Rocktober Obs/DISCO

[40/70 Benchmark]

After tomorrow we shed the Morch sun angle, then 3 more weeks until solar min.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

After tomorrow we shed the Morch sun angle, then 3 more weeks until solar min.

Solar min Nov 1? Sweet. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Solar min Nov 1? Sweet. 

Early November through like Feb 10..yes.

[dendrite]

43.6°

Still struggling to make it into 30s. It’ll be another late first freeze. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was 37 last night.

[512high]

43/light breeze

[dendrite]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was 37 last night.

Yeah…weak sauce.

[Lava Rock]

40.5F

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

10 weeks until days get longer. 

[CoastalWx]

46 lame degrees 

[dryslot]

36.0°F, Patchy frost this morning.

[Damage In Tolland]

No rain rest of month ? Maybe a shower Sunday night

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No rain rest of month ? Maybe a shower Sunday night

Octsteiner. Plenty of rain to come in winter so don’t fear.

[Modfan2]

Crazy day tornado wise in my old area in FL, 11 touchdowns in Martin County and 17 in St Lucie County alone; and these were not the usual low top spinners we normally see there will be a few EF2 and EF3 tornadoes

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Crazy day tornado wise in my old area in FL, 11 touchdowns in Martin County and 17 in St Lucie County alone; and these were not the usual low top spinners we normally see there will be a few EF2 and EF3 tornadoes

These were big boys too. I think that might be the most impressive part of Milton.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Octsteiner. Plenty of rain to come in winter so don’t fear.

Wonder if winter stays on the drier / low qpf side 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if winter stays on the drier / low qpf side 

Pattern looks more active down the road. Just leftover Stein now.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pattern looks more active down the road. Just leftover Stein now.

When does that start?

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When does that start?

Sunday. Could get decent rain as NAM shows. It's more dynamic anyways...,maybe not days of rain, but eventually we'll get some storms.

[bwt3650]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No rain rest of month ? Maybe a shower Sunday night

Do you happen to know the low temp on December 16th too?  

[bwt3650]

I remember living in central NH and 2-4k peaks were white by early-mid October :/

I remember back in 2024 when the peaks were white by early-mid October. Sucks now.




.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday. Could get decent rain as NAM shows. It's more dynamic anyways...,maybe not days of rain, but eventually we'll get some storms.

That all looks north of pike for anything good. Gfs and Euro have .25 or less south of pike 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

43.6°

Still struggling to make it into 30s. It’ll be another late first freeze. 

interesting signal in the late mid and extended range.  it's been on the guidance for a while ... but it's not exactly an exciting facet, either, so -

but the indian summer climatology is here, about 3 weeks earlier than the more typical time of year whence seasonal regression typically occurs, late oct through mid novie.  it's interesting - sort of - that here we are in the fervent popularity of climate concerns, yet we're moving transition events sooner?  

anyway, it may be more identifiable in the pattern structure, but today's cool shot cycles out, then there is bigger one early next week with only modest recovery in between.   the one early next week may in fact lay down an early snow from upstate ny, up the st l and eastern ontario.  as a consequence, we end up sub 540 dm hydrostats for 48 hours from the eastern gl, n ov, and ne regions.  should wind ssettle off, we don't just frost at night but we rim ponds with ice and brick the top soil if these gfs renditions play out with that.   the euro and ggem are on board, more than less...

after that, particularly in the gfs ensemble system and the operational ( though the euro is not far off ) have an impressive l/w rollout and we balm big time. 

by convention, the indian summer typically happens after the first seasonal suggestion ...  i'm just making conjecture here that not all indian summers are very identifiable - they come nuanced, with some subtly suggestive if not missed altogether, where other autumns have some more coherent.  this transition over the next week between two froster air masses, followed by some 4 or 5 days worth of 564+ dm hydrostat with dry wsw deep layer continental flow seems like a nuanced version of the indian summer.

the most illustrated i can ever recall was just recently in 2020, when an october 30 snow was followed by 70 to 80 f between nov 5 and 10th

[metagraphica]

2 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Crazy day tornado wise in my old area in FL, 11 touchdowns in Martin County and 17 in St Lucie County alone; and these were not the usual low top spinners we normally see there will be a few EF2 and EF3 tornadoes

 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

These were big boys too. I think that might be the most impressive part of Milton.

Big ones, throwing big shit around...

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

I remember back in 2024 when the peaks were white by early-mid October. Sucks now.




.

I was just thinking the same thing.  The good ol days are back I guess.  The guy jinxed himself. 

[powderfreak]

Better mid-level lift was down south of here.  We largely saw super cooled water droplets at 29F and decent icing.  Mansfield is all iced up with a trace of snow.

[kdxken]

Feels cold today. 50 with a strong wind. When does summer come back?

[ma blizzard]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Feels cold today. 50 with a strong wind. When does summer come back?

xmas eve

[LSC97wxnut]

I saw a different angle of that dumpster photo yesterday.

Have to think if the house isn't built to Florida hurricane codes, the dumpster ends up in the living room?

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

10 weeks until days get longer. 

And the cold gets stronger . . .

First 32 of the season, almost 3 weeks later than average.  More to come next week.  Today's wind will pull down some more leaves, but the big drop came Saturday-Monday.  We're at about 75% drop; ash is bare and white birch almost the same, maples and yellow birch at 30-90% drop, oaks dragging as usual, mostly still green.