IrishRob17 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are seeing huge diurnal swings (similar to the desert SW) because of the drought pattern over the last few months. Soil moisture is way, way below normal. Dry ground, low humidity, radiates heat very easily, unlike saturated ground which retains it Correct. I'd like to think that most here understand that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We are seeing huge diurnal swings (similar to the desert SW) because of the drought pattern over the last few months. Soil moisture is way, way below normal. Dry ground, low humidity, radiates heat very easily, unlike saturated ground which retains it in the boundary layer We need some sort of stalled front or a big nor easter to turn things around...neither looks likely for the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the 2nd and 3rd greatest October daily temperature range for your area back to 1997. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=MGJ&v=largest&month=oct&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png For that top spot you can see while the '22 drought was improving at that point it was still pretty dry up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We need some sort of stalled front or a big nor easter to turn things around...neither looks likely for the foreseeable future. A drought is the one thing we've managed to avoid in this climate, but perhaps not anymore. Models show little to no rain next 2 weeks with warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 9 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: For that top spot you can see while the '22 drought was improving at that point it was still pretty dry up here. At least the 80° heat will feel more comfortable with such low dews and humidity. We would probably be talking 95-100 if this was back during the summer. But this should allow the vegetation and soil moisture to dry out further with future drought monitor updates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 8 hours ago, winterwx21 said: I think the warmth for the next few days looks as impressive as it always has. Still looks likely that we're gonna see low 80s here Monday and Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see warm spots get as high as 83. Maybe after that (starting Thursday) the cooldown looks a little more impressive than it did a few days ago. High temps might stay in the 60s for most of the rest of the month, but it's possible we'll warm back up to the low 70s for the last couple days of the month. Overall much warmer than normal from now until the end of the month. And even mid to upper 60s will be above average by next week. I think we're at least +7 the remainder of the month finishing +3 to 3.5 overall (at ewr) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 26 minutes ago, CCM said: Yeah, the past few runs have corrected warmer finally, so that's nice to see. The 6z run in particular was just ridiculous with multiple days in the 80s for Chicago. Yeah, this is one of the few times of the year with a La Niña and -PDO that a MJO 8 is so warm in the East. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 57 / 40, well into the 70s today to near 80 in the warm spots. Mon - Tue - near to low 80s. Wed mid to upper 70. Front comes through Wed night and its looking dry on most forecats. Cooler Thu - Sat near normal. Beyond that the ridge rebuilds by the 28 and through the close of the month. Overall warmer than normal with the dryness rolling on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 Records: Highs: EWR: 80 (2021) NYC: 80 (1969) LGA: 80 (2021) JFK: 81 (1969) Lows: EWR: 31 (1974) NYC: 31 (1974) LGA: 32 (1972) JFK: 33 (1974) Historical: 1770 - An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. (David Ludlum) 1770: An exceedingly great storm struck eastern New England causing extensive coastal damage from Massachusetts to Maine, and the highest tide in 47 years. 1983 - Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th. (17th-21st) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Cold arctic air invaded the Upper Midwest, and squalls in the Lake Superior snowbelt produced heavy snow in eastern Ashland County and northern Iron County of Wisconsin. Totals ranged up to 18 inches at Mellen. In the western U.S., the record high of 69 degrees at Seattle WA was their twenty-fifth of the year, their highest number of record highs for any given year. Bakersfield CA reported a record 146 days in a row with daily highs 80 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. In California, afternoon highs of 96 degrees at Redding and Red Bluff were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Forty-nine cities reported record low temperatures for the date as readings dipped into the 20s and 30s across much of the south central and southeastern U.S. Lows of 32 degrees at Lake Charles LA and 42 degrees at Lakeland FL were records for October, and Little Rock AR reported their earliest freeze of record. Snow blanketed the higher elevations of Georgia and the Carolinas. Melbourne FL dipped to 47 degrees shortly before midnight to surpass the record low established that morning. Showers and thunderstorms brought heavy rain to parts of the northeastern U.S. Autumn leaves on the ground clogged drains and ditches causing flooding. Up to 4.10 inches of rain soaked southern Vermont in three days. Flood waters washed 600 feet of railroad track, resulting in a train derailment. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 This is not a copy and paste but seems like it since Sep 29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 Nicest fall we ever had 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 That is a lot of real estate with not a cloud in sight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 We have a shot at the driest October on record especially if the late month 590 DM Southeast Ridge verifies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have a shot at the driest October on record especially if the late month 590 DM Southeast Ridge and widespread 80s verifies. This is insane. 80s well north entering November. Jesus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 Can’t remember the last time we had a stretch of clear skies like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Nicest fall we ever had Until everything starts burning and water restrictions go up 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Until everything starts burning and water restrictions go up No need for water restrictions it’s been a record wet year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No need for water restrictions it’s been a record wet year That is the only thing “saving” it right now. The reserve water supplies are still good. This dry pattern didn’t start until just after mid-August. If the entire spring and summer was dry we’d be screwed by now. That said, if this continues next month then we have a dry winter, we have problems come spring…..big problems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That is the only thing “saving” it right now. The reserve water supplies are still good. This dry pattern didn’t start until just after mid-August. If the entire spring and summer was dry we’d be screwed by now. That said, if this is a dry winter, then we have problems come spring…..big problems If your analog is correct then we're in trouble. Potential severe drought heading into spring/summer? Would be a fire season for the history books. I'm more concerned about that than water restrictions...for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: If your analog is correct then we're in trouble. Potential severe drought heading into spring/summer? Would be a fire season for the history books. I'm more concerned about that than water restrictions...for now. I was joking with you and Anthony about 11-12. I do think 01-02 may be an analog though given the solar max/very high solar flux, -PDO, -ENSO, cold GOA and Bering Sea and the very dry fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Nicest fall we ever had I vaguely remember a nice fall back in the late 70's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Nicest fall we ever had Agree..how can anyone complain? Also after it looked an early leaf drop and not very colorful leaf season we basically went from 15 days ahead to maybe 4-5 days ahead of schedule with some of the most brilliant leaf colors that i have see in years. Deep reds and blood ranges intermixed with bright yellows and the still yet to change greens. Its Mother Nature like she has not been in decades 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 74 and brilliant today. California weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 Feels cooler than it usually does approaching 80° with the very low dew points and humidity. Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 77 35 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 73 beautiful degrees here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 8 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like the 2nd and 3rd greatest October daily temperature range for your area back to 1997. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=MGJ&v=largest&month=oct&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png After that low of 32 I made it to 75 for the high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Can’t remember the last time we had a stretch of clear skies like this It’s like further south and in CA when the jet stream lifts north of them after the winter. And we have little moisture in the air for pop up storms like they have in the SE. Beautiful days but lawns and grass everywhere brown and crisped. Crazy after what the summer was like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 20 Share Posted October 20 In part, due to the ongoing intensifying drought, fall foliage in New York City's distant suburbs is beginning to explode in color. Five photos from Rockefeller Preserve State Park: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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