Rocktober Obs/DISCO

[Chrisrotary12]

After today it’s back to boredom. 

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Its 80+ in spots 

No

[weatherwiz]

It is FREEZING. This is absolutely miserable, brutal, and not fun. Want to put the heat on so badly but have to get the furnace serviced but I feel like I am in an ice box. Hands are frozen. 80's and 90's are so much more enjoyable. Literally have to wait another 8 months until we get consistently great weather....the North SUCKS

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is FREEZING. This is absolutely miserable, brutal, and not fun. Want to put the heat on so badly but have to get the furnace serviced but I feel like I am in an ice box. Hands are frozen. 80's and 90's are so much more enjoyable. Literally have to wait another 8 months until we get consistently great weather....the North SUCKS

we turned the heat on in my house.. not my choice though. I love this weather and wish we had it all year long

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

we turned the heat on in my house.. not my choice though. I love this weather and wish we had it all year long

The differentiator is the clouds. This becomes much more tolerable when there is Sun and winds are light. Like if it was 50 right now with bright Sun, it wouldn't be terrible. But these cloudy days, especially when we're dealing with the late sunrises and early sunsets, freaking brutal in the mood department. 

[SouthCoastMA]

sometimes it feels like we have a force field here, missing storms to west and east, .08 so far

[WinterSnow]

This is like peak autumn weather, though - Cloudy, foggy, misty, upper 40s! It's a beautiful day to go see the leaves as the sun isn't washing their color out.

I don't have SAD, though, so I cannot relate to the hit to one's mood. Sunny weather does not help my mood, in fact it makes my mood worse. I become more irritable. *sigh* While I'm glad I don't have SAD, I sure do hate always feeling like the odd-one-out in terms of this. Everyone else in my family loves the sun and I believe they have SAD.

[powderfreak]

SLK been under 1sm mile in snow this morning.  

[SouthCoastMA]

42 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

we turned the heat on in my house.. not my choice though. I love this weather and wish we had it all year long

it's never the guys choice. I'm fighting that battle in my home as well..holding out for Nov 1st but I'm sure I'll cave before then

[Chrisrotary12]

Heat and pellet stove went on last week.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Its 80+ in spots 

 

[DavisStraight]

16 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

This is like peak autumn weather, though - Cloudy, foggy, misty, upper 40s! It's a beautiful day to go see the leaves as the sun isn't washing their color out.

I don't have SAD, though, so I cannot relate to the hit to one's mood. Sunny weather does not help my mood, in fact it makes my mood worse. I become more irritable. *sigh* While I'm glad I don't have SAD, I sure do hate always feeling like the odd-one-out in terms of this. Everyone else in my family loves the sun and I believe they have SAD.

Kicks in for me when we turn the clocks back and baseball is over. A good snowstorm goes a long way to helping me get into a good mood.

[weatherwiz]

I don't think this place is well insolated. If its above 60/70 outside it gets hot in the house and the house must retain alot of heat because at night, even if its in the 50's it can be very warm. Even last week when it got down into the 40's or 50's at night, we had the bedroom AC on. But once it turns cool its become downright freezing...says its only 63 in here . 

[WinterWolf]

I clicked mine on this morning for the first time…64 in here was it for me, so on it went.  Just to get the chill out. 68 in here now, and that’s much better, and fine for October.  

[kdxken]

 

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

This is like peak autumn weather, though - Cloudy, foggy, misty, upper 40s! It's a beautiful day to go see the leaves as the sun isn't washing their color out.

I don't have SAD, though, so I cannot relate to the hit to one's mood. Sunny weather does not help my mood, in fact it makes my mood worse. I become more irritable. *sigh* While I'm glad I don't have SAD, I sure do hate always feeling like the odd-one-out in terms of this. Everyone else in my family loves the sun and I believe they have SAD.

I’m like you…clouds and cool and damp days don’t bother me one bit.  I like the sun too, but fine when it’s not out either.  Long nights and short days I enjoy.  Again, we are in the vast minority, but that’s fine with me. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Its 80+ in spots 

Ok, I will give you this... You said in a previous post several days back that we were going to see an extended period of 70+. I had disagreed and said maybe a few days. Well... It does look like a solid week ( or a bit more ) of 70's. But I don't see 80's ( although there is one/two days where they have 78..so I guess it's possible ). Either way... What a stretch. I think this would be considered an Indian Summer, correct?

Remember.... What goes up must come down. So, my gut would say in about 2-3 weeks, we may see some pretty frigis air. But time will tell.

[Damage In Tolland]

Some of the thickest fog I have ever seen here this morning. And we get a lot ….cannot see more than a few feet 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It is FREEZING. This is absolutely miserable, brutal, and not fun. Want to put the heat on so badly but have to get the furnace serviced but I feel like I am in an ice box. Hands are frozen. 80's and 90's are so much more enjoyable. Literally have to wait another 8 months until we get consistently great weather....the North SUCKS

Well... This is where we live ( having more people than not that are here are looking forward to the winter months ). 

