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33 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's been a wet year but here's where we are at currently.

 

 

Screenshot_20241006_145149_Chrome.jpg

Yeah, over 50.00” on the year in spots like Port Jefferson Station in Suffolk with only .24 since August 20th.

 

Data for January 1, 2024 through October 6, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 55.66
CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 55.48
CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 55.10
CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 54.89
NY ST. JAMES COOP 54.53
CT SOUTHBURY 2.3 W CoCoRaHS 54.45
CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 53.97
CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 53.71
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 53.58
CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 53.49
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 52.85
NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 52.42
CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 52.22
CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 52.07
CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 51.97
CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 50.86
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 50.82
CT BETHEL 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 50.71
NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 50.28


Data for August 20, 2024 through October 6, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending

NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.24
CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 0.24
NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.2 NE CoCoRaHS 0.26
NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.26
NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.26
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.26
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.30
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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with perhaps some morning showers or even a thundershower as a strong cold front crosses the region. Following the frontal passage, the region will see its coolest air so far this season. New York City could see its first temperature below 50° since May 13th after midweek.

During the middle of the week, Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast. The storm will likely make landfall as a Category 3 and perhaps Category 4 hurricane. It will bring a devastating storm surge inland. There remains a risk that Tampa could face some of the hurricane's worst impacts even as the guidance has shifted somewhat southward. The later guidance will lead to a more precise picture.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. Phoenix reached 113°, which smashed the daily record by 8° and tied the monthly record set on October 1st. Since September 25th, Phoenix has had 6 days with highs of 113° or above. In its full-year climate record that goes back to 1896, 98 years (76% of the record) had fewer than 6 such days. The most recent such year was 2014 (3 days). The region has never seen a late-season heatwave like the current one. The extreme heat will fade toward midweek.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +10.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.970 today.

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42 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Hopefully shear cuts those winds by landfall, but the surge may not be affected by any weakening.

Wont matter much for surge but even a 100MPH windfield into Tampa is going to be terrible.   Some good discussion over on the tropical forum here.

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