October 2024

[Volcanic Winter]

My wife and I were up in Hamburg this weekend for her birthday, making the most of the gloomy weather. 
 

Beautiful up there, hope to do some hiking in Sussex this winter. 

[lee59]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think it's days 6 to 10. Well be above normal the next few (Thursday thru Sunday)

Yes you are correct.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

How many days in a row now have we seen winds out of an easterly quadrant? It seems like since the first week of September.

WX/PT

[Dan76]

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

How many days in a row now have we seen winds out of an easterly quadrant? It seems like since the first week of September.

WX/PT

Pretty much the whole month.

[bluewave]

Warmer first week of October with temps near 80° in NJ into the weekend before we cool off again next week. The record breaking heat will be found out West. Fall temperature pattern for the CONUS similar to 2022 so far but a little warmer in the East.

 

[Allsnow]

Need more Rain 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Need more Rain 

Unfortunately, extremes of wet and dry with very little moderation in between. 
 

 

[dieselbug]

8 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

How many days in a row now have we seen winds out of an easterly quadrant? It seems like since the first week of September.

WX/PT

Yeah pretty much every day for the last three weeks.  

We usually have planes flying over our house (en route to PHL) nearly 24/7...unless the wind is easterly or NE. For some reason the aircraft will take a different path when winds are E/NE. 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 minutes ago, dieselbug said:

Yeah pretty much every day for the last three weeks.  

We usually have planes flying over our house (en route to PHL) nearly 24/7...unless the wind is easterly or NE. For some reason the aircraft will take a different path when winds are E/NE. 

Aircraft land and take off against the wind for fuel savings, so an easterly flow would have an aircraft landing and take off pattern opposite that of the typical westerly regime. For landing, it helps with braking. For takeoff, less speed is required for lift if the air is moving opposite the aircraft.

[WX-PA]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer first week of October with temps near 80° in NJ into the weekend before we cool off again next week. The record breaking heat will be found out West. Fall temperature pattern for the CONUS similar to 2022 so far but a little warmer in the East.

 

2022 the lowest snowfall for NYC in history..Hope the winter doesn't continue the analog lol

[Allsnow]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer first week of October with temps near 80° in NJ into the weekend before we cool off again next week. The record breaking heat will be found out West. Fall temperature pattern for the CONUS similar to 2022 so far but a little warmer in the East.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

 

<<< OCTOBER RECORDS for NYC >>>

 

DATE ____ High max ___ High min _____ Low max ___ Low min _________Max prec (r) _ Max 2d rain _ Max snow (10th to 31st)

Oct 01 ___ 88 1927 ____ 72 1881, 1954 _ 51 1899 ____ 36 1947 (60) _____4.98 1913 ___ 4.98 1913*__ 2d rain 3.56 2010 (1.10+2.46)

Oct 02 ___ 93 2019 ____ 72 1954 ______ 49 1899 ____ 39 1886 (54) _____2.16 1929 ___ 5.28 1913 __  

Oct 03 ___ 87 1919 ____ 68 1954, 69 ___47 1888 ____ 38 1888,99,1974 __1.84 1869 ___ 2.16 1929**_  

Oct 04 ___ 88 1941 ____ 75 1898 _______51 1883 _____ 37 1888 (55) ______4.05 1877 ___ 4.05 1877*__ 2d rain 3.90 1869 (1.84+2.06)

Oct 05 ___ 94 1941^____ 75 1898^______50 1881 _____ 35 1881 ___________1.99 1995 ___ 4.07 1877 __  

Oct 06 ___ 90 1941 ____ 71 1910 _______ 50 1935 _____ 36 1881 (60) ______2.70 1871 ___ 2.70 1871*__  2.39" R 1955 (1d)

Oct 07 ___ 88 1944 ____ 70 2005 ______ 48 1873 ____ 39 1954, 99 ______4.09 1972 ___ 4.38 1972 __  

Oct 08 ___ 87 2007 ____ 72 2017 ______ 45 1988 ____ 37 1988 __________ 4.30 1903 ___ 4.49 2005 (0.23+4.26) ^

Oct 09 ___ 86 1916 ____ 71 2017 _______ 43 1888 ____ 37 1888, 1988 ____ 7.33 1903 ___11.63 1903 __ 

Oct 10 ___ 91 1939 ____ 71 2018 _______ 43 1925 ____ 35 1888 ___________2.44 1871 ___ 7.50 1903 __ Tr sn 1925,79

