October 2024

[Allsnow]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If we get past 50% of normal snow this winter I’d call that a win. For me that’s about 15-16”. As we all know an endlessly raging Pacific jet means shutouts here. I wouldn’t mind warm and dry as much. If it won’t snow I’d rather it stay warm. The worst are the teases that get yanked away last minute. 

I’ll sign for last winter now for my backyard. We did very well considering other areas close to us. The 12-13 inch snow band on 2/17 really helped the grade imby 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

WV yeesh 

 

Also, with today's update, this week is the 13th highest percentage of D0-D4 for the CONUS since the Drought Monitor began in 2000. Although a lot less coverage of "severe" drought with the current stretch than the periods in 2022 & 2012, reflecting the more short-term nature of the deficits. While 79.33% of the CONUS is in D0-D4, nearly 30% of that area is just abnormally dry and not in one of the drought designations.

[MANDA]

Radar showed a few small blobs racing through my area between 4:30 and 5:00 this morning.  Ground was slightly damp at 6am but rain gauge did not have even a single drop.  Entered a "trace".  Third "T" of the month and that is it so far.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

yeah, that was a really non winter

That was the only winter back in Long Beach that I was able to ride the boardwalk practically every day. Very few storms and mild temperatures. I couldn’t believe at the time how different it was from the 93-94 and 95-96 winters. 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That was the only winter back in Long Beach that I was able to ride the boardwalk practically every day. Very few storms and mild temperatures. I couldn’t believe at the time how different it was from the 93-94 and 95-96 winters. 

Yeah it was about 50-60 degrees most days-once the higher sun angle hit in mid Feb it felt like spring. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2001)
NYC: 79 (2001)
LGA:  80 (2001)
JFK: 74 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 31 (1969)
LGA: 30 (1969)
JFK: 32 (1969)

Historical:

 

1785 - A four day rain swelled the Merrimack River in New Hampshire and Massachusetts to the greatest height of record causing extensive damage to bridges and mills. (David Ludlum)

1878 - A hurricane produced widespread damage across North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. At Philadelphia PA, the hurricane was the worst of record. (David Ludlum)

 

1878: The Gale of 1878 was an intense Category 2 hurricane that was active between October 18 and October 25. It caused extensive damage from Cuba to New England. Believed to be the strongest storm to hit the Washington - Baltimore region since hurricane records began in 1851.

1937 - A snow squall in Buffalo NY tied up traffic in six inches of slush. (David Ludlum)

1947 - The Bar Harbor holocaust occurred in Maine when forest fires consumed homes and a medical research institute. The fires claimed 17 lives, and caused thirty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1951 - Sacramento, CA, reported a barometric pressure of 29.42 inches, to establish a record for October. (The Weather Channel)

1969 - Unseasonably cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Lows of 10 degrees at Concord, NH, and 6 degrees at Albany NY established October records. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Snow fell across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin overnight, with five inches reported at Poplar Lake MN and Gunflint Trail MN. Thunderstorm rains caused flash flooding in south central Arizona, with street flooding reported around Las Vegas NV. Strong northwesterly winds gusting to 50 mph downed some trees and power lines in western Pennsylvania and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds circulating around a deep low pressure centered produced snow squalls in the Great Lakes Region, with six inches reported at Ironwood MI. Wind gusts to 80 mph were reported at State College PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A storm in the western U.S. produced up to three feet of snow in the mountains around Lake Tahoe, with 21 inches reported at Donner Summit. Thunderstorms in northern California produced 3.36 inches of rain at Redding to establish a 24 hour record for October, and bring their rainfall total for the month to a record 5.11 inches. Chiefly "Indian Summer" type weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 70s and 80s. Record highs included 74 degrees at International Falls MN, and 86 degrees at Yankton SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Hurricane Wilma reached the U.S. coastline near Everglades City in Florida with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph. The hurricane accelerated across south Florida and the Miami/Fort Lauderdale area, exiting the coast later the same day. There were 10 fatalities in Florida, and nearly 6 million people lost power, the most widespread power outage in Florida history. Preliminary estimates of insured losses in Florida were over $6 billion, while uninsured losses were over $12 billion.

[SACRUS]

 

Departures through 10/23

EWR: +3.2
JFK: +2.9
NYC: +2.2
ISP: +1.8
LGA: + 1.5

[MANDA]

Ugly looking!

[Big Jims Videos]

Cranberry farmers are taking a serious hit - especially if we don't get rain in November - this is my piece from yesterday. I love visiting these farms - the visuals are stunning. 

https://newjersey.news12.com/farmer-weeks-without-rain-is-impacting-new-jerseys-cranberry-harvest

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Monday morning looks to be the coldest morning of the fall so far…

 

then we quickly rebound mid week 

I'm a little nervous about Sunday night. Right now I think 33 or 34 so the growing season can continue here, but a very close call. My pole lima beans are still producing heavily and will keep doing that up until a freeze. If we can get through Sunday night, we'll be in good shape for it to continue for a long time with a warm pattern settling in. 

