Damage In Tolland Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 yesterdays almost imperceptible and unacknowledged bd front that drifted thru and injected an e to ese oceanic taint into the region, is consequentially holding temperatures down this morning. the warm days recently were fragile, just enabled by the larger surrounding synoptics... they were fragile because the air was so dry. but the imparting of wv from even that weak onshore flow penetrating inland, thermodynamically cooled the air mass closer to wb overnight. the morning dense fog around eastern zones was the tip off as a result, we are technically in the same synoptic arena as yesterday - until this front comes through later on .. - but with the inject of water resetting the llvs closer to the wet bulb, we are a full 10 f below yesterday at this time. hint, wet air takes more energy to raise the temp than does dry air. ...not that anyone asked. lol we'll see but it does seem difficult for 78 today now that the sun is laying down on the southern tree tips at zenith and only dumping in tepid energy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The absolute worst case scenario is a persistent Bering Sea vortex. Complete shutdown pattern. Even an AK vortex isn’t as bad and can be somewhat workable for you guys up there at your latitude…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 Damn fog is ruining my summer day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yesterdays almost imperceptible and unacknowledged bd front that drifted thru and injected an e to ese oceanic taint into the region, is consequentially holding temperatures down this morning. the warm days recently were fragile, just enabled by the larger surrounding synoptics... they were fragile because the air was so dry. but the imparting of wv from even that weak onshore flow penetrating inland, thermodynamically cooled the air mass closer to wb overnight. the morning dense fog around eastern zones was the tip off as a result, we are technically in the same synoptic arena as yesterday - until this front comes through later on .. - but with the inject of water resetting the llvs closer to the wet bulb, we are a full 10 f below yesterday at this time. hint, wet air takes more energy to raise the temp than does dry air. ...not that anyone asked. lol we'll see but it does seem difficult for 78 today now that the sun is laying down on the southern tree tips at zenith and only dumping in tepid energy. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 4 hours ago, moneypitmike said: What's the anniversary of the Roctober storm? One of teh all-timers for GC. I think Mitch who was living in Mass at the time had the JP with over 30. I had 22" of dry powder here. No power/tree issues. Plus we had 2+ inches 2 days before. Pretty incredible event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 52° The sun is trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like you've got this winter's snow hole already. That and Tip's 4++ every month and the guys who spent a ton of money going south are going to be ticked off that they could have just stayed home and had snowless warmth for free! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 Another warm day here already up to 68. Upton's 73 will likely be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 The last 3-4 years have been wild. We're either getting too much rain or can't buy any rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 67/60 here. Summertime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 When we BN it’s -3; when we AN it’s +15 Not a surprise when you consider our cold source regions are warming the fastest…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 Outside of some troughing over the Bearing Straight (which isn't really anything to write home about) its just anomalous ridging over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., Europe, and Russia on the GEFS. Just glancing but seems to me like the PV is stronger than usual for this point in the season? Something to watch moving deeper through the Fall. That is some mind blowing warmth in the Arctic region. Going to need something to really shake up the hemispheric pattern and something of subsidence. Probably going to need a few recurving typhoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 It is 75F at 11:05am. Holy crap. Previous record was 70F in 2020. METAR KMVL 231505Z AUTO 19015KT 10SM CLR 24/08 A2992 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: When we BN it’s -3; when we AN it’s +15 Not a surprise when you consider our cold source regions are warming the fastest…. That’s funny because sometimes when we’ve been toasty in the winter(much above) some parts of the world have record cold(Yakutsk). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 16 minutes ago, jbenedet said: When we BN it’s -3; when we AN it’s +15 Not a surprise when you consider our cold source regions are warming the fastest…. Ha, right? It checks out. MVL's normal high is 54F. Yesterday was 79F for a +25 on the max. Today is already 75F before noon. Last week when it was cold with mountain snow the departures were -4 to -8. We are off-setting that with a +17 (Mon), +17 (Tue), and probably near +20 today. So we swing from like a few days of -5F to a few days of +15 to +20 and it's easy to see how it averages out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 We understand averages I hope. The global average temperature increase is subtle precisely for this reason… Our region is warming much faster than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Ha, right? It checks out. MVL's normal high is 54F. Yesterday was 79F for a +25 on the max. Today is already 75F before noon. Last week when it was cold with mountain snow the departures were -4 to -8. We are off-setting that with a +17 (Mon), +17 (Tue), and probably near +20 today. So we swing from like a few days of -5F to a few days of +15 to +20. I think what's interesting too is when we're dealing with negative departures, it's not necessarily a product of just the airmass itself. It is usually related to either extensive cloud cover and/or precip or an unfavorable wind direction (though this ties more to coastal areas and is time-of-year dependent). