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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like some showers Tuesday night, but mostly N of pike into VT/NH/ME. 

that general thunder area from SPC has to be an error. Thought maybe there was some elevated instability with the warm front but I see nada. 

But I wouldn't be shocked to see a well defined batch of heavier rain up north...that is some serious WAA and that nose of the jet should help (maybe that yields the risk for some thunder).

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22 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Congrats to NNE, where true winter can still be experienced. 

touched 39.9° for a low this morning

I do find it fascinating that in a sea of warmth overall, and in an extremely dry pattern, we’ve timed two snow events this October just right.

If someone was like October will be +3.5 and -2.00” precip… I’m not thinking that’s a recipe for multiple snow events at elevation, with one to the valley.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I do find it fascinating that in a sea of warmth overall, and in an extremely dry pattern, we’ve timed two snow events this October just right.

If someone was like October will be +3.5 and -2.00” precip… I’m not thinking that’s a recipe for multiple snow events at elevation, with one to the valley.

Just goes to show that timing can mean everything and even hold more weight than the overall pattern itself. 

This is why I've become less enthused with wetting my lips over D6-10 or D10+ EPS or ensemble H5 looks. It's one thing to get a "nice looking pattern" - which what does that even mean? but its a whole other ballgame getting the timing of all the pieces to work out. 

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that's one of the more impressive warm frontal events i've seen depicted on a modeled chart series in quite some time.   .. perhaps going back to that april 2010 one that sent mid 40s to mid 80s in 24 hours - the only difference between tomorrow and wednesday is that we don't have april insolation to work with.  so perhaps mid 40s 10am tomorrow to 77 at 21z wednesday will have to do to get the sensible point across... as far high t's on wed, preeetty sure machine numbers will labor and fail to rise to actuals with their climo dead weight.

but the synoptic warm front is every bit as impressive.  

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The only interesting snow event here since Jan 22 (almost 3 years ago), was the OES from Long Island sound that got MVY pretty good. Only an inch here, but the timing of it is what made it great (Dec 24th). I'd take something like that again...otherwise, big dog or bring the warmth. 

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26 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The only interesting snow event here since Jan 22 (almost 3 years ago), was the OES from Long Island sound that got MVY pretty good. Only an inch here, but the timing of it is what made it great (Dec 24th). I'd take something like that again...otherwise, big dog or bring the warmth. 

Feb 2022. Ever since then, every event has failed. Only semi-interesting one was the OES event earlier in Dec 2023. A little over an inch here, but 2-4" down just to my south. Every other event had that wonderful feeling of porkage..and that's not an embellishment. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

A rainless , frost and freeze less October . Something I would never thought possible . But yet here we are. Everything dead .Leafless trees , lawns that look like Oklahoma, dust all over everything, forests burning .. Steinbrenner’d

Some good sized fires around MA. Steinachusetts following Steinecticut. 

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A rainless , frost and freeze less October . Something I would never thought possible . But yet here we are. Everything dead .Leafless trees , lawns that look like Oklahoma, dust all over everything, forests burning .. Steinbrenner’d

Rainless for sure.  The other two things actually happened. But it’s been dry as hell. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's one of the more impressive warm frontal events i've seen depicted on a modeled chart series in quite some time.   .. perhaps going back to that april 2010 one that sent mid 40s to mid 80s in 24 hours - the only difference between tomorrow and wednesday is that we don't have april insolation to work with.  so perhaps mid 40s 10am tomorrow to 77 at 21z wednesday will have to do to get the sensible point across... as far high t's on wed, preeetty sure machine numbers will labor and fail to rise to actuals with their climo dead weight.

but the synoptic warm front is every bit as impressive.  

On that day, 4/10/10, Portland's temp rose from 59 to 84 in 15 minutes, triggered when the warm SW wind overcame a light easterly breeze.  I had a front row seat for the shift as I was in the waiting room at Mercy Hospital (wife had knee replacement) right on the Fore River.

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