Looks like 80 degrees for Halloween. Crazy. 

[cardinalland]

tropical moisture may be our best bet in this region right now. it's the only way any model shows us getting rain

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

tropical moisture may be our best bet in this region right now. it's the only way any model shows us getting rain

Agree.  Need a storm (even if it's a disorganized mess) to ride the coast

[snowman19]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Agree.  Need a storm (even if it's a disorganized mess) to ride the coast

Which would not fit November climo at all. The westerlies are normally way too far south at that point

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Which would not fit November climo at all

No, but check out the tropical forum a few have noted the GFS has done well with TS formation this year and it's insistent on a storm forming later next week

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No, but check out the tropical forum a few have noted the GFS has done well with TS formation this year and it's insistent on a storm forming later next week

Ida 2009 but a tick north would be nice.  

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Departures through 10/23

EWR: +3.2
JFK: +2.9
NYC: +2.2
ISP: +1.8
LGA: + 1.5

And ewr just hit 70 so another well above average day pending tonight's low temperature a +10 still possible

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah it was about 50-60 degrees most days-once the higher sun angle hit in mid Feb it felt like spring. 

A 01-02 repeat in this warmer climate would make the last few winters seem colder by comparison. The 01-02 winter went +7.1 in NYC against the much colder normals of that time. It averaged 41.5° and the same departure these days would yield a 43.3° average. Would be +1.8° warmer than 01-02 and +2.3° warmer than 22-23. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2023-2024	40.6	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

[WX-PA]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A 01-02 repeat in this warmer climate would make the last few winters seem colder by comparison. The 01-02 winter went +7.1 in NYC against the much colder normals of that time. It averaged 41.5° and the same departure these days would yield a 43.3° average. It would be +1.8° warmer than 01-02 and +2.3° warmer than 22-23. 
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2022-2023	41.0	0
-	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2023-2024	40.6	0
4	2011-2012	40.5	0
5	1931-1932	40.1	0
6	1997-1998	39.6	0
7	2016-2017	39.3	0
8	2019-2020	39.2	0
9	1990-1991	39.1	0
10	1998-1999	38.6	0

is 01-02 a analog?..There was one snow event in January..besides that there was no winter.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

is 01-02 a analog?..There was one snow event in January..besides that there was no winter.

01-02 only works as an analog if December comes out of the gate really warm and doesn’t trail off or reverse after. We got a very warm December in that range in 21 but the reversal in January took a +7 winter out of play. Then 22-23 started slightly cooler than avg in December before January and February averaged +7.5. Last winter started very warm again but the departures lagged in January and February. So it has been a challenge for NYC to get much beyond +5 in recent winters since it’s hard to sustain such high departures over a 3 month period. The bigger story has been the sustained above to near to record warmth since 15-16. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

I think we see the anomalous dry conditions continue right through the end of November and it ends up another record dry month. I don’t believe the GFS fantasy of a tropical cyclone coming up the coast for one second. Besides not fitting November climo, the models show the normal seasonal progression of the westerlies well south by the beginning of the month. A dry feedback loop is firmly in place now

[forkyfork]

another gulf system with a bad pattern for bringing it up the coast

[WX-PA]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think we see the anomalous dry conditions continue right through the end of November and it ends up another record dry month. I don’t believe the GFS fantasy of a tropical cyclone coming up the coast for one second. Besides not fitting November climo, the models show the normal seasonal progression of the westerlies well south by the beginning of the month. A dry feedback loop is firmly in place now

It will definitely rain in November. We don't live in a desert.

[Big Jims Videos]

November is on average one of the drier months. We'll see what happens. 

[Brian5671]

"only" got to 68 here today-actually felt like fall.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

another gulf system with a bad pattern for bringing it up the coast

The drought continues....zzzzz

[donsutherland1]

The cooling trend that got underway today will continue tomorrow. Temperatures will top out in the lower 60s. After a somewhat warmer Saturday, a shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is likely Sunday into Monday before it warms up quickly early next week.

Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat is affecting Phoenix and Tucson. The heat will persist through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 24 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has also been a trace. That ties the old record of a trace from 1886. Further, today is Philadelphia's 26th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 3rd longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +16.31 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.658 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.0° (2.1° above normal).

 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, FPizz said:

Ida 2009 but a tick north would be nice.  

That literally killed people. A lot of people and caused a lot of damage.

 

Even though many people on here are screaming like the sky is falling we are hardly in a major drought situation.

We certainly don’t need any tropical storm like Ida ever again. That was a fucking disaster be a tick in any direction.

 

We are like 2 inches low in annual rainfall.

 

 

[snowman19]

If the overnight ensemble runs are correct about the upper level pattern at the beginning of November, whatever tropical development happens will have no way of making it up the coast. Strong westerlies all the way into the Deep South. Any TC development would get shunted right OTS. Not much of a surprise though as that is typical of November

[bluewave]

The unusual thing about the airmass next week will be how warm the minimums will be to our west. Models have been hinting at lows near 70° in Iowa. This could be a first for so late in the season as the departures are forecast to be off the charts.