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28 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah I got enough drizzle to wet the ground but there was nothing more than 30 or 40 feet further down the hill or 3 blocks south. The WU station at the town highway dept garage a mile away didn't record .01 so does it count as 0? 

it counts as a trace -no "measurable rain", which I believe "no measurable precipitation" is the official streak...

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The warmup will continue tomorrow with the temperature reaching or exceeding 70° in parts of the region. The warmth will crest on Thursday with temperatures topping out well into the 70s across much of the region. The warmest spots, including Hartford, Newark and Philadelphia, will likely reach or exceed 80°.

Already, records were tied or broken in the Midwest. Records included:

Cleveland: 78° (tied record set in 1946)
Detroit: 79° (old record: 77°, 1999)
Green Bay: 82° (old record: 77°, 1937)
Milwaukee: 81° (tied record set in 1937)
Minneapolis: 80° (old record: 78°, 1922)

Green Bay's reading was the latest 80° or above temperature on record. The prior latest such temperature occurred on October 23, 1899.

Through 5 pm EDT today, New York City has seen just 0.01" of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 29 was 0.14" in 1963. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been a trace. The prior record was 0.09", which was set in 1924 and tied in 1963. Today is Philadelphia's 31st consecutive day with no measurable precipitation. The old record of 29 days was set during October 11 through November 8, 1874.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

Looking beyond October, November is likely to be warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal in the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -3.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.900 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.6° (2.7° above normal).

 

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A few spots could overperform and reach 80° today in NJ. Then more widespread 80° readings expected tomorrow. Thursday will be closer to record high temperatures in spots.

 

IMG_1714.thumb.png.617efb5554b73440891cc430a574a76e.png
IMG_1715.thumb.png.de5f74ff89a618c2853033d6f78cc695.png

The ensembles look like a torch and a continuation of the drought for November 

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59 / 52 warming to near 80 today ,  near / low 80s Thu and Fri ahead of the front which could bring more scattered showers.  beyond that near normal weekend, ridge rebuilds Tue for a very warm first week next month.  Trough / front with some cooler arriving between the 7 - 9th and the next chance of rain, otherwise after brief cool down overall warm with the dry continuing.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 

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Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 82 (1946)
NYC: 82 (1961)
LGA: 81 (1946)
JFK: 79 (1961)


Lows:

EWR: 31 (1932)
NYC: 31 (1925)
LGA: 35 (2011)
JFK: 30 (1962)

 

Historical:

1925 - Nashville, TN, was blanketed with an inch of snow, their earliest measurable snow of record. (The Weather Channel)

1947 - The Donora, PA, smog disaster finally came to an end. For five days an inversion trapped impurities in the lower atmosphere over the Monongahela Valley killing 20 persons, and leaving more than 2000 others sick. (26th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 74 mph near the town of Gould. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the central U.S. Temperatures warmed into the 80s form Texas to the Lower Missouri Valley. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Ten cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date. The morning low of 20 degrees at South Bend IND was a record for October, and lows of 18 degrees at Grand Rapids MI and 20 degrees at Fort Wayne IND equalled records for October. The low of 2 degrees at International Falls MN smashed their previous record for the date by 11 degrees. Syracuse NY received 2.9 inches of snow to establish a record for October with 5.7 inches for the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Temperatures soared into the 70s in the northeastern U.S. The record high of 73 degrees at Alpena MI marked their sixth straight day of record warmth. In the western U.S., Klamath Falls OR reported a record low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

 


1991: The Perfect Storm, also known as the No-Name Storm reached maximum strength on this day with a low pressure of 972 mb and sustained winds of 69 mph.

 

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/perfect-storm-hits-north-atlantic

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

A few spots could overperform and reach 80° today in NJ. Then more widespread 80° readings expected tomorrow. Thursday will be closer to record high temperatures in spots.

 

IMG_1714.thumb.png.617efb5554b73440891cc430a574a76e.png
IMG_1715.thumb.png.de5f74ff89a618c2853033d6f78cc695.png

 

It'll be interesting if Tue (5th) Wed (6th) can get any sites close to 80 during the next ridge expansion.

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17 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Has it ever hit 80 in November?

The last time was in 2022.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1950 85 0
2 2022 81 0
- 2003 81 0
- 1974 81 0
3 1993 80 0
- 1982 80 0
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