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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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I've never been to Kansas but last night reminded me of one of those evening nights in Kansas before a big severe weather outbreak in the Fall. Took the dog outside before the Bruins game at 6:52 PM and it felt like the scene in the beginning of Night of the Twisters where the guy is sitting in his truck and radioing back to the NWS "it doesn't feel right". 

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be that as it may re magnitude ...it's a short stay.   sort of a shirk on the original modeled ideas from last week.   whittled to a briefer visit at both ends, which is rather classic for this 'least excuse imagined to keep it chillier than originally modeled synoptic' region of the planet.

this is often what happens in apr/may warm ups at that end.  it's circa some d9+ or whatever and the charts have 3 days of bloom forcing balm.  and over time ... 20 hours having been robbed for by a front side retarding warm front passage.  meanwhile, the cold front's been speeding up by 21.3 minute amts per every run spanning those 9 days until it's cut in by almost 30 hours total on that side.    what was 3 days is now shortened by 50 hours - the whole time, the jaggov god of weather modeling thought we didn't see what the asshole was up to.   hahaha

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it is interesting that that model error is all but entirely dependable though.   i think it's just the warm side of the same error tendency, where the models are some 20 to 30% too amplified with cyclone patterning - in principle. perhaps in this case, the outlooks allow for unperturbed blooming ridge nodes because their not 'seeing' the physical limitations yet.

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that should be a really cold morning this sunday.    that kind of slow approach polar high stemming any wind down to ideal decoupling, just after a fresh insert of chilly caa at this time of year?    it'll cold shock strip the remaining leaves off the trees and rim smaller ponds with their first ice of the season in that NAM look.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that should be a really cold morning this sunday.    that kind of slow approach polar high stemming any wind down to ideal decoupling, just after a fresh insert of chilly caa at this time of year?    it'll cold shock strip the remaining leaves off the trees and rim smaller ponds with their first ice of the season in that NAM look.

Nice.  Camping Saturday night with my kids scout group.  Should be mid 20s up here.

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that should be a really cold morning this sunday.    that kind of slow approach polar high stemming any wind down to ideal decoupling, just after a fresh insert of chilly caa at this time of year?    it'll cold shock strip the remaining leaves off the trees and rim smaller ponds with their first ice of the season in that NAM look.

Ahead of the next 75-80 stretch 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ahead of the next 75-80 stretch 

mmm

i hope so.  believe me.  as someone that's turned to the dark side and hates and despises winter now ( unless there's an actual reason to like it, like a snow storm that all but cant happen here now despite everyone's ideas on reality - hopefully that pisses people off reading that ), i hope it is 72 f all the time.   

buuuuut since the no winter scenario is more likely going to express as 40 to 50 f wedge jobs we're left to dream.   lol

seriously though, the ens means suggest above normal is favorable, but these oper models, all of them, are running out and finding reasons to not expand within the telecon suggested potential   -

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Torch. A/c will be humming on Halloween 

Tomorrow will be the latest in the season I can ever remember having to use my A/C. The earliest was just after St. Patrick’s Day, 2012 when it hit 90 degrees

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heh  a.c. on tomorrow?    <_<

unless one lives in some special glowing circumstance like a shit apartment a mere wall away from a steam cleaning outfit ... turning on the ac tomorrow smacks as fulfilling a narrative  

 

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4 hours ago, 512high said:

Its Fall! Happy to see a bit of rainfall, but ready for cooler/colder temps. Enjoy the possible record temps Thursday.....

I hear ya, but I've learned to embrace the warm weather vs worry about cold and snow for 6 weeks a year. I love it still, but it's just easier if you accept warmth winning.

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

68 to 70 popping up along the Pike

53-55 along rt 2

fuggin one stubborn ass wedge job

just noticing now the day glow is rising out the windows... we may get some partial ceiling lift/sky lights going now.  

Clear out just in time for sunset so you can fog right back up. 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Tomorrow will be the latest in the season I can ever remember having to use my A/C. The earliest was just after St. Patrick’s Day, 2012 when it hit 90 degrees

AC for a few hours of upper 70's in the PM?  Not here-open some windows baby.   75 here presently but it will drop off quick once past 4pm or so

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

68 to 70 popping up along the Pike

53-55 along rt 2

fuggin one stubborn ass wedge job

just noticing now the day glow is rising out the windows... we may get some partial ceiling lift/sky lights going now.  

Sun popped an hour ago on the W end of RT 2.  Mid-60’s in Greenfield now. 

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