing increasing precipitation amounts.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, powderfreak said:

No kidding, no one said it won’t snow.  Where was that said?  I’m watching snow melt as I type this .

I don’t know why this topic gets people so tweaked.  It’s just a casual discussion of something that’s happening… like the sun rising and setting.

It’s fine…I’m not tweaked. But Did you see the post before yours? He’s worried about a 110 degree heat wave for days at some point, and the grid failing. Are ya kidding me.  And That’s my point.  Lmfao. 
 

Im done talking about this.  I’m enjoying this weather. And I’m not concerned with exceeding typical climate trends like SnoSki is. 

[powderfreak]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s fine…I’m not tweaked. But Did you see the post before yours? He’s worried about a 110 degree heat wave for days at some point, and the grid failing. Are ya kidding me.  And That’s my point.  Lmfao. 
 

Im done talking about this.  I’m enjoying this weather. And I’m not concerned with exceeding typical climate trends like SnoSki is. 

Yes the hyperbole doesn’t help any discussion and there’s a lot of hyperbole in society on all sides of the coin.

All I was saying is we are in a warming period on the long term curve.  Not worried about it and not making any assumptions on 10,000 years from now or what caused it or what to do about it.  Don't really care about that to be honest.  Just it is what it is.

Enjoy the awesome Sunday weather Wolfie.

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yes the hyperbole doesn’t help any discussion and there’s a lot of hyperbole in society on all sides of the coin.

All I was saying is we are in a warming period on the long term curve.  Not worried about it and not making any assumptions on 10,000 years from now or what caused it or what to do about it.  Don't really care about that to be honest.  Just it is what it is.

Enjoy the awesome Sunday weather Wolfie.

I Agree with you whole heartedly on that Freak.
 

And You enjoy as well, in that beautiful area you live in…your area is gorgeous. 

[SnoSki14]

12z GFS op is CC on roids. No rain at all and 80s into Minnesota to start November. 

If you're not alarmed then idk what to tell you