October 2024

[bluewave]

12 record highs from late October into November since 2016 at spots like Newark with the potential for more next few weeks.

https://threadex.rcc-acis.org

 

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-10-29DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

10/18	85 in 2016	80 in 1964	79 in 2007+
10/19	87 in 2016	82 in 1945	81 in 1963
10/20	80 in 2021	80 in 1969	80 in 1947
10/21	84 in 2024	84 in 1947	81 in 2017
10/22	86 in 1979	83 in 2024	79 in 1984+
10/23	87 in 1947	82 in 2024	82 in 1978
10/24	83 in 2001	78 in 1946	77 in 2017+
10/25	79 in 2001	79 in 1963	78 in 2021
10/26	82 in 2023	79 in 1964	79 in 1963
10/27	81 in 1963	80 in 1947	78 in 2023+
10/28	84 in 2023	82 in 1984	78 in 1989+
10/29	78 in 1971	78 in 1946	76 in 1989
10/30	82 in 1946	80 in 1961	80 in 1950
10/31	82 in 1946	79 in 1950	77 in 1945
11/1	85 in 1950	81 in 1974	78 in 1982
11/2	84 in 1950	80 in 1982	78 in 1990+
11/3	81 in 2003	79 in 1990	76 in 2017+
11/4	79 in 1994	78 in 1987	77 in 1982+
11/5	79 in 2022	77 in 1959	76 in 1994
11/6	80 in 1948	77 in 2022	77 in 1959
11/7	81 in 2022	78 in 1938	77 in 2020
11/8	77 in 2020	76 in 1975	75 in 1945
11/9	77 in 2020	75 in 1975	74 in 2021
11/10	76 in 2020	73 in 1999	73 in 1985+
11/11	75 in 1949	73 in 2020	71 in 2022
11/12	74 in 2022	74 in 1938	71 in 1982

[SACRUS]

 

80 here 4th of the month

[gravitylover]

75° and .01 overnight 

[Allsnow]

Models back to being dry until further notice 

[the_other_guy]

Man, this winter is so fucked. You could just feel it in your gut.

 

What we did to this climate…

 

Another close to 80 day next week too

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Models back to being dry until further notice 

The ridge keeps beating model forecasts.

New run

 

 

Old run

 

 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge keeps beating model forecasts.

New run

 

 

Old run

 

 

Thankfully its dry. One notable absence this warm october is rain or humidity. Good

[winterwx21]

80 degrees here right now, as we start this ridiculous 3 day torch. 

[snowman19]

Models back to being dry until further notice 

You ain’t kidding. November is starting to look like a dry as a bone torch-a-rama @Bluewave

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Man, this winter is so fucked. You could just feel it in your gut.

 

What we did to this climate…

 

Another close to 80 day next week too

Dramatic much.  Enjoy the nice weather, it's good for you

[Brian5671]

Getting an 01-02/ 11-12 vibe but even drier and warmer

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Dramatic much.  Enjoy the nice weather, it's good for you

Too bad Polar Cub is closed for the season now. It would've been nice to stop for ice cream on my way to bow hunting in Readington with all this 80 degree weather late october and early november. 

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Dramatic much.  Enjoy the nice weather, it's good for you

Yeh yeh. Gonna be a cold DJF. Starts like this.

Where is that first freeze bud? Nowhere in next 2 weeks that’s for sure. Several warm records though

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be an exceptionally warm day. Temperatures could challenge records in parts of the region with the mercury topping out well into the 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots, including Hartford, Newark and Philadelphia, will likely reach or exceed 80°.

Through 5 pm EDT today, New York City has seen just 0.01" of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 30 was 0.14" in 1963. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been a trace. The prior record was 0.09", which was set in 1924 and tied in 1963. Today is Philadelphia's 31st consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

Looking beyond October, November is likely to be warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Already, the sensitivity study is suggesting a 69% probability of a warmer than normal November and a 54% probability of a 50° or above mean temperature in New York City. Those are exceptionally high probabilities at a timeframe where model error is high.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -3.93 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.246 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.7° (2.8° above normal).

 

[lee59]

74 high today

[Poker2015]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Yeh yeh. Gonna be a cold DJF. Starts like this.

Where is that first freeze bud? Nowhere in next 2 weeks that’s for sure. Several warm records though

We have had multiple freezes here already.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Thankfully its dry. One notable absence this warm october is rain or humidity. Good

Record low dew points for this time of year.

 

 

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Getting an 01-02/ 11-12 vibe but even drier and warmer

Too early yet

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

We have had multiple freezes here already.

It’s the first time your area had so many October freezes while still running +5.5 on the maximum temperatures due to the very dry conditions and so much high pressure and light winds. 

SMQ

Oct 24….max…+5.5….min…..-2.5……8 days dropping to 32 or lower.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

TEB: 81
BLM: 80 
New Brnswck: 80
EWR: 79
LGA: 78
TTN: 77
PHL: 76
NYC: 76
JFK: 73
ISP: 70
ACY: 68

 

[psv88]

77 today. 

[bluewave]

Even areas north of LIE on LI could see 80° before the sea breeze arrives later today.

