Rocktober Obs/DISCO

[CoastalWx]

57 minutes ago, masonwoods said:

Went back to Thu Oct 3rd and found a comment where Scott said HoarfrostHubb could get a frost this week.  On Tues Oct 8 Kdxken posted a comment from NWS that there was a moderate risk for a more widespread frost Oct 16-17.  Other than that, any frost comments were related to NNE.

Yes and he may see patchy frost tomorrow morning. Same with other radiators. 

[SouthCoastMA]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing like dragging sprinklers around on Oct 10.

Damn, I just came back in from moving my sprinkler. finishing up some seed work. oct 10, no problem

[Typhoon Tip]

haven't seen any cu with virga cloaks around them.   need to see that first

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

underground automatic irrigation system here, FTW 

I usually have it turned off and winterized by now, not this year.  If we get some decent rain this weekend, I may finally put it to bed for the winter.

Seems like wagons north on anything over a few showers. At least in CT . 
Just over an inch here since Aug 20 or so 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

 

Broke and swinging like a dead branch on my oak tree. 

Did it fall off like an acorn?

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Did it fall off like an acorn?

As soon as Kevin walked by. Right on his head.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

As soon as Kevin walked by. Right on his head.

Like when i was in the woods the last 2 days hunting, I should be wearing a hard hat, Got a bit smarter yesterday afternoon and sat under a pine tree.

[Snowcrazed71]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like wagons north on anything over a few showers. At least in CT . 
Just over an inch here since Aug 20 or so 

Well, are you surprised by this??? We've had over a year ( maybe more ) of above normal precip. Something had to snap back the other way. Let's hope we get all the dry weather out of the way over the next few months so we can have a normal ( fingers crossed ,, above normal ) precip for later December through March. We shall see.

[wokeupthisam]

3 hours ago, wx2fish said:

Broke the . Hate to see it

 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm dreading the season. Last two years took a toll, it was literally depressing for me. This is the first time I've ever felt that way. Hoping for the best.

I recall the years when SNE was enjoying big snows, seasoned posters saying folks were getting spoiled and reminding to enjoy it while it lasted.  Ones who lived thru the 1980s referencing the contrast, how bad it was and how much it would suck if futility returned.  Aaand... Here we are, albeit with the bonus of constant allusion to endless warming, no wonder the frost has gone off the pumpkin so to speak...

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said:

 

I recall the years when SNE was enjoying big snows, seasoned posters saying folks were getting spoiled and reminding to enjoy it while it lasted.  Ones who lived thru the 1980s referencing the contrast, how bad it was and how much it would suck if futility returned.  Aaand... Here we are, albeit with the bonus of constant allusion to endless warming, no wonder the frost has gone off the pumpkin so to speak...

Trust me, I expect regression as a meteorologist. But the last two seasons were just an extension of Fall. Awful awful weather. 

[wokeupthisam]

Right, and as one who suffered thru those 1980s I think the futility was of a different sort.  I remember several years of bone numbing cold shots blowing across bare or lightly dusted ground.  That gave the sense of being in winter despite missing snowstorms in every way possible - the last two years haven't had that type of cold in SNE.

[dendrite]

Okay it feels like fall this evening

47.4° and windy

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Okay it feels like fall this evening

47.4° and windy

Yeah windy and chilly. 

[bwt3650]

Doom and gloom if you like cold and snow.  That's the important part.  The assumption is you do enjoy cold, snow, winter.
I honestly can't blame people who are beaten down though.  It's been a tough few years for some folks on here.  And it is getting warmer.  I mean, we haven't seen a below normal month up here since last November.  But it still is going to snow, it's just interesting to me how much warmer than normal it seems to be on average.  Though I totally get people see that as doom and gloom; that's not what I'm trying to do.  I'd talk about it the same if we were below normal every month since last November.

You’re reasonable and look to facts. If you post that the month ran a plus 3, then that’s what it is. But some would have you think that one of the snowiest decades since records started being kept occurred during the revolutionary war, not 10 years ago. It’s been warm in vt, but not everywhere has been as extreme. I just picked a random CT city and looked at the departures and the last two months both Aug and sept were actually BN (unless I’m reading it wrong which is always a possibility). If you read some of the stuff over the last two months, you would think CT was an island on the sun. So while I get some only want torches and humidity, (yes, not everyone has to love snow and cold) call the ridiculous posts what they are…implying that peaks in NE were always white in early/mid October way back, but now, that never happens ignores that it has happened the last 3 years in a row, the earliest of the 3 being this year.


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[bwt3650]

Trust me, I expect regression as a meteorologist. But the last two seasons were just an extension of Fall. Awful awful weather. 

There is no denying the last two seasons in southern New England and the northern mid Atlantic were as trash as can be.


