Rocktober Obs/DISCO

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

24F neighbors PWS, 25F MVL.

I wonder if you can get down near 10F?  Imagine single digits in October? It’s only 9pm.  Looking at it, you probably really slow the drop in the mid-teens, but damn that’s a fast drop into the teens.

You’ve got the solid snow cover too that should take an extra couple degrees off.

We hit 11° on 10/31/2020 and 12° on the same dater in 2002.  In the far north we had 7° on 10/30/1978, the year with 32 on 7/31 and 28 on 8/28.  Lots of dry air that year - total precip was only 26.65".  Both 1976 and 1983 had more than twice as much and the average was 40.28".

Got down to 17 here but clouds arrived about 5 AM, otherwise we'd have been 14-15.  Gray skies with light echoes overhead but nothing reaching the ground.  Anything falling would be frozen.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Anchorage getting lit up today. Not like we haven't seen that the past several winters.

How the hell does one forecast for Anchorage (or Alaska) in general? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

How the hell does one forecast for Anchorage (or Alaska) in general? 

Experience is a big plus there. I haven't forecasted there is a long time. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Experience is a big plus there. I haven't forecasted there is a long time. 

I wonder if NWS offices there have their own in-house models. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if NWS offices there have their own in-house models. 

IIRC HRRR was good there. They have some weird ageostrophic things going on there. Light N winds will help keep it frozen. However, strong S-SE winds there will minimize precip from downsloping. They tend to get heavier snows with mid level processes because that's less prone to downsloping. 

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Pretty much non stop mild to warm through mid November. A couple of days on the cooler side but that’s a mild look. 

Probably going to only order 2 pallets of pellets versus the usual 3 because I’m making it so far into this fall with the leftovers from last year. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Honestly, has there ever been a more boring October? 

[SouthCoastMA]

Already 55° here. Looks like we'll beat the mins/max forecasts in both directions due to the clear skies.

Edit: Temp already dipped to 53.8° so there's likely a cap on how warm we get in this airmass

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

We hit 11° on 10/31/2020 and 12° on the same dater in 2002.  In the far north we had 7° on 10/30/1978, the year with 32 on 7/31 and 28 on 8/28.  Lots of dry air that year - total precip was only 26.65".  Both 1976 and 1983 had more than twice as much and the average was 40.28".

Got down to 17 here but clouds arrived about 5 AM, otherwise we'd have been 14-15.  Gray skies with light echoes overhead but nothing reaching the ground.  Anything falling would be frozen.

It was a cold morning here, 19°F, Was in the ground blind at 6:45 am, I passed up this spike horn with the crossbow at 8:22 am this morning, He never saw me in the blind and i had the crosshairs right behind his shoulder at 19 yds, My blind is right next to this game cam, Only being allowed 1 buck, And i already have on the Cams, A 10, 2-8's, 2-6's and a 4 pointer, I did not want to waste the tag on a spike horn.

[WinterWolf]

Cloudy and cool here…50 degrees. Need the sun out. 

[WinterWolf]

47 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Honestly, has there ever been a more boring October? 

Since mid August here(10 weeks), it’s been ideal if you like sunny and dry comfortable weather. Hard to complain…but yes boring for us folks that enjoy some exciting weather. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Cloudy and cool here…50 degrees. Need the sun out. 

Chilly for sure, would be much different with the Sun out. The sky has that snow look too. 

[DavisStraight]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Since mid August here(10 weeks), it’s been ideal if you like sunny and dry comfortable weather. Hard to complain…but yes boring for us folks that enjoy some exciting weather. 

I can wait until December for the exciting weather, I'm enjoying this warm dry weather we've had, hope the switch flips right after Thanksgiving.

[ineedsnow]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Chilly for sure, would be much different with the Sun out. The sky has that snow look too. 

It really does have that snow look.. of course it's going to rain though 

[Lava Rock]

40.1F. Cold and cloudy

[WinterWolf]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

It really does have that snow look.. of course it's going to rain though 

It should be raining in October though.  I doubt we’ll see any rain here though.  It’s shocking that it’s cloudy out lol…haven’t seen that in weeks. 

[weatherwiz]

It's pretty wild seeing so many fronts just dry up as they move into the Northeast. Something you would expect moreso in late July and August versus late October and November. 

I hope though what we're seeing with the ridging across the East isn't an influence of or being driven by developing La Nina conditions. If that is the case and we're establishing what will be a more common presence and fixture moving through these next few months...that will not bode well for our winter prospects. NNE though could potentially cash in huge.  

[Ginx snewx]

NEMass burning down. AQ not so good, next mud slides on Mt Methuen

[ineedsnow]

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It should be raining in October though.  I doubt we’ll see any rain here though.  It’s shocking that it’s cloudy out lol…haven’t seen that in weeks. 

We had flakes yesterday which was nice to see. 

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

We had flakes yesterday which was nice to see. 

Ya I agree that’s cool.  But you know what I mean..it’s October lol. 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Honestly, has there ever been a more boring October? year?

FYP

[Snowcrazed71]

43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya I agree that’s cool.  But you know what I mean..it’s October lol. 

That's alright.... Kev is in the November thread already writing this Winter off.... True story...lololol

[Typhoon Tip]

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-bone-dry-october.html

"...Now it's almost 50% and growing, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

That fits the definition of "flash drought," which is different than normal slowly developing dry spells, said U.S. Department of Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey, a drought monitor author. A study last year showed that a warming world from the burning of coal, oil and gas is causing more frequent and damaging flash droughts, such as a $30 billion one that hit America in 2012 and a devastating 2022 drought in China...."

[Chrisrotary12]

5 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Honestly, has there ever been a more boring October? 

 

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

FYP

Honestly your not wrong 

[cleetussnow]

6 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Probably going to only order 2 pallets of pellets versus the usual 3 because I’m making it so far into this fall with the leftovers from last year. 

I have a pallet left over.  I need 4 to 5 to make it the whole way, so prolly get 4 and if I have leftovers, its all good.

[DavisStraight]

32 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I have a pallet left over.  I need 4 to 5 to make it the whole way, so prolly get 4 and if I have leftovers, its all good.

I usually go through almost 4 cords of wood, a ton of pellets seem to equal to a cord of wood.

[Modfan2]

Waiting for the 0.02” of rain to dampen the dust and then watch people think it’s ok to start burning leaves and brush again because of a shower

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes is very angry 

https://x.com/1degreeoutside/status/1851387539090964835?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Lava Rock]

Looking forward to a whole 0.1"

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes is very angry 

https://x.com/1degreeoutside/status/1851387539090964835?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Is he living off the land now?