bluewave Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Phl might break the record Yeah, the GFS came in over 591 DM with the ridge this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the GFS came in over 591 DM with the ridge this weekend. The crazy thing is New Jersey and Pennsylvania are some of the wettest places in the country right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 30 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The crazy thing is New Jersey and Pennsylvania are some of the wettest places in the country right now. We were fortunate with parts of the area coming off the wettest July 2023 to August 2024 with over 100” in spots before the dry pattern began in late August. So while the drought monitor has been increasing the top layer and vegetation dryness in recent updates, the groundwater and surface reservoir supply is still in very good condition. It was probably the first time in U.S. history that a location like Suffolk County had a 12.00+ rainfall event in late August followed by such a 50 day dry stretch. Not sure any other parts of the U.S. experienced a short term deluge like that with so little rainfall in the following months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: https://x.com/Riddle_Lincoln/status/1845947251220160642?t=psSg2yiLOd1T-YV7THmdWw&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecovers94 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 any chance of any rain whatsoever in any foreseeable future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 4 minutes ago, ecovers94 said: any chance of any rain whatsoever in any foreseeable future? Not even a drop 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Not even a drop Not that anyone puts any credence in a 378 hour GFS prog but just to see something that dry especially at this time of year is quite impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Light rainshower in Bridgewater, NJ this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Nature balancing out the previous wet year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 Temperatures will again top out mainly in the lower to middle 50s tomorrow and then the upper 50s on Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. A warming trend will likely develop during the weekend. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern forecast to develop, the above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation into at least the fourth week of the month. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was -3.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.045 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.0° (1.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 15 Share Posted October 15 59 today. Fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Records: Highs: EWR: 86 (1956) NYC: 84 (1956) LGA: 83 (2021) JFK: 82 (1975) Lows: EWR: 32 (1937) NYC: 32 (1876) LGA: 39 (2009) JFK: 37 (1999) Historical: 1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history. 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 I don’t want to hear anymore about East coast active hurricane seasons or active pac jet… drought conditions continue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 6 hours ago, Allsnow said: I don’t want to hear anymore about East coast active hurricane seasons or active pac jet… drought conditions continue good. Something different to talk about it’s like living in Salt Lake. Enjoy the cool dry weather and this weekend the warm dry weather. if this ever turns into a drought couldn’t happen at a better time of the year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 10 hours ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 86 (1956) NYC: 84 (1956) LGA: 83 (2021) JFK: 82 (1975) Lows: EWR: 32 (1937) NYC: 32 (1876) LGA: 39 (2009) JFK: 37 (1999) Historical: 1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954: By 11 pm on the 15th, Hurricane Hazel had reached and crossed the waters of Lake Ontario, still sporting sustained winds as high as 60 mph. Hazel took direct aim at the heart of Toronto as it roared past at 49 mph. Toronto saw heavy rainfall before Hurricane Hazel on the 14th. The previous storm, in combination with the hurricane, resulted in significant flooding. 1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1984: The Monday Night Football game in Denver, Colorado, was played in a raging blizzard. 15 inches of snow fell with up to 34 inches reported in the nearby mountains. The Air Force Academy canceled classes for the first time in its' recorded history. 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) The highest wind speed recorded in NYC was from Hazel, even though the storm was well west of the area. Battery Park recorded 113mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Down to 36 this AM. Moon was unreal around 4-5am today! Also snapped a nice pic of Orion, always been my favorite constellation since childhood. (Sorry, came out quite a bit more compressed uploaded than on my phone) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 35 here; a few 30 readings in the valley low spots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 14 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Nature balancing out the previous wet year. Going from one extreme to the next has become common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 41 this morning. Thought we would drop lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 17 minutes ago, psv88 said: 41 this morning. Thought we would drop lower Guess there was too much of a breeze to radiate more. Westhampton got down to 28 where it calmed down for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Enjoying the clear skies for sure. hopefully it rains in November though. The trees…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 35, frost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 3 hours ago, lee59 said: The highest wind speed recorded in NYC was from Hazel, even though the storm was well west of the area. Battery Park recorded 113mph. That gust has always been suspect to me. Granted it was in the perfect location to maximize exposure and wind funneling through the harbor on a south east wind. I don’t think it’s representative of what the rest of the city experienced or that storm would have produced prolific tree damage above and beyond any other storm, which from same basic research it did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 4 hours ago, the_other_guy said: good. Something different to talk about it’s like living in Salt Lake. Enjoy the cool dry weather and this weekend the warm dry weather. if this ever turns into a drought couldn’t happen at a better time of the year Check back in December to see the effects of the Pacific Jet. It is relentless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 What are the analogs of a dry autumn and la nina winter in the northeast? I bet they're not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Some min temperatures: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 0z runs through day 10 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 52 / 36 low of 39 a bit warmer than expected and other nights. Dry continues. Cool through Thu. Warming Fri and much warmer Sat - Wed next week, Peak warmth Sun - Mon where 80s are possible in the warmer spots, recent dryness will outperform guidance on the high / low. Overall dry / warmer than normal through the 30th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 Dry as can be 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 16 Share Posted October 16 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: 0z runs through day 10 I'm sure it will lose it next run but 6z gfs has rain next Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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