Oct 11 ___ 85 1949 ____ 69 2018 _______ 48 1951 ____ 34 1964 (55) ______3.06 2002 ___ 3.25 2002 __ 

Oct 12 ___ 86 1928,54 _ 67 1954 _______ 49 1875,87,91_35 1876 (52) ______4.26 2005 __ 4.39 2005, 4.34 2002 _  3.40 1983 1dR

Oct 13 ___ 87 1954 ____ 69 1990 _______ 47 1874 ____ 34 1875 (51) ______2.75 2005 ___ 7.01 2005 __ Tr sn  1937

Oct 14 ___ 84 1920 ____ 68 1990 _______ 45 1889 ____ 37 1988 (53 13th)_ 1.76 1995 ___ 4.29 2005 __ 

Oct 15 ___ 84 1956 ____ 69 2014 _______ 46 1876 ____ 32 1876 __________ 1.70 1943 ___ 1.95 1995 __ 0.5" sn 1876

Oct 16 ___ 87 1897 ____ 67 1897 _______ 46 2009 ____ 34 1876 (49) ______2.15 1974 ___ 2.35 1974 __ 

Oct 17 ___ 90 1938 ____ 67 1928 _______ 47 1970 ____ 33 1886 (47 16th) _2.28 1936 ___ 2.30 1936 __ Trace sn 1929

Oct 18 ___ 82 1928 ____ 69 1928 _______ 45 2009 ____35 1929,39,74 _____2.45 1911 ___ 3.24 1932^__Trace sn 1926,72

Oct 19 ___ 85 2016 ____ 68 1905 _______ 43 1972 _____30 1940 (45) ______4.35 1996^___ 4.35 1996*__ Trace sn 1940,72

Oct 20 ___ 80 1947,69 _ 65 1916, 84 ___ 44 1974 _____31 1974 ___________2.78 1989 ___ 4.50 1996^__ 0.5" sn 1952

Oct 21 ___ 84 1920 ____ 64 1947, 79 ___ 43 1888 _____31 1871 (52 20th) _2.17 1995 ___ 2.78 1989**_ 

Oct 22 ___ 88 1979 ____ 67 1979 _______ 43 1887 ____ 30 1940 (51) ______1.51 2014 ___ 2.17 1995**_  

Oct 23 ___ 85 1947 ____ 67 1979 _______ 42 1889 ____ 32 1969 (43) ______2.97 1912 ___ 2.99 1912 __  

Oct 24 ___ 79 2001 ____ 67 2017 _______ 44 1889 ____ 31 1969 (51) ______2.51 1917 ___ 3.92 1923^__Trace sn 1960

Oct 25 ___ 79 1963 ____ 69 1908 _______ 40 1879 ____ 29 1879 __________ 3.30 1913 ___ 3.94 1913 __ 

Oct 26 ___ 78 1963,64 _ 66 1908 _______ 39 1962 ____ 30 1869, 79 ______ 3.40 1943 ___ 3.54 1943 __Tr sn 1903,28,62

Oct 27 ___ 82 1963 ____ 66 1908 _______ 39 1869 ____ 28 1936 (43) ______1.88 2003 ___ 3.55 1943 __ Tr sn 1903,44

Oct 28 ___ 83 1919 ____ 64 1971 ________ 41 1876 _____29 1976 (42 27th)_ 2.49 1953 ___ 2.54 2006 __ Tr sn 1925,34,65

Oct 29 ___ 78 1971 ____ 63 1946 _______ 43 1909,25,52_ 31 1925 (43) ______3.67 1973 ___ 3.67 1973*__ 2.9" sn 2011 

Oct 30 ___ 82 1946,61 _ 64 1918, 46 ___ 38 1925 _____ 31 1925 __________1.64 1917 ___ 3.89 1973 ___ 0.8" sn 1925

Oct 31 ___ 81 1946 ____ 62 1881, 1961 _ 41 1869 _____ 29 1887, 1925 (44)_2.41 1956 ___ 2.41 1956*__ (no snow)

-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --

^ 5th _ Min with the extreme Oct max of 94 in 1941 was 71. Max with the extreme high mins in 1898 were 80, 81.

^ 7th to 14th _ 2005 had 13.25" rain in eight days with two amounts of 4.26" (8th,12th) and another 4.29" 13th-14th.

^ 18th _ 2d max rain 1932 3.24" (1.15+2.09) also 2.89" 1927 (0.98+1.91). Both greater than 1911 which had zero added.

^ 19th _ 3.12" R in 1966 (1d) .. 3.72 2d 1911 (2.45+1.27). 