My husband other hand would agree with you. He is not a cold weather or winter fan. Our 11-year-old daughter can go either way, but she does get excited when you see snow ( partially because she hopes for school cancellation lol ). 

But it's going to be chilly the next 3 days. I did put on two of our mini splits in the living room and family room ( sides opposite sides of the house ) last night because it was chilly.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well... This is where we live ( having more people than not that are here are looking forward to the winter months ). 

My husband other hand would agree with you. He is not a cold weather or winter fan. Our 11-year-old daughter can go either way, but she does get excited when you see snow ( partially because she hopes for school cancellation lol ). 

But it's going to be chilly the next 3 days. I did put on two of our mini splits in the living room and family room ( sides opposite sides of the house ) last night because it was chilly.

The snow makes the cold more tolerable so hopefully we have least have a snowy winter. But outside of snow there is just no use for this type of weather. If you're involved in physical activity it's not so bad but it takes so much longer for your body to get going. The cold makes me cramp so easily and it seems to get worse every year. I get cramps in my arms when I had them in  folded position for a certain amount of time and then stretch them out. I'll even get like cramps in my throat which is odd. 

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

heh ... not going to say they are wrong out of hand - haven't read their afd philosophy but in so far as the veneer of this graphic above i'm not sure i agree with that assessment

[bwt3650]

18 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I bet it’s snow up top.  Snow level here is like 3,200ft.

Im down in the base again and you can still see that distinct visibility change above the snow line where it goes from clearer to milky white above.

Are you there tomorrow?  I think you could get smoked for a time at 1900ft.

BTV has snow mixing to valley floors. 925mb temps -1C to -2C in steady precip on GFS/NAM could get it down low tomorrow.

Yes, til afternoon.  Finally switched over to snow here at 1900'...slushy coating so far 

[bwt3650]

16 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What ski mountain is that?

Yeah, it's Jay.  You can't see the ridgeline from that angle so it only shows the from of Tramside up to about 3200'

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Yes, til afternoon.  Finally switched over to snow here at 1900'...slushy coating so far 

Yeah saw flakes on the Rt 242 VTrans camera.

[bwt3650]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah saw flakes on the Rt 242 VTrans camera.

3k nam, though overdone, is pretty wild for up here through weds.

[powderfreak]

Just now, bwt3650 said:

3k nam, though overdone, is pretty wild for up here through weds.

That 3k is almost un-useable for the ridgelines.  It turns rime and fog into into a lot of precip.  I hate that model for the ridgelines .

It’ll show like 3 feet of snow, the globals will show 6” and the mountains will get 12” and everyone is like see the NAM knew.  No, the NAM showed 3 feet, lol.

Panels like this are usually very bogus IMO…. and it all adds up fast in the like aggregate. Maybe a tenth in 6-hours but not like 0.30-0.50” on the ridges.

[bwt3650]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That 3k is almost un-useable for the ridgelines.  It turns rime and fog into into a lot of precip.  I hate that model for the ridgelines .

It’ll show like 3 feet of snow, the globals will show 6” and the mountains will get 12” and everyone is like see the NAM knew.  No, the NAM showed 3 feet, lol.

Panels like this are usually very bogus IMO…. and it all adds up fast in the like aggregate. Maybe a tenth in 6-hours but not like 0.30-0.50” on the ridges.

Yeah, no way I was implying we would see those clown numbers...but the look of upslope after it passes through Weds is pretty impressive for mid October....Even the GFS has a robust burst late Tues/Early Weds.  There should be some cool shots of decent snow up at 3500-4000' Wednesday.  

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Yeah, no way I was implying we would see those clown numbers...but the look of upslope after it passes through Weds is pretty impressive for mid October....Even the GFS has a robust burst late Tues/Early Weds.  There should be some cool shots of decent snow up at 3500-4000' Wednesday.  

Oh for sure, I think a foot at the summits by Wednesday AM is in play.  That was just a knee jerk reaction by me (my bad) as I see the 3KM shared so much on social media with people dropping pins right over the mountains and seeing 25" Jay, 20" Mansfield and then asking why forecasts aren't calling for two feet.

I like the HRRR's precip scheme... however that resolves the terrain looks a lot more like reality than how the 3km NAM resolves the terrain.  Check out these side by side comparisons for a 12-hour QPF total.

The HRRR on the right looks more like what usually happens.  Maxes over the peaks but not like 1.0" QPF next to a trace.  Upslope can be pretty stark differences over short distances, but the HRRR precip spread looks more like what often happens.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m like you…clouds and cool and damp days don’t bother me one bit.  I like the sun too, but fine when it’s not out either.  Long nights and short days I enjoy.  Again, we are in the vast minority, but that’s fine with me. 

I would have preferred a dry weekend to do the leaves.   But they can wait

[Typhoon Tip]

not trying to troll the interest in the near term cold shot - it's impressive.  but i really ( personally ...) think that focus is eclipsing a potentially bigger story.. 

2 facets: 

- scalar achievement in warm anomaly

- the delta between tue-thur and the weekend in itself

both these records have an outside shot of being reset this sat and sun at hartford, ct

October 19	82	1963
October 20	81	1969