October 2024

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks like another warm day with a few fall like days midweek. No rain for us through day 14 although eastern areas may do better

This week definitely isn't looking as cool as it did a few days ago as far as high temps. Now Thursday looks like the only really cool day with below average high temps in the mid 60s. Every other day our area will be up around 70, and then we go back to temps well up into the 70s on Saturday. 

[bluewave]

Very dry pattern continuing for the CONUS away from the track of Milton. 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

This week definitely isn't looking as cool as it did a few days ago as far as high temps. Now Thursday looks like the only really cool day with below average high temps in the mid 60s. Every other day our area will be up around 70, and then we go back to temps well up into the 70s on Saturday. 

Probably due to the mostly sunny conditions and dry weather. Should see highs overperform and nights to be cooler than forecast. 

[MANDA]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very dry pattern continuing for the CONUS away from the track of Milton. 

 

 

Hopefully we are getting this dry pattern out of the way now and pattern can shift to something more active for the cold months.  Pattern will flip at some point but to what and for whom is the question.

In the meantime that is a dry looking map, especially for this time of year.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Hopefully we are getting this dry pattern out of the way now and pattern can shift to something more active for the cold months.  Pattern will flip at some point but to what and for whom is the question.

In the meantime that is a dry looking map, especially for this time of year.

Tough to get much rainfall away from the tropical systems with so much record ridging and warmth over North America since late August.

 

 

 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tough to get much rainfall away from the tropical systems with so much record ridging and warmth over North America since late August.

 

 

 

Absolutely agree.  At some point pattern should adjust, has been SO persistent.  Hopefully to something more favorable for more precipitation and MAYBE to something resembling a colder than normal November and/or December.

[winterwx21]

29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably due to the mostly sunny conditions and dry weather. Should see highs overperform and nights to be cooler than forecast. 

Yeah still going to be a beautiful week with the very low dewpoints and cool nights. 

[bluewave]

52 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Absolutely agree.  At some point pattern should adjust, has been SO persistent.  Hopefully to something more favorable for more precipitation and MAYBE to something resembling a colder than normal November and/or December.

Just a really extreme pattern with Helene and Milton going under these near to record 500mb ridges. Even the jet stream will be much stronger than normal this week for any flights headed east. The GFS has a near record October 185KT jet streak this week east of Cape Cod.

More like a strong Jan jet streak but in October

 

 

[EWR757]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just a really extreme pattern with Helene and Milton going under these near to record 500mb ridges. Even the jet stream will be much stronger than normal this week for any flights headed east. The GFS has a near record October 185KT jet streak this week east of Cape Cod.

More like a strong Jan jet streak but in October

 

 

While the ridge has been impressive with the Jetstream westerlies on the north side there has been a persistent easterly flow in the Atlantic south of Iceland and Greenland, so it's been possible for trans-Atlantic air traffic to have tailwind in both directions the last couple weeks.  

[JustinRP37]

I was just mentioning to my wife that we haven't even used the space heaters yet in the house. This is the latest we have gone now without at least a few mornings or evenings with the space heaters. In fact we are still regularly using the AC to dehumidify. I do open the windows too, but the house is averaging in the mid 70s when all sealed up. Basement still hanging in there at 72. Leaves have barely begun to change when normally we are approaching peak. We will see how long we can keep this west coast climate up this fall. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

I was just mentioning to my wife that we haven't even used the space heaters yet in the house. This is the latest we have gone now without at least a few mornings or evenings with the space heaters. In fact we are still regularly using the AC to dehumidify. I do open the windows too, but the house is averaging in the mid 70s when all sealed up. Basement still hanging in there at 72. Leaves have barely begun to change when normally we are approaching peak. We will see how long we can keep this west coast climate up this fall. 

Mostly green here too.  Today's rain was nice to settle the dust lol

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

This week definitely isn't looking as cool as it did a few days ago as far as high temps. Now Thursday looks like the only really cool day with below average high temps in the mid 60s. Every other day our area will be up around 70, and then we go back to temps well up into the 70s on Saturday. 

Yep I'm sure the dry weather will keep temps warmer than forecast

[SACRUS]

 

77 / 54 partly cloudy.  Aside from some showers in LI its been a dry front.   Cooler 10/8 - 10/11. warmer 10/12 - 10/15 then cooler again.  Overall drier is in place.

