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7 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

I can feel this winter will be different than the ones we've seen in the previous years....

Not anything crazy (obviously I can't tell nor explain why) 

But I feel this winter is gonna catch a lot of us off guard

Odds strongly favor you will be correct. I would say different than the ones we've seen in recent previous years. I would be surprised if we didn't get more snow and colder temperatures than recent years. Then again, I see below average precipitation continuing so I'm not looking for it to be special.

WX/PT

 

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It’s tough to get sustained cold any time of the year these days when what was originally forecast to be a modest ridge a few weeks ago expanded into a near record 591 dm ridge.

Old forecast

IMG_1607.thumb.png.372089c72db7fef81cdaeb5e249f10f2.png

Verification

 

IMG_1605.thumb.png.7683409d5db1dae86c23f4377deade9d.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Some nice diurnal temperature swings here the last few days:

Thu: 28/58

Fri: 29/67

Sat: 31/70(forecast)

Yeah, the near record low dew points and humidity give the usual spots a boost in the radiational cooling department on mornings like this. 
 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

It`s also notable just how dry the
airmass is, with Whiteface`s dewpoint of -13F.
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the near record low dew points and humidity give the usual spots a boost in the radiational cooling department on mornings like this. 
 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

It`s also notable just how dry the
airmass is, with Whiteface`s dewpoint of -13F.

Absolutely. Should have decent swings tomorrow and Monday as well thanks to the dryness. 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the near record low dew points and humidity give the usual spots a boost in the radiational cooling department on mornings like this. 
 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

It`s also notable just how dry the
airmass is, with Whiteface`s dewpoint of -13F.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s tough to get sustained cold any time of the year these days when what was originally forecast to be a modest ridge a few weeks ago expanded into a near record 591 dm ridge.

Old forecast

IMG_1607.thumb.png.372089c72db7fef81cdaeb5e249f10f2.png

Verification

 

IMG_1605.thumb.png.7683409d5db1dae86c23f4377deade9d.png

 

 

Are there verification scores for the Euro AI? I would think/hope it’s catching onto all these situations where the ridge in the East is stronger than forecast 7 days out or more. 

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Precipitation through October 18: New York City: Trace; Philadelphia: 0.00" (Phoenix: Trace). The latest weekly precipitation forecasts remain bone dry for the Mid-Atlantic:

CFSv2:

image.png.de30d4341cd389a217a0551c79e1b2cf.png

ECMWF:

image.png.c87bedd46502bb0d3016c4526b872dc1.png

image.png.a53a28c8eeb41bbb19f1991f5ad6e4e7.png

Brutal. Worst drought in years 

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32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather 

Exactly.  Reservoir levels are at average to date, so not really going to complain about perfect weather.  

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34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather 

the river that gives me the water i use to water my fall greens needs to stay flowing thx

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45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather 

What will happen first our first freeze or meaningful rainfall? 
 

we might not get our first freeze until late November now 

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67 / 38 off a low of 35.  Sunny - sunny  sunny, 70s today, near / low 80s Sunday - Tuesday .   Wed looks like dry frontal passage later in the day.  A bit cooler (near normal) Thu - Sat before warming up on the 28th.  Overall warmer with the dryness continuing,

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 87 (2016)
NYC: 85 (2016)
LGA: 86 (2016)
JFK: 86 (2016)

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1976)
NYC: 30 (1940)
LGA: 32 (1940)
JFK: 31 (1976)

 

Historical:

 

1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum)

1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel)

1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the year.

1996: The opening game of World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn.

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49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What will happen first our first freeze or meaningful rainfall? 
 

we might not get our first freeze until late November now 

Isn't the average mid November on the coast?

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

What will happen first our first freeze or meaningful rainfall? 
 

we might not get our first freeze until late November now 

Interesting that MJO looks to move into phase 8 to start November. I wonder if things may trend cooler for once 

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