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Rocktober Obs/DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

It was a nice start to October, though my golf game seems to have gone into hibernation early :(.

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Kind of a cool looking course. I bet those trees just off the fairway never come in to play huh?

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

+pna/-nao continues in both the production version/means, and the ensemble-based teleconnectors.

interesting that the pac is stuck in that +wpo/+epo while the above persists.  

anyway ... the gfs (operational) is trying to sell 'blue' thickness intrusion/oscillatory pattern ... beginning by the end of the week.  frost(s) would like take place on any interim night in that regime between ~ 9th and the 16th.    the tendency to over exemplify base patterns in that time range, notwithstanding.

Oct 11 redux?

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oct 11 redux?

the thought had crossed my mind    <_<

..but i really suspect that's a standing order every autumn during this particular era of cc - yeah ...it's related to that forcing so anyone that wants to roll their eyes can summarily go f themselves.  sick of dancing around other people's denial with diplomacy while the world races to the cliff -

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7 hours ago, weathafella said:

So here’s the question.   When I hear first frost I’m thinking frost otg or needing to be scraped off the car.  2M temps are often above freezing since ground temperatures can be colder.  So what do you mean by first frost?  First freeze for BOS averaged 11/7 in the dataset 1961-90.  I’m not sure it’s substantially different now actually.

For my records, first/last frosts are minima 32 or lower.  Freeze is 28 or lower.  Frost (more likely frozen dew) on car roofs with the max/min bottoming out at 34 doesn't count.
 

Enjoy that extra month of growing season if you're in northern New England I guess.

Good for fattening the carrots but the warm-wx crops (tomatoes and cukes here) look exhausted and are not producing much if any.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the thought had crossed my mind    <_<

..but i really suspect that's a standing order every autumn during this particular era of cc - yeah ...it's related to that forcing so anyone that wants to roll their eyes can summarily go f themselves.  sick of dancing around other people's denial with diplomacy while the world races to the cliff -

I think most of us are just breaking your acorns when we mock you about that. ..pretty tough to deny at this stage.

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Kind of a cool looking course. I bet those trees just off the fairway never come in to play huh?

They've actually removed a lot of trees over the last several years.  They have some marked for cutting this year too. It's a fun course.  It's not overly long but the conditions are always good and it is challenging.  We hosted the State Amateur Championship last year and the Mid-Am this year.  Country Club of Barre

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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think most of us are just breaking your acorns when we mock you about that. ..pretty tough to deny at this stage.

it's a'ight    ... it's just been a long while since anyone's given ww's chode hairs a tug so felt morally obligated -

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3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Oh yea. 2011. The year of big weather events. 

Too far north for most of them, though we did get 15" on April 1.  The 12-16 forecast for the Octobomb verified at 4.5".  On the bright side, we lost power for only a few hours; 12-16 would've meant days.

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8 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So, just a question. You have always been one to hope for warmth during the Winter months. Why come in here and constantly push for warmth/No Snow when you know you are on the  " Winter Thread "? It doesn't make sense to me..... Not that I'm unnerved by you, just baffled? 

Well this is coctober thread first off. Secondly, I don't "constantly push for warmth in winter threads" but discuss whatever is going on, which lately has been mild.

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2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Well this is coctober thread first off. Secondly, I don't "constantly push for warmth in winter threads" but discuss whatever is going on, which lately has been mild.

tough to argue

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13 minutes ago, kdxken said:

It's coming. 

Yeah that trough middle of next week looks fairly legit.  GFS is coldest at 850mb temps… but GGEM and ECMWF also get slightly negative 850s and rotate them around for a few days late next week.

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that trough middle of next week looks fairly legit.  GFS is coldest at 850mb temps… but GGEM and ECMWF also get slightly negative 850s and rotate them around for a few days late next week.

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Should help move some product at the very least. The boss has been on me.

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26 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that trough middle of next week looks fairly legit.  GFS is coldest at 850mb temps… but GGEM and ECMWF also get slightly negative 850s and rotate them around for a few days late next week.

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Man I know I probably sound like a broken record at this point but that modeled setup always reminds of our typical early spring climate while much of the rest of the country is baking and yet we’ll have that little zone of suckage parked right over us. It’s absolutely ridiculous and even a toddler could practically predict its inevitable arrival to the very day.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As warm as Canada and west is. Theres no cold anywhere. Best to temper the good frosty. Early snow calls next week . That will likely all modify . The continent is torched with that look 

Cool shot coming but no flakes and then more AN.  

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As warm as Canada and west is. Theres no cold anywhere. Best to temper the good frosty. Early snow calls next week . That will likely all modify . The continent is torched with that look 

So, the usual new climate normal.  Modification and AN in the means despite transient troughs.  Hard to argue/bet against that.  But one can hope.

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Foliage has been progressing fast towards peak in Smugglers Notch and on Mansfield.

The mid-slope hardwoods are a mix of green and reds.  The first wave of trees are peaking between 1,500-3,000ft.  The second wave will be when those green trees decide to flash.

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4 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Absolutely the most bonkers real-time lightning video ever. Would proudly shit my pants for the experience.

This is like condensing the last 20 years of observed lightning into 1 square mile over 2.5 minutes. 

 

Now THAT’S good stuff. Wow. 

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9 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Absolutely the most bonkers real-time lightning video ever. Would proudly shit my pants for the experience.

This is like condensing the last 20 years of observed lightning into 1 square mile over 2.5 minutes. 

 

People don’t realize how crazy storms can be from Greece to Italy.

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