 

[MANDA]

Some nice leaf color here.  Especially the maples.  Not super widespread color yet but not bad and nothing like some of the years in the recent past where just yellow & brown and down.   Maples on my street and in my yard are brilliant red and orange.

[winterwx21]

45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep I'm sure the dry weather will keep temps warmer than forecast

Yeah not surprising to see it overperforming today, and that will continue. It's 76 degrees here right now. 

[MJO812]

911 mb
175 mph winds

Wow

[Allsnow]

Dry 

[SACRUS]

 

Man this is aimed right at Tampa/St Pete area. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Dry front

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EWR757 said:

While the ridge has been impressive with the Jetstream westerlies on the north side there has been a persistent easterly flow in the Atlantic south of Iceland and Greenland, so it's been possible for trans-Atlantic air traffic to have tailwind in both directions the last couple weeks.  

CNJ had that great snowband last February with the record jet max.

 

 

[psv88]

Had a quick downpour this morning driving to the office. 75 now. 

[jm1220]

Maybe 0.1” this AM. 

[Stormlover74]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe 0.1” this AM. 

Lucky

[Stormlover74]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

911 mb
175 mph winds

Wow

905/180 now

[Allsnow]

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1949)
NYC: 88 (1944)
LGA: 85 (1944)
JFK: 83 (2007)


Lows:

EWR: 38 (1958)
NYC: 39 (1999)
LGA: 40 (1954)
JFK: 39 (1984)

Historical:

 

1970 - Widespread flooding took place across Puerto Rico. Rainfall amounts for the day ranged up to seventeen inches at Aibonito. A slow moving tropical depression was responsible for six days of torrential rains across the island. Totals in the Eastern Interior Division averaged thirty inches, with 38.4 inches at Jayuya. Flooding claimed eighteen lives, and resulted in 62 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1959: The Soviet spacecraft, Luna 3, captured the first images of the far side of the Moon. The first image was taken at 3:30 UTC on the 7th of October. 

1981 - Seattle, WA, received four inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was another hot day in the southwestern U.S. Tucson, AZ, hit 101 degrees for the second day in a row to again equal their record for the month of October. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 103 degrees, and Blythe CA and Yuma AZ tied for honors as the hot spot in the nation with afternoon highs of 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Morning fog in the central U.S. reduced the visibility to near zero at some locations. Morning lows of 28 degrees at Rockford IL and 24 degrees at Waterloo IA were records for the date. Afternoon highs of 92 degrees at Hollywood FL and Miami FL were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Morning thunderstorms in central Texas drenched San Antonio with 3.10 inches of rain in six hours causing local flooding in northeastern sections of the city. Temperatures dipped below the freezing mark from the Northern Rockies to the Upper Mississippi Valley. (The National Weather Summary)

2016: Hurricane Matthew was off the northeast coast of Florida. Matthew brought intense rainfall to the Carolinas on the 8th and 9th.

 

2018: Only 8 hours after becoming a depression, the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Michael. Tropical storm force winds and torrential downpours were affecting portions of the coastal east-central Yucatan Peninsula.

 

 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe 0.1” this AM. 

Had 0.000000101" this morning in Linden, NJ

[Dan76]

Did TT crash?

[Stormlover74]

20 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Did TT crash?

Working now

[donsutherland1]

The region will see its coolest air so far this season this week. Tomorrow will be cooler and then a reinforcing shot of even chillier air will arrive on Wednesday. New York City could see its first temperature below 50° since May 13th on Thursday or Friday.

On Wednesday evening, Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast. The storm, which grew into an extreme Category 5 hurricane with an 897 mb central pressure and maximum sustained winds of 180 mph, will likely make landfall as a Category 3 and perhaps Category 4 hurricane. It will bring a devastating storm surge inland. There remains a risk that the heavily populated Tampa ara could face some of the hurricane's worst impacts. The later guidance will lead to a more precise picture.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. Phoenix registered its fourth 110° high temperature this month. San Jose experienced its longest stretch of 95° or above temperatures on record. Death Valley, Palm Springs, and Phoenix all exceeded the national record for average high temperature during the 14-day September 24-October 7 period. The extreme heat will fade over the next few days.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the dirsuptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +15.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.445 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal).