lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: looking better and better easily a cat 5 now How will we ever know with no recon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 135 kt. at least but probably higher, wouldn't doubt cat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Putting on a show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 That's a sexy storm. Thank God its just with the fishes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 19 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: looking better and better easily a cat 5 now I’d say right in the cusp. Large storm and cdo isn’t a full doughnut which is what dvark estimate looks for, symmetry. Probably, my best guess 150mph right now. Cat 4 max. OHC out that far is that high so we are likely whitnessing a full potential storm x Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 4 Author Share Posted October 4 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to prosper. The earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep convection. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 125 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion should continue through Friday as Kirk continues to move along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure ridge over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge and as a shortwave trough approaches the system. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and early next week. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Kirk could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or so, but increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin shortly after that. Kirk will likely complete extratropical transition when it moves over cool waters sometime between day 4 and day 5, but it is expected to remain a powerful system throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Even though Kirk is expected to stay over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will cause large ocean swells to propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 21.5N 47.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Of course they're only going to go to 155mph lol. Would be pretty wild to see two category 5's this year. Beryl being the earliest that far east and Kirk being the strongest this far east this late in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 03 2024 Kirk continues to prosper. The earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have completed, and Kirk is back on a strengthening trend. Satellite images indicate that Kirk has a circular and clear 15 n mi eye surrounded by a solid ring of intense deep convection. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 115 to 135 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is increased to 125 kt. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 9 kt, and this general motion should continue through Friday as Kirk continues to move along the southwestern periphery of a high pressure ridge over the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic. A turn to the north is expected on Saturday when Kirk reaches the western periphery of the ridge and as a shortwave trough approaches the system. This trough and a reinforcing one should cause the hurricane to accelerate northeastward on Sunday and early next week. The models are in fairly good agreement on this overall scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged westward to be in better agreement with the latest model runs. Kirk could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or so, but increasing vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry air should cause a steady weakening trend to begin shortly after that. Kirk will likely complete extratropical transition when it moves over cool waters sometime between day 4 and day 5, but it is expected to remain a powerful system throughout the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Even though Kirk is expected to stay over the open Atlantic, its strong intensity and increasing size will cause large ocean swells to propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands beginning Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 21.5N 47.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 26.8N 50.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 30.0N 49.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 33.6N 48.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 37.3N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 43.5N 33.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 47.0N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi Nice opening line, lol. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4 Share Posted October 4 Kirk is clearing out its eye again. Beautiful presentation. If it were near the east coast it would fill the map. Definitely one of the best eastern Atlantic storms on record, owing to record OHC. Pure ace producer, and surfers delight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 Though Kirk will be long extratropical by the time it reaches Europe, it’s cool how the last forecast point is just southwest of London, UK. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted October 5 Share Posted October 5 15 hours ago, gallopinggertie said: Though Kirk will be long extratropical by the time it reaches Europe, it’s cool how the last forecast point is just southwest of London, UK. Now skirts the coast from France to Denmark: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 6 Share Posted October 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted October 7 Share Posted October 7 It's gone extratropical with a warm asymetric core. I find it fascinating that Europe is getting this storm. It's a rare season that sees anything hit there. Here's the cyclone phase from GFS showing the core structure (source: https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 4 hours ago, Random Chaos said: It's gone extratropical with a warm asymetric core. I find it fascinating that Europe is getting this storm. It's a rare season that sees anything hit there. Here's the cyclone phase from GFS showing the core structure (source: https://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ ) Looks like some decent gusts too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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