October 2024

[BlizzLuv]

19 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Even with the warm pattern settling in, I think it's probably too late to plant grass. You typically want to plant grass seed a month and half before the first frost. 

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

[Stormlover74]

Monday looks to be getting close to record high territory now. Possibly 82 to 84 at ewr 

Looks like the record is 88 so probably not in jeopardy though 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

That sucks.  I had an electric fence for my dog put in years ago and saved all the little flags that they originally put in for training, so when I seed I put those out around the areas for that exact reason.

[SACRUS]

 

57 / 34 off a low of 33.  Near / low 70s in the warm spots.  Warm through Wed (10/23) peaking near / low 80s Mon - Tue, upper 70s wed.  Cool front, perhaps a shower but looks mainly dry Wed night into Thu.  Overall warmer than normal again by next weekend 10/26 and into the close of the month with the dry period continuing.

 

[MANDA]

30 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

Gotta love inconsiderate people. 

Been there and it is infuriating.

In the meantime this dry pattern rolls on.  The chilly nights this week have been great!

[forkyfork]

31 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said:

Agreed. I planted grass seed several weeks ago where my neighbor's contractor had to dig up my lawn to repair his water line. They promised to reseed and did not. I finally did it myself just in time and now, last week, their landscaper ran the lawnmower over the spouting grass, ripping up green sprout, rutting the new soil and blowing away the hay topping. I am livid as too late for me to reseed again. 

most of those guys have no idea what they're doing

[forkyfork]

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Monday looks to be getting close to record high territory now. Possibly 82 to 84 at ewr 

Looks like the record is 88 so probably not in jeopardy though 

who knows with this dryness

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 85 (2016)
NYC: 82 (1928)
LGA: 82 (2016)
JFK: 77 (1964)



Lows:

EWR: 32 (1982)
NYC: 35 (1974)
LGA: 35 (1939)
JFK: 37 (1978)

HIstorical:

 

1906 - A hurricane struck South Florida drowning 124 persons stranded in the Florida Keys. (David Ludlum)

1910 - Northeasterly winds as high as 70 mph (from a hurricane moving northward up the Florida peninsula) carried water out of Tampa Bay and the Hillsboro River. The water level lowered to nine feet below mean low water. Forty ships were grounded. (The Weather Channel)

1916: A tropical depression organized to a tropical storm on October 11 in the western Caribbean. It moved westward, reaching hurricane strength on the 13th before hitting the Yucatán Peninsula on the 15th as a 110 mph hurricane. It weakened over land, and it emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. It quickly re-strengthened to a Category 3 hurricane, hitting Pensacola on October 18. The maximum wind velocity at Mobile was 115 mph from the east at 8:25 am. Pensacola had winds of 120 mph at 10:13 am when the wind instrument tower was blown down.

1930 - A big early season lake effect snowburst on the lee shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario produced 47 inches at Governeur NY and 48 inches just south of Buffalo. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms in northeastern Texas produced golf ball size hail at Atlanta, along with wind gusts to 86 mph, and four inches of rain. Damage from the storm was estimated at more than a million dollars. Sunny and mild weather continued across much of the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Eight cities in the southwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Red Bluff CA with a reading of 96 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold air began to invade the central and eastern U.S. Light snow fell across northern Maine, and snow was also reported in the Great Lakes Region, including the Chicago area. Bismarck ND was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 9 degrees above zero. Five cities in Florida reported record high readings for the date, as temperatures warmed above 80 degrees. Miami FL reported a record high of 90 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2005 - With the formation of Hurricane Wilma, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season tied the record for the most named storms for any season (21 storms in 1933), and also tied the record for the most hurricanes in a single season (12 in 1969). Wilma peaked at category-5 intensity on the 19th, with a minimum central pressure falling to 882 millibars (26.05 inches of mercury), the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. Wilma also became the most rapidly-intensifying storm on record, with a maximum-sustained surface wind speed increase of 105 mph in a 24-hour period.

 

2005: Hurricane Wilma developed a tiny, well-defined eye and began intensifying rapidly, reaching Category 5 strength with a record-setting pressure of 882 millibars by October 19. The rapid intensification from a tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours was the fastest ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean, and the second-fastest worldwide, after Super Typhoon Forrest.

[SACRUS]

 

dry-javu

[SACRUS]

On 10/17/2024 at 8:08 AM, SACRUS said:

 

Cool spell

 

EWR:

10/15:  60 / 45 (-5)
10/16: 62 / 43 (-4)
10/17:  63 / 41 (-5)

NYC:

10/15: 57 / 45 (-7)
10/16: 59 / 44 (-6)
10/17  58 / 43 (-7)

 

LGA:

10/15: 59 / 46 (-7)
10/16: 59 / 45  (-8)
10/17:  59 / 45 (-7)


JFK:

JFK:

10/15:  60 / 46 (-5)
10/16:  62 / 45 (-3)
10/17: 63 / 43 (-4)

 

 

[TJW014]

Beautiful and not so chilly night out on the beach. Atlas comet still visible despite the extremely bright moon.

