Volcanic Winter Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 42 for a low this AM, coldest of the fall for me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Latest Drought Monitor showing the dryness and drought gradually expanding over the Northeast. Check out West Virginia. Going to take some good rains to turn that around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And will continue for weeks. Severe drought starting to creep in It's different now vs summer. A drought now ain't so bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's different now vs summer. A drought now ain't so bad. Until someone lights a match in the pine barrens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's different now vs summer. A drought now ain't so bad. Most experts called for heavy rains along the east coast into the northeast from a active Atlantic tropical season ended up being a active Gulf of Mexico season which has been the case since 2017. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: Frost advisory Had a low temp of 44 here this morning. Despite the advisory I'm not too worried about frost here tonight, since it's only supposed to get down to the upper 30s. Vegetable plants in the garden should be ok here, but I'd be a little more concerned if I was in northwest NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's different now vs summer. A drought now ain't so bad. Yeah obviously it would be much worse in the summer, but it's still annoying for those of us that have gardens. Lots of watering needed as we move through the late part of the growing season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah obviously it would be much worse in the summer, but it's still annoying for those of us that have gardens. Lots of watering needed as we move through the late part of the growing season. Don’t forget the reseeding from all the damage to the lawns from the summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Just now, Allsnow said: Don’t forget the reseeding from all the damage to the lawns from the summer. Yeah definitely. Even though it would be worse if it happened in the summer, a drought now it still bad for a few different reasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Until someone lights a match in the pine barrens Getting worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 i tried to tie up a few plants and the ground is so dry the bamboo stakes kept snapping 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 @bluewave where is the pac jet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave where is the pac jet? We recently had 6 sigma jet max out near the Aleutians but that wasn’t in a great spot for CONUS rainfall outside the hurricane landfalls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Wonder if the CONT US is in for a dry winter.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 This transition from summer to fall has so far been about as normal as it gets, as far as temperatures go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Overnighting at IBSP tonight to fish and hopefully catch the Aurora. Going to be a cold one. Hopefully I brought enough cold snacks and firewood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 With a low temperature of 49°, New York City saw its first temperature below 50° since May 13th this morning. Tomorrow morning will again see the temperature fall into the 40s. Saturday will turn briefly milder before cooler air returns Sunday or Monday. Another particularly strong cold shot is likely near mid-month before a potential warming trend develops. In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued continued to fade. The heat will dissipate by the weekend. Phoenix recorded its 17th consecutive record-tying or record-breaking high temperature. Tucson reached 100° for the 109th time this year, breaking the record of 108 days that was set in 2020. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +7.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.926 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 11 hours ago, bluewave said: Big temperature swing coming up. First frost in the forecast for some spots. Then we make a run on 80° over the weekend. I know Saturday is mid 70s but im going to Rutgers football game Do we have a shot at Sunday being a beach day similar to last Saturday which was 73-74 at the shore. As long as its not an east win thats good enough for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 The northern lights are spectacular already! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Outside my front door.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Wow, I can see it! Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Pretty impressive. Can even see without a phone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAVistaNY Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Northern light visible now! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Aurora is visible right now from Smithtown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAVistaNY Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Northern light visible now! Westchester 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 I never thought I’d see the aurora in queens. Wow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: I never thought I’d see the aurora in queens. Wow. Aurora in Queens sounds like the title of a movie that gets an Oscar nomination. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Can barely see a tinge in lynbrook. I’ll be in Pa near the ny state border tomorrow night. Will try again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 11 Share Posted October 11 Yeah we only saw a tinge. Can’t get to a good horizon view or low light pollution in time. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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