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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Alarmed?  Now that’s comical.  Stay safe. 

Next up: California wildfires, New England style 

But hey maybe all that smoke will put a lid on temps. 

But side note: 70s & 80s with desert like humidity, sunny skies and a weak sun is awesome personally. I work in cold conditions so dry heat is very nice. 

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22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

12z GFS op is CC on roids. No rain at all and 80s into Minnesota to start November. 

If you're not alarmed then idk what to tell you

Ahhh… way to add substance to a discussion by just throwing gasoline on a fire.

I still don’t get the “alarmed” or “worried” aspect of the discussion.  It’s something that’s happening and science shouldn’t have emotions attached to it.

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

View of my hill this morning taken from Tolland Green which at 650’. Foliage very  dull with scattered bright red sugar maples here and there. That seems to be the only species vibrant this year .

QZu5y28.jpeg

Glad we don't live there. You do know that oak trees just turn brown right? 

 

20241020_135351.jpg

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17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Gorgeous picture.  What a day.  What an Autumn.  Just went and picked up some Ribeyes to grill later, Truck was reading 76. Just ideal.

Congrats. 77 MMK. Hopefully you get your 80...

 

Screenshot_20241020_144028_Chrome.jpg

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i don't you know what, no one credible would declare a particular modeled episode of anomalies a direct cc indicator  ... blah blah blah  that's below sophomoric

there are three expulsion events on the 12z operational gfs that carry outward from the western low/mid lat continent between 200 and 360 hours, with only returns to modest yet still an canvas in between.  this (blw) is the last in the series ... they look rather similar.

it's not worth much for predictive value at this range, no.  however, i do honestly see a repeating tendency in these longer ranges to do this.  the guidance cinemas, all of them really, are unbalanced.  these warm mass ejecta have very few compensatory cold mass fields around them.   that carries some import for me - the notion that this is simply not balanced, and the objective physical processing in the models "feel" that will be the case.  lol

image.png.0c72682b1190ace388fa97d8d55cbb74.png

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Just now, BrianW said:

BDL from a low 35 to 78..

 

month_10__year_2024__station_BDL__network_CT_ASOS__dpi_100.png

yeah these diurnals yesterday and now today are really the bigger story for me personally.    autumn has always been known in numerical record keeping ( april, too - when not being backdoor harassed) as the big diurnals month.   the air is dryer... that's it. that's the reason.   but usually that's 30, sometimes 35.  even rarer, 40 degree spreads.   we're 45 two days in a row.  i'm not sure if the diurnal change is a record that is actually kept but these deltas have balls.  

really is winter to summer in a matter of hours

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Next up: California wildfires, New England style 

But hey maybe all that smoke will put a lid on temps. 

But side note: 70s & 80s with desert like humidity, sunny skies and a weak sun is awesome personally. I work in cold conditions so dry heat is very nice. 

Slight difference in vegetation and ecosystems.  SoCal has millions of acres of plants that have long been regenerated by fire.  The Northeast, nasomuch, outside of places like the Pine Barrens of NJ and similar types on Long Island and Cape Cod.  Even the lands in Maine torched by fire in 1947 mostly regenerated to species less prone to major wildfires.

Temperatures are rising and heavy precip storms are increasing, but "110°" and "exponential" don't help the discussion.

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Expecting substantial warm air advection Monday with veering low level winds from near surface to 850mb. Vertical mixing during the day and noting how warm temperatures reached for Sunday, used the NBM 95th percentile for high temperatures Monday, ranging mainly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some record high temperatures could be reached or even exceeded in some locations.

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