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: We understand averages I hope. The global average temperature increase is subtle precisely for this reason… Our region is warming much faster than average. That’s good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Good post. yeah well... i guess the emphasis was on "we'll see" - i mean we actually just rocketed to 75 over the last hour so, it all caused just a delay sort of thing. the key is that the saturation at a higher temperature over previous nights ( because of the moisture source), was probably very shallow in the atmosphere. such that even the feeble sun combined with some wind was able to mix out that cool layer. anyway, last day of this warmth ...then some more seasonal days for week. looks like mid next week we might burst back to another warm anomaly of similar proportions to this exiting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 11 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I think what's interesting too is when we're dealing with negative departures, it's not necessarily a product of just the airmass itself. It is usually related to either extensive cloud cover and/or precip or an unfavorable wind direction (though this ties more to coastal areas and is time-of-year dependent). Yes, good nuance. It’s usually precip or maritime influenced… vs just like a straight yore air mass. I find the trend-line warming very interesting from a science observation standpoint (don’t care for the deeper sociopolitical undercurrents that often bleed into these discussions though). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 24 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s funny because sometimes when we’ve been toasty in the winter(much above) some parts of the world have record cold(Yakutsk). Better source region on that side of the globe... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yes, good nuance. It’s usually precip or maritime influenced… vs just like a straight yore air mass. I find the trend-line warming very interesting from a science observation standpoint (don’t care for the deeper socioeconomic undercurrents that often bleed into these discussions though). Even when we've had some below-average temperature airmasses (using 850 as a metric here), if we're getting Sun we are still finding a way to get very close to average (for daytime high). At some point you would have to think (or hope) we reach a tipping point. Could you imagine though even if we see another 3-5 years of warmth at the pace we're at? I've mentioned this several times over the years but one key metric for me is going to see how the globe responds once we flip the AMO to the negative phase. Even when the AMO does flip it will take several years to probably reflect on the global state but if we're deep into the negative AMO phase and still shattering warm records...then I think we're in big trouble. But we probably wouldn't even be deep into the negative AMO probably for another 30 years or so. I would imagine the AMO should start transitioning towards the end of this decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 Yakutsk is an arctic rad pit anyway. They just sit in the dark and rot in their own wood stove smoke all day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The absolute worst case scenario is a persistent Bering Sea vortex. Complete shutdown pattern. Even an AK vortex isn’t as bad and can be somewhat workable for you guys up there at your latitude…. can we start a winter panic 2024-2025 thread? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Even when we've had some below-average temperature airmasses (using 850 as a metric here), if we're getting Sun we are still finding a way to get very close to average (for daytime high). At some point you would have to think (or hope) we reach a tipping point. Could you imagine though even if we see another 3-5 years of warmth at the pace we're at? I've mentioned this several times over the years but one key metric for me is going to see how the globe responds once we flip the AMO to the negative phase. Even when the AMO does flip it will take several years to probably reflect on the global state but if we're deep into the negative AMO phase and still shattering warm records...then I think we're in big trouble. But we probably wouldn't even be deep into the negative AMO probably for another 30 years or so. I would imagine the AMO should start transitioning towards the end of this decade. It's crazy. I lived in VA and NC as a kid for awhile and our climate is basically like that one except for a few short bursts here and there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: can we start a winter panic 2024-2025 thread? probably shoulda started a 'winter panic 2020 - further notice' thread 7 some years years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: probably shoulda started a 'winter panic 2020 - further notice' thread 7 some years years ago yep been a pile of crap since the nino of 15/16 for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think what's interesting too is when we're dealing with negative departures, it's not necessarily a product of just the airmass itself. It is usually related to either extensive cloud cover and/or precip or an unfavorable wind direction (though this ties more to coastal areas and is time-of-year dependent). keeping in mind also ... clouds and precipitation can lead a user impression into a bias ( ha ) because they tend to be awake during the day. i mean, i'm assuming you are referring to empirically measured/scalar diurnals, but just for everyone else .. a wet day's average may in fact be higher and is attributed to nights staying above climo in wet patterns. it 'feels' like shit out there, but is in fact often warmer than normal at night by ( and here's the kicker! ) a greater amount than the day held cooler due to clouds and rain. the day may be -10, but the night was +10.5 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23 Share Posted October 23 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's crazy. I lived in VA and NC as a kid for awhile and our climate is basically like that one except for a few short bursts here and there... The northward shift is very real. Was talking about this with someone the other day but you look at accounts of how winter's were, even as far south as Washington DC several hundred years ago compared to now...it's insane. Sure there were accounts of some very warm winters there and such but the frequency now is much greater than it was back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now