[Allsnow]

Crazy 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 57 partly sunny,  near / low 80s today and tomorrow ahead the front.  A bit cooler / near normal this weekend but dry.  Ridge rebuilds Mon - Wed , more upper 70s / low 80s Tue / Wed next week.   Trough with front now comes through later next week with cooldown Nov 9 - 11.  Dry continues.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1946)
NYC: 81 (1946)
LGA: 81 (1946)
JFK: 74 (2004)


Lows:

EWR:  29 (1975)
NYC: 29 (1925)
LGA: 33 (1975)
JFK: 30 (1966)

 

Historical:

 

1846 - Eighty-seven pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that piled five feet deep, with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Just 47 persons survived the "Donner Pass Tragedy". (The Weather Channel)

1950 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. for Halloween. The temperature soared to 83 degrees at Minneapolis MN, their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - Fort Lauderdale, FL, was deluged with 13.81 inches of rain, which brought their rainfall total for the month of October to an all-time record of 42.43 inches. (30th-31st) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Halloween was a wet one in the southwestern U.S. Heavy rain in southern California resulted in numerous mudslides. Weather-related auto accidents resulted in three deaths and twenty-five injuries. Mount Wilson CA received 3.14 inches of rain in 24 hours. Yakima WA reported measurable rainfall for the first time since the 18th of July. The 103 day long dry spell was their longest of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-two cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 19 degrees at Cleveland OH was a record for October, and morning lows of 21 degrees at Allentown PA and Bridgeport CT tied October records. Nine cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Phoenix AZ with a reading of 96 degrees. Showers made Halloween a soggy one in the southeastern U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Halloween night was a soggy one in New England. Showers in the northeastern U.S. produced more than an inch and a half of rain in six hours at some locations. An invasion of cold arctic air brought an abrupt end to a week of "Indian Summer" type weather in the Great Lakes Region, and brought snow and subzero wind chill readings to the Northern Plains. In Colorado, Alamosa was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of two degrees above zero, and a Halloween night storm brought 3 to 6 inches of snow to the Front Range, and 5 to 10 inches to the nearby foothills. Icy streets around Denver the next morning made for a rather spooky commute. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991: A severe winter storm, dubbed the Great Halloween Mega Storm, struck the upper Midwest. Minnesota bore the brunt of this storm. Blizzard conditions occurred with winds gusting frequently to 40 and 50 mph. By the time it was all over on November 2nd, Duluth recorded 37 inches, Minneapolis 28 inches, International Falls 18 inches and 11.2 inches in 24-hours at Sioux Falls, SD, their earliest heavy snowfall of 6 inches or more and snowiest October on record. For Duluth and Minneapolis, the snow amounts set new all-time records for the greatest amount of snow in a single storm. The storm gave these two cities nearly half of their average seasonal snowfall.

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1946)
NYC: 81 (1946)
LGA: 81 (1946)
JFK: 74 (2004)


Lows:

EWR:  29 (1975)
NYC: 29 (1925)
LGA: 33 (1975)
JFK: 30 (1966)

 

Historical:

 

1846 - Eighty-seven pioneers were trapped by early snows in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that piled five feet deep, with 30 to 40 foot drifts. Just 47 persons survived the "Donner Pass Tragedy". (The Weather Channel)

1950 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the central U.S. for Halloween. The temperature soared to 83 degrees at Minneapolis MN, their warmest reading of record for so late in the season. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - Fort Lauderdale, FL, was deluged with 13.81 inches of rain, which brought their rainfall total for the month of October to an all-time record of 42.43 inches. (30th-31st) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Halloween was a wet one in the southwestern U.S. Heavy rain in southern California resulted in numerous mudslides. Weather-related auto accidents resulted in three deaths and twenty-five injuries. Mount Wilson CA received 3.14 inches of rain in 24 hours. Yakima WA reported measurable rainfall for the first time since the 18th of July. The 103 day long dry spell was their longest of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty-two cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. The low of 19 degrees at Cleveland OH was a record for October, and morning lows of 21 degrees at Allentown PA and Bridgeport CT tied October records. Nine cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Phoenix AZ with a reading of 96 degrees. Showers made Halloween a soggy one in the southeastern U.S. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Halloween night was a soggy one in New England. Showers in the northeastern U.S. produced more than an inch and a half of rain in six hours at some locations. An invasion of cold arctic air brought an abrupt end to a week of "Indian Summer" type weather in the Great Lakes Region, and brought snow and subzero wind chill readings to the Northern Plains. In Colorado, Alamosa was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of two degrees above zero, and a Halloween night storm brought 3 to 6 inches of snow to the Front Range, and 5 to 10 inches to the nearby foothills. Icy streets around Denver the next morning made for a rather spooky commute. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991: A severe winter storm, dubbed the Great Halloween Mega Storm, struck the upper Midwest. Minnesota bore the brunt of this storm. Blizzard conditions occurred with winds gusting frequently to 40 and 50 mph. By the time it was all over on November 2nd, Duluth recorded 37 inches, Minneapolis 28 inches, International Falls 18 inches and 11.2 inches in 24-hours at Sioux Falls, SD, their earliest heavy snowfall of 6 inches or more and snowiest October on record. For Duluth and Minneapolis, the snow amounts set new all-time records for the greatest amount of snow in a single storm. The storm gave these two cities nearly half of their average seasonal snowfall.

It's crazy that the mega blizzard and perfect storm were occurring at the same time

[TJW014]

Updated drought map (as of 10/29)

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy 

 

 

We did it! New record low for CONUS area without D0 or worse on the drought monitor. Just 12.84% were not in D0 or worse in today's update, eclipsing the 14.72% for the week ending November 1, 2022. The 2022 drought was somewhat worse in severity, however.

[TheClimateChanger]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

We did it! New record low for CONUS area without D0 or worse on the drought monitor. Just 12.84% were not in D0 or worse in today's update, eclipsing the 14.72% for the week ending November 1, 2022. The 2022 drought was somewhat worse in severity, however.

Looks like this will be the high-water mark, or low water mark, if you will, as substantial rainfall is ongoing and expected to continue across much of the center of the CONUS.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy 

 

 

The coast to coast blocking ridge shut the rainfall off for a large portion of the U.S.