40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 CFS seems to offer up some blocking working in conjunction with a PNA pattern, so perhaps some early cool shots in the offing. Obviously this doesn't really mean much in terms of winter and if anything, it could be a subtle negative since there is a modest negative correlation with this month and the cold season. All of that said, October is the first month that usually does offer some viable indicators that have some winter utility. The MJO is one factor I will be keeping close tabs this month, as @bluewavehas made some pretty astute obs concerning the connection between amplified maritime forcing (phases 4-6) during the month of October and deviation or disconnect from this hostile paradigm during the ensuing cold season (2020-2021, 2021-2022). The recent seasons that had a lower amplitude during this month ended up having a higher amplitude during the winter, which obviously kept the east milder with a greater dearth of a more wintry interlude. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 October 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 October 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 Look at the disparity between the relatively high amplitude those years and 2022, which went into the shitter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 Here is 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 30 Author Share Posted September 30 Current guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 Coctober, lets go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Current guidance: MJO just doesnt want to take a run through 8-1-2 these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I always knew you liked weenies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 51.7° More lows in the 50s. You would almost think it’s normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Some cold shots appearing on modeling Still just ghosts at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 28 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Some cold shots appearing on modeling Still just ghosts at this point. Yeah 6z shows this especially. Some validity to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 1 hour ago, dendrite said: 51.7° More lows in the 50s. You would almost think it’s normal. Still waiting for 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Noll says not so fast on your rush to winter cold in Octorch https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1841056799186960831?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 My mom texted this earlier…Happy Rocktober. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Sucks it’s October. 5 months until Morch. 2 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Noll says not so fast on your rush to winter cold in Octorch https://x.com/bennollweather/status/1841056799186960831?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Winter in October? But that looks great for COC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sucks it’s October. 5 months until Morch. You must be a joy to live with. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sucks it’s October. 5 months until Morch. See ya then, enjoy the board break. All signs point to a early winter. Dec will rock. LFG 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Just now, kdxken said: You must be a joy to live with. It's an EMASS thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Current guidance: Won’t lie, anytime I see these charts it looks like someone playing Tempest! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 14 minutes ago, kdxken said: You must be a joy to live with. Yeah months of 40F and rain are certainly fun. Hopefully you can still cut trees without sinking in mud. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Winter in October? But that looks great for COC Summeh in March and winter in Coctober, apparently… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah months of 40F and rain are certainly fun. Hopefully you can still cut trees without sinking in mud. So it's all downhill from here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Sucks it’s October. 5 months until Morch. mixed feelings ... if winter results in just about anything other that what the average of the last 8 years have been, i'll be interested ( though uneasy ) in seeing what that has to offer if winter results in the same as the average of these last 8 years, i dream of enough disposable financial liquidity to flee somewhere else and start a new life 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Some cold shots appearing on modeling Still just ghosts at this point. models would tend to sniff out the pattern base, and then the error and biases will be too much of whatever the base is ... ex, if the "real" pattern basis is in a -pna ... the extended ranges will occasionally balloon heights too much. if the pattern base is +pna ... we get these -3 standard deviation trough plumbing to indianapolis which aren't necessary ... yet very likely looking to winter enthusiasts ( of course ) having said that, yeeeah the last several years ( decadal and papered, too - ) have shown a propensity for transition season blocking - both ends. october being one of those months...etc. it's become almost reliable.. a persistence that sort of automatically lends confidence to it being annoyingly chilly too early in the year. yay! it's a new paradigm. yeah yeah yeah, probably another in the compendium of other cc hammer to head aspects that people keep gaslighting themselves into believing are just the tickle shoulder taps of variability. but it is what it is... and, it's part and parcel to why we've been observing snow or snow supporting synoptics along approximately half the octobers since 2000, when the prior climate generation(s) never did ( usually). only to then fade seamlessly into a wind enraged mid tropospheric shear shitty winter ass blow pattern. it's really just becoming unbearable ... much to the chagrin of all these wide-eyed enthusiastic seasonal forecasts for up our down in temp or snow or rain or whatever... all these winters have straight line torpedoed right through those convincing walls of reasons, to the same justification for setting up an escape plan to somewhere in the southern hemisphere. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 So far first day of Torchtober is mank and not torching. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 40's? Lol, Just about every night in Sept and last night been in the 40's for lows, Only one in the 30's though so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: 40's? Lol, Just about every night in Sept and last night been in the 40's for lows, Only one in the 30's though so far. Torch! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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