[bluewave]

A number of locations across the region with either the driest first half of fall or very close. 
 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1884-10-16	0.53	0
2	2024-10-16	0.77	0
3	1970-10-16	0.89	0
4	1878-10-16	1.06	0
5	1879-10-16	1.13	0

 

Time Series Summary for Trenton Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-16	0.43	0
2	1970-10-16	0.97	0
3	1941-10-16	1.26	0
4	1897-10-16	1.49	1
5	2007-10-16	1.58	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1994-10-16	0.52	1
2	2024-10-16	1.06	0
3	1941-10-16	1.09	0
4	1953-10-16	1.56	0
5	1914-10-16	1.80	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-16	0.89	0
2	1941-10-16	1.36	0
3	1953-10-16	1.78	0
4	2013-10-16	1.92	0
5	1948-10-16	2.01	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1884-10-16	0.83	0
2	1886-10-16	1.19	0
3	2024-10-16	1.58	0
-	1881-10-16	1.58	0
4	1892-10-16	1.59	0
5	1910-10-16	1.68	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-16	0.83	0
2	2009-10-16	1.40	0
3	1964-10-16	1.85	0
4	1986-10-16	2.16	0
5	2013-10-16	2.18	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-16	0.34	0
2	1982-10-16	1.43	0
3	1973-10-16	1.88	0
-	1967-10-16	1.88	0
4	1997-10-16	1.92	0
5	2013-10-16	1.98	0
-	1985-10-16	1.98	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1997-10-16	0.74	0
2	1964-10-16	0.76	0
3	2024-10-16	0.84	0
4	1948-10-16	1.54	0
5	1953-10-16	1.84	0

[Nibor]

 

[Allsnow]

Send rain please 

 

 

[Allsnow]

November looking warm 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Send rain please 

 

 

Can't even buy a cloud

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

dry-javu

Saving it for a snowy winter. Bank on it.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

November looking warm 

 

 

Wouldn’t be that big of a surprise since November and March have been warmer during the 2020s than they used to be back in the 2010s when those were pretty reliable cold months. 
 

Newark 

NOV…23….-0.4

NOV...22….+4.0

NOV…21….+0.1

NOV….20..+4.5

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	49.0	49.1
2023	46.6	46.6
2022	51.0	51.0
2021	47.1	47.1
2020	51.5	51.5

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	45.7	45.7
2019	42.8	42.8
2018	43.7	43.7
2017	46.1	46.1
2016	49.7	49.7
2015	52.0	52.0
2014	43.9	43.9
2013	44.4	44.4
2012	43.3	43.3

[guinness77]

lol. Looking at the 2-week GFS, there’s like a forcefield around our area in regards to precipitation. Anything that gets close just…falls apart. 

[doncat]

Can we go as an entire month with no measurable rain? Seems almost impossible for us but here we are. Lowest monthly precip I've ever recorded is 0.53".

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Saving it for a snowy winter. Bank on it.

Or 11/12. Hate to say it because snow removal is part of my income… we need things to change big time and fast. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

lol. Looking at the 2-week GFS, there’s like a forcefield around our area in regards to precipitation. Anything that gets close just…falls apart. 

Droughts tend to be self regulating, as in the extremely low soil moisture disallows moisture transport into the clouds. We need a major storm (tropical) or a nor’easter to draw in moisture off the ocean. Unfortunately that’s not going to happen this current high.

[Allsnow]

59 minutes ago, doncat said:

Can we go as an entire month with no measurable rain? Seems almost impossible for us but here we are. Lowest monthly precip I've ever recorded is 0.53".

Euro has nothing for the rest of the month 

[lee59]

Finally a night with no wind, maybe some radiational cooling.

[FPizz]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

November looking warm 

 

 

I start caring around Thanksgiving, before then I'd prefer warmer for leaf cleanup

[winterwx21]

The 70 degree weather felt good today. I wish we could get some rain, but this is great weather.

I drove up to Sussex County and went to Swartwood Park today. Lots of nice color up there. I was concerned that the extremely dry weather might mess up the fall foliage season, but it looks pretty good. Some trees lost leaves early, but still plenty of great color. 

[donsutherland1]

The ongoing warming trend will continue through the weekend and into early next week. By Sunday parts of the region will be experiencing 70° or above high temperatures. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern now developing, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Any cool shots during that time would be brief.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 18 was 0.02" in 1879, 1886, and 1947). At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace through 1886. Almost all of the region is now in DO (abnormally dry) conditions. Southern New Jersey, Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania are in D1 (moderate drought) conditions with some areas of D2 (severe drought conditions).

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, the expansive area of D0 conditions in the region will evolve into D1 conditions and the area of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey, and parts of Delaware and Maryland will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was -8.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.364 yesterday.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

 

[steve392]

Was up in NW Passaic county.  The reservoirs up there are soooo low.  A lot of the old roadways are exposed from they were still parts of towns. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen clear skies like this. Perfection. This is a beast of a high pressure

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s been a long time since I’ve seen clear skies like this. Perfection. This is a beast of a high pressure

And it’ll go on for days and days and days.