^ 20th _ 4.19" 2d rain 1989 (1.41+2.78)

^ 23-24 _ 3.92" 2d rain 1923 (2.45+1.47)

________________________________________________________________________________________

Notes:

For 2d rain, ** indicates all rain fell previous day, ^ indicates all rain fell only on calendar date (all 2d records are previous day added to day of listing)

1903 2d rain is also annual max. 

For low min, any temp in brackets is a daily max on same date, not a record low max. 

Snowfall record column sometimes has overflow from 2d rainfall, "sn" always added to snowfall daily records (starting on Oct 10)

2.9" on Oct 29, 2011 is only 2.5"+ amt before Nov 6 (1879, 2.5") and not surpassed to 4.3" (Nov 7, 2012).

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

It’s better that this occurring at the end of the growing season rather than closer to peak heating like we got from the 90s into early 00s with 100° heat and very little rain.

[Cyg]

Biked down to the end of Island Beach State Park today from around Mantaloking. I was expecting it to be cloudy but it was like mostly sunny the whole time with an ENE wind. The back half of the ride was annoying with some headwind, but it could have been a lot worse.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with temperatures again reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. It will likely turn somewhat milder for Friday and Saturday. Cooler air could arrive Sunday with the coolest air so far this season arriving early next week.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. Through 3:50 pm MST, Phoenix had reached a daily record 108°. That marked the second consecutive day that the temperature surpassed the pre-2024 October monthly record. The extreme heat will persist into the weekend.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was 0.00 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.697 today.

 

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

Driest August 20th through October 3rd for ISP with only .30.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-03	0.30	1
2	2005-10-03	1.33	0
3	2014-10-03	1.71	0
4	2019-10-03	2.14	0
5	1968-10-03	2.29	0
6	1963-10-03	2.30	16
7	2007-10-03	2.39	0
8	1973-10-03	2.40	0
9	2013-10-03	2.59	0

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Driest August 20th through October 3rd for ISP with only .30.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-03	0.30	1
2	2005-10-03	1.33	0
3	2014-10-03	1.71	0
4	2019-10-03	2.14	0
5	1968-10-03	2.29	0
6	1963-10-03	2.30	16
7	2007-10-03	2.39	0
8	1973-10-03	2.40	0
9	2013-10-03	2.59	0

Only going to get worst 

[SACRUS]

 

70 / 53  Variable cloudy an more sun later.  Warmer few days but looks like more clouds tomorrow before a sunnier / warmer / dry weekend.   Outside of some showers monday morning, dry next week.    Cooler Tue - Thu next week before a warmer end to next week.  Perhaps a bit of back and forth temps wise the next week or two.

 

[Dark Star]

13 hours ago, Cyg said:

Biked down to the end of Island Beach State Park today from around Mantaloking. I was expecting it to be cloudy but it was like mostly sunny the whole time with an ENE wind. The back half of the ride was annoying with some headwind, but it could have been a lot worse.

At least you didn't have to contend with summer traffic.  I could not imagine biking this roadway with cars passing you out.  They should have a wider shoulder, with a bike lane and preferably a rumble strip separating the lane.

[SACRUS]

 

2-3 day cool down 10/ 8 - 10th followed by warmup 10/9 - 1011 then cooler again - bit of a back and forth next week and into mid month

 

[SACRUS]

Outside of Tacoma and Florida nowhere else to find much rain the next 7 days,

 

[Allsnow]

48 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Outside of Tacoma and Florida nowhere else to find much rain the next 7 days,

 

Good for recovery efforts in NC 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

Outside of Tacoma and Florida nowhere else to find much rain the next 7 days,

 

More like 16 days in the northeast

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Only going to get worst 

At least we aren’t getting the all-time October heat like out West which would equate to mid 90s here.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we aren’t getting the all-time October heat like out West which would equate to mid 90s here.

 

 

Looks like it's making its way east.

 

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we aren’t getting the all-time October heat like out West which would equate to mid 90s here.

 

 

Let’s keep that ridge out there for the next 6 months please 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

At least we aren’t getting the all-time October heat like out West which would equate to mid 90s here.

 

 

Can’t believe I’m saying it but in a way it’s good we had the August deluge (for LI) or else we’d be starting to look at a significant drought. From record El Niño wet winter to this now. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s keep that ridge out there for the next 6 months please 

That Western Ridge has been very persistent for the La Niña years during the 2020s from summer into fall.

 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s keep that ridge out there for the next 6 months please