October 2024

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Phl might break the record 

 

 

Yeah, the GFS came in over 591 DM with the ridge this weekend.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the GFS came in over 591 DM with the ridge this weekend.

 

The crazy thing is New Jersey and Pennsylvania are some of the wettest places in the country right now.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

The crazy thing is New Jersey and Pennsylvania are some of the wettest places in the country right now.

We were fortunate with parts of the area coming off the wettest July 2023 to August 2024 with over 100” in spots before the dry pattern began in late August. So while the drought monitor has been increasing the top layer and vegetation dryness in recent updates, the groundwater and surface reservoir supply is still in very good condition. It was probably the first time in U.S. history that a location like Suffolk County had a 12.00+ rainfall event in late August followed by such a 50 day dry stretch. Not sure any other parts of the U.S. experienced a short term deluge like that with so little rainfall in the following months.

 

[Dan76]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

https://x.com/Riddle_Lincoln/status/1845947251220160642?t=psSg2yiLOd1T-YV7THmdWw&s=19

[ecovers94]

any chance of any rain whatsoever in any foreseeable future?

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, ecovers94 said:

any chance of any rain whatsoever in any foreseeable future?

Not even a drop

[MANDA]

45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not even a drop

Not that anyone puts any credence in a 378 hour GFS prog but just to see something that dry especially at this time of year is quite impressive.

[EWR757]

Light rainshower in Bridgewater, NJ this afternoon.  

[Brian5671]

Nature balancing out the previous wet year.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will again top out mainly in the lower to middle 50s tomorrow and then the upper 50s on Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. A warming trend will likely develop during the weekend. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern forecast to develop, the above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation into at least the fourth week of the month. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -3.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.045 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal).

 

[psv88]

59 today. Fall

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 86 (1956)
NYC: 84 (1956)
LGA: 83 (2021)
JFK: 82 (1975)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1937)
NYC: 32 (1876)
LGA: 39 (2009)
JFK: 37 (1999)

Historical:

1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 

1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history. 

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[Allsnow]

I don’t want to hear anymore about East coast active hurricane seasons or active pac jet…

 

drought conditions continue