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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe a below-average precip winter won't be the worst thing. I mean we have had some horrible luck with some of the above-average precip winter's lately not equating to above-average snow (at least for the region as a whole). With the regime we're in above-average precip seems to be coinciding with warmer winter patterns...below-average would probably indicate colder pattern and then we cash in with whatever precip maker we get.

Disclaimer: This is somewhat of a tongue-in-check post but somewhat serious too.

I would be interested in seeing stats RE the correlations, but intuitively speaking, our warm direction is usually form the SW and its difficult to remain exceedingly dry for very long with a predominate flow from that direction considering the broiling GOM.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be interested in seeing stats RE the correlations, but intuitively speaking, our warm direction is usually form the SW and its difficult to remain exceedingly dry for very long with a predominate flow from that direction considering the broiling GOM.

Would be interested in those stats as well and I 100% agree with you. I can't image us being dry very long in that sort of regime. The one exception I can think of is if we have an anomalous Southeast ridge with HP off the Southeast coast (que La Nina). Obviously in the summer this would be good for showers/thunderstorms but given the lack of instability during the winter that wouldn't be the case. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are some folks expecting the pattern to magically turn wet this winter lol? These huge ridges don’t just magically go away . Some of the dry analog falls close to this year were awful snow winters 

I think we’ll have wetness mid November into January and it should be warm and on the dry side February.  We’ll see.  Is this the year you had the very wet July?  

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29 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

I was looking at some too dry falls and Octobers and a bunch of them yielded hideous warm dry winters. I think that is  likely this winter . Not just in the northeast , but a lot of the country. Maybe this winter bucks that that trend, but if I were a LR guy writing a blog or issuing outlook, I’d have a very low snowfall and qpf winter . 

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5 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

It's pretty windy today and it's raining leaves, windy where you are?

Today was definitely breezy. But this was a couple of days ago when I came home. Was no wind, but when I pulled in my driveway after work the entire driveway And lawn was covered with a carpet of leaves. Not just a few but literally covered where I couldn't even see my driveway from the grass.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are some folks expecting the pattern to magically turn wet this winter lol? These huge ridges don’t just magically go away . Some of the dry analog falls close to this year were awful snow winters 

So there you go. We'll have a third year in a row of a snowless winter. You may very well be right. But I hope you're wrong.

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3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

That’s super impressive.  Driest two month combo on record?  Of all two month combos?

The chances of randomly running into some precipitation events over a 60 day period are high… even in a dry pattern.  Not one good rain event snuck through the webbed fingers?  I’m impressed.

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