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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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Reality, as in “near normal” will be like a day around here. Sunday, into Monday morning. Monday one of those 30F+swing days. Cold low. Around 30. But By Monday afternoon temps are going to be pushing AN again; 60ish.

The deepening -PNA trough is what’s making the transient cold shot possible. But it’s also the big boot with the upper level jet out of the pacific southwest with reach to our region by early Monday.

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56 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Today is another 70’s in the warmer locations in eastern SNE to seacoast NH. 
 

caa is weak/lagged a bit, so yeah ....the profile might still support some warmth.  however ...we're getting this near stationary quasi- ana frontal cloud band. 

might make that difficult if the sun doesn't come by noon.  but it's 63 -ish anyway, so it's not exactly a chilly air mass, no -  high launch pad. 

also, for the general reader - these cool pops should be 20 or so % devalued over guidance when beyond d5 or 6.   this is true because models, all of them, seem to over amplify cold oscillations out in time - may or may not be some sort of essence of a cc thing doing that... no idea the cause but its just become operationally expected, regardless.   it's true of cyclone intensity and complexion, too.   digress..  

at least through novie 2 or 3 out there, this is especially true as the base line telecon canvas offers very little support for much other than above normal.    i don't disagree that 'cold' shots end up closer to neutral, as they are really just going to be synoptics that are relative/embedded in the longer term warm hemisphere.  

seeing long range hints at a mode shift in the pna beyond, however.  never seen such a persistently positive west pacific oscillation tho. +epo/+pna type of november 10th

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might finally be a sign of some storminess after 11/3 or so. 

beat ya   lol

is it sunny and 70 there right now?    we got this stationary band of clouds here as the front is stalled waiting on that ocean morass to move past.  i hate it when randomness ruins it specifically here.  haha

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

beat ya   lol

is it sunny and 70 there right now?    we got this stationary band of clouds here as the front is stalled waiting on that ocean morass to move past.  i hate it when randomness ruins it specifically here.  haha

Sunny, but 65.

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16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS is pretty cold in the mornings at the rad pits to start next week…10s in NNE and low 20s CON/interior. It’s probably overdone a bit. 

might be interesting to test that.   we've had our discussions in the past about biases among machining but this looks about as ideal for a stone low rational free fall as can physically happen.  gotta get a kid or two through the pond ice i guess -

image.thumb.png.6d7b30f137f7bf52ee12930a7e837636.png

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16 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course, we are getting past peak now, leaves are dropping fast, and the oaks with the brown are starting to take center stage now.  
 

But Late last week, and especially over the weekend and into Monday, it was spectacular. 

Mid-October is oak-spotting time here.  Other deciduous trees are bare, and I sometimes spot smaller oaks whose existence had been hidden (including one less than 100 feet from where I sit).  One can spot oaks even while driving, impossible when all is green.  Pin oak, not native here but often planted in towns, usually offers a deep scarlet.  White oak will sometimes have a purplish hue.  Best of the rest is reddish-brown, like the 20-foot-tall N. red sapling outside of my window.

A lot of Maine sites reported 0.01-0.04".  Not a drop here in Franklin County.

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Not sure if anybody feels this way. But I really feel the trees are becoming more bare faster than they have been in several years. Although the color was really nice around here, the last few days, they've just fallen quickly. I'm sure a lot has to do with the lack of rain. I have a feeling we'll have a lot less leaves on the trees for Halloween than we've had in the last few years at least.

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36 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Not sure if anybody feels this way. But I really feel the trees are becoming more bare faster than they have been in several years. Although the color was really nice around here, the last few days, they've just fallen quickly. I'm sure a lot has to do with the lack of rain. I have a feeling we'll have a lot less leaves on the trees for Halloween than we've had in the last few years at least.

It's pretty windy today and it's raining leaves, windy where you are?

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14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hopefully not through March lol

Maybe a below-average precip winter won't be the worst thing. I mean we have had some horrible luck with some of the above-average precip winter's lately not equating to above-average snow (at least for the region as a whole). With the regime we're in above-average precip seems to be coinciding with warmer winter patterns...below-average would probably indicate colder pattern and then we cash in with whatever precip maker we get.

Disclaimer: This is somewhat of a tongue-in-check post but somewhat serious too.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe a below-average precip winter won't be the worst thing. I mean we have had some horrible luck with some of the above-average precip winter's lately not equating to above-average snow (at least for the region as a whole). With the regime we're in above-average precip seems to be coinciding with warmer winter patterns...below-average would probably indicate colder pattern and then we cash in with whatever precip maker we get.

Disclaimer: This is somewhat of a tongue-in-check post but somewhat serious too.

As good a theory as any…lol.  

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