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[Typhoon Tip]

you should be zero biased, period.  

this goes for everywhere in life, except for one circumstance, and only that circumstance: any argument with  your gf or wife

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

You’re reasonable and look to facts. If you post that the month ran a plus 3, then that’s what it is. But some would have you think that one of the snowiest decades since records started being kept occurred during the revolutionary war, not 10 years ago. It’s been warm in vt, but not everywhere has been as extreme. I just picked a random CT city and looked at the departures and the last two months both Aug and sept were actually BN (unless I’m reading it wrong which is always a possibility). If you read some of the stuff over the last two months, you would think CT was an island on the sun. So while I get some only want torches and humidity, (yes, not everyone has to love snow and cold) call the ridiculous posts what they are…implying that peaks in NE were always white in early/mid October way back, but now, that never happens ignores that it has happened the last 3 years in a row, the earliest of the 3 being this year.


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It’s a good microcosm of society today… social media has led to hyperbolism to the n-th degree.  There’s no middle ground, pick sides and stay with it.  Life is a team sport now, ha.

Every time you say something it needs to be a bit wilder and out there than the last time.

I mean this post I’m writing wouldn’t have even been allowed to happen 10 years ago … off-topic, bounce it.

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

You’re reasonable and look to facts. If you post that the month ran a plus 3, then that’s what it is. But some would have you think that one of the snowiest decades since records started being kept occurred during the revolutionary war, not 10 years ago. It’s been warm in vt, but not everywhere has been as extreme. I just picked a random CT city and looked at the departures and the last two months both Aug and sept were actually BN (unless I’m reading it wrong which is always a possibility). If you read some of the stuff over the last two months, you would think CT was an island on the sun. So while I get some only want torches and humidity, (yes, not everyone has to love snow and cold) call the ridiculous posts what they are…implying that peaks in NE were always white in early/mid October way back, but now, that never happens ignores that it has happened the last 3 years in a row, the earliest of the 3 being this year.


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100% CORRCT!  I’m glad you’re pointing this out.  The rhetoric is complete BS in CT. Been a very comfortable late summer. And autumn is behaving like autumn here.  

[bwt3650]

It’s a good microcosm of society today… social media has led to hyperbolism to the n-th degree.  There’s no middle ground, pick sides and stay with it.  Life is a team sport now, ha.
Every time you say something it needs to be a bit wilder and out there than the last time.
I mean this post I’m writing wouldn’t have even been allowed to happen 10 years ago … off-topic, bounce it.

100 percent. That’s the point of my tirade. In summer, I’m all about 90 degree days and the beach..in winter, 3 foot snowstorms…but not everything is “it might never frost, freeze, snow, rain etc.” again. I tell my kids all the time in sports; act like you’ve been there before…no need for the drama.


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[SJonesWX]

spent an hour outside trying to enjoy the last hour of sun with an ice cold beer or 5. Had to fire up the propane heater

[powderfreak]

Still way to cloudy up here to view the Northern Lights.  Should be a banger tonight for some areas.

Breezy upslope flow though keeping us socked unfortunately.  Was still getting some drizzle an hour ago.

Rare very low diurnal temp swing today for us... low of 44F and max of 48F.  

[Childude645]

Too much light pollution in down town Edgartown for me to see but these shots are from a buddy in Chilmark MA on the vineyard

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Trust me, I expect regression as a meteorologist. But the last seven seasons were just an extension of Fall. Awful awful weather. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah tonight was as vivid as last May

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm dreading the season. Last two years took a toll, it was literally depressing for me. This is the first time I've ever felt that way. Hoping for the best.

We’ve kind of paid up the last half decade minus 1 storm really. Snoozer 

[dryslot]

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

100% CORRCT!  I’m glad you’re pointing this out.  The rhetoric is complete BS in CT. Been a very comfortable late summer. And autumn is behaving like autumn here.  

Goal posts are shifting rapidly. If temps for the past 2-3 months were compared to the 90s, 00s or even 2010s averages they would be several degrees above normal. 

Now when a month isn't top 5 warmest ever it's surprising. 

[Modfan2]

Down to 33F this am in E CT

[bwt3650]

Goal posts are shifting rapidly. If temps for the past 2-3 months were compared to the 90s, 00s or even 2010s averages they would be several degrees above normal. 
Now when a month isn't top 5 warmest ever it's surprising. 

The temps were based on data back to 1990 and if you accept the noaa climate data, the earths temp has risen by an average of .11 degrees f per decade. So while climate change is real, this is another example of hyperbole, thinking this year’s numbers would be “several” degrees above normal if compared to 2010s. And I believe if you were following that logic anyway and comparing to higher base numbers, this years temps would actually be more so below if your starting mean was higher, but I get your point.


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[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

The temps were based on data back to 1990 and if you accept the noaa climate data, the earths temp has risen by an average of .11 degrees f per decade. So while climate change is real, this is another example of hyperbole, thinking this year’s numbers would be “several” degrees above normal if compared to 2010s. And I believe if you were following that logic anyway and comparing to higher base numbers, this years temps would actually be more so below if your starting mean was higher, but I get your point.


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No. The normals are recalculated every 10 years for a 30 year period. So the 2010s were using 1981-2010. 1961-1990 was 2F+ colder than the current numbers up here for some months. I made a post about September normals at CON a couple weeks ago.