October 2024

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has no measurable precipitation for it’s entire run last night for the area 

 

 

I don’t think I have had a drop of rain in my area since the month started 

Going to be tough to get much rain here with the models advertising a near record 590 dm ridge for next weekend.

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Going to be tough to get much rain here with the models advertising a near record 590 dm ridge for next weekend.

This would be very bad had it been summer

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This would be very bad had it been summer

Yeah it’s bad enough now, luckily most plants are just going to go straight into hibernation. Had it been summer they would have just died. In the 10 years I have been in charge of horticulture for Columbia/Barnard this is the driest stretch I have seen. Usually it’s a couple weeks this time it’s been months. 

[the_other_guy]

I think your 10 year run started as our local climate started to show a noticeable change to warmer and more moist. Certainly increased humidity and subsequent higher night time lows.

 

but the consistent over precipitation, breaking annual norms and the monthly big rainfalls just arent historically normal

[jm1220]

Thankfully the summer IMBY was wet enough but not excessively like just east of here. Not a drop yesterday, was a very nice day. But it’s really needed. Much of the country is developing drought conditions since there aren’t any large scale storms around outside the tropics. 

[winterwarlock]

a few cool days, a likely first frost but then indian summer and could we hit 80 next week for legit beach day on Sunday?

[SACRUS]

 

56 / 50 front moving through and its been dry south of the NJ/NY border.  Coolest of the season Tue - Thu, first frosts  inland, perhaps freezes in NW sections, and upper 30s metro.  Dryness will lead to highs above forecast and radiational cooling and recent dryness will see lows beat foreceast.  Warm up Fri and the coming weekend to above normal, back to the 70s and better in the warmer spots.  The dry period continues and an overall warmer into the followinng week and beyond.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Warmer look / dry continues into next week 

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 85 (1975)
NYC: 84 (1920)
LGA: 82 (1975)
JFK: 82 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1932)
NYC: 37 (1988)
LGA: 40 (1993)
JFK: 37 (1993)

Historical:

1909: An F3 tornado struck Pittsburg Landing and Stantonville, TN killing 23 people and injuring 80 others.

1941: America's first television weather forecast was broadcast on New York's WNBT (later WNBC). There weren’t many televisions at that time, so viewers were limited to perhaps a few hundred people. The weathercast consisted of a sponsor's message followed by a text screen containing the next day's forecast.

1957 - Floodwaters roared through a migrant labor camp near the town of Picacho AZ flooding fifty cabins and a dozen nearby homes. 250 migrant workers lost their shelters. The month was one of the wettest Octobers in Arizona weather history. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - Heavy rains hit the coastal areas of southeastern Florida. In a 24 hour period rains of twenty inches were reported from Deerfield Beach to Fort Lauderdale, with 25.28 inches on the Fort Lauderdale Bahia-Mar Yacht Basin. Flooding that resulted caused considerable damage to roads and streets. The rains inundated numerous newly planted vegetable fields, and some residences. Ten miles away just 4.51 inches of rain was reported. (14th- 15th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1981 - Four days of heavy rain across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma came to an end. The heaviest rains fell in a band from southwest of Abilene TX to McAlester OK, with up to 26 inches reported north of Gainesville, in north central Texas. The heavy rains were the result of decaying Hurricane Norma, which also spawned thirteen tornadoes across the region. Seven deaths were attributed to the flooding. (Storm Data)

1984 - Dense fog contributed to a 118 vehicle accident on I-94, just south of Milwaukee WI. It was the seventh day of an eight day stretch of dense fog. At the time of the accident the visibility was reportedly close to zero. (Storm Data)

1987 - Sixteen cities, mostly in the Appalachain Region, reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 43 degrees at Lake Charles LA, 35 degrees at Augusta GA, and 27 degrees at Asheville NC. Gale force winds buffeted the Carolina coast. Light snow fell across parts of Wyoming, Colorado, and western South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Forty cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Elkins WV was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of 18 degrees above zero. Thunderstorms in Arizona drenched Phoenix with nine inches of rain in nine hours, the fifth highest total for any given day in ninety-two years of records. Carefree AZ was soaked with two inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over Michigan during the morning, and over New York State and Connecticut during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms spawned two tornadoes, and there were ninety reports of large hail or damaging winds, including seventy reports of damaging winds in New York State. A tornado at McDonough NY killed one person and injured three other people. Strong thunderstorm winds gusted to 105 mph at Somerset. Temperatures warmed into the 80s and lower 90s over much of the nation east of the Rockies, with eleven cities reporting record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 81 degrees at Beckley WV and Bluefield WV equalled October records. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

[MANDA]

This cool / chilly weather is great.  The dryness is getting beyond annoying. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Thankfully the summer IMBY was wet enough but not excessively like just east of here. Not a drop yesterday, was a very nice day. But it’s really needed. Much of the country is developing drought conditions since there aren’t any large scale storms around outside the tropics. 

If this dry pattern continues through November, then it would be the first time that Long Island had a driest season since 2001-2002. The driest seasons at ISP were the fall of 1965, winter 2001-2002, spring 1995, and summer 1966. Even if ISP can increase the rainfall enough in November, it could still finish close to 2001 which was the 2nd driest fall on record. 
 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Sep through Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024	0.34	48
2	1965	3.31	0
3	2001	4.02	0
4	2013	4.86	0
5	1973	5.38	0
6	1998	5.96	0
7	1982	6.34	0
8	2007	6.50	0
9	1967	6.56	0
10	1994	7.42	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2001-2002	5.38	0
2	1979-1980	5.51	0
3	1984-1985	5.67	0
4	1976-1977	6.04	0
5	1966-1967	6.58	0
6	2011-2012	6.86	0
-	1980-1981	6.86	0
7	1985-1986	7.47	0
8	1963-1964	7.94	2
9	2003-2004	8.04	0
10	1999-2000	8.05	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1995	6.00	0
2	1965	6.08	2
3	1986	6.49	0
4	1976	6.85	0
5	1981	6.95	0
6	2015	7.15	0
7	2013	7.22	0
8	1969	8.24	0
9	1985	8.30	0
10	1992	8.45	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966	3.67	0
2	2005	3.74	0
3	1988	4.52	0
4	2022	4.75	0
5	1993	4.91	0
6	1964	5.10	0
7	2016	5.25	0
8	1974	6.13	0
9	1995	6.76	0
10	2015	7.27	0

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has no measurable precipitation for it’s entire run last night for the area 

 

 

I don’t think I have had a drop of rain in my area since the month started 

And we really had only 1 decent rain event in September. This is turning into a bad drought. Very frustrating. 

With the chilly weather this week I don't think low temps will get any lower than mid 30s here and then the big long term warmup, so the growing season will continue for a long time. Will just have to keep watering and watering. 

[winterwx21]

22 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow 71 here

Starting to think you're right about October ending up well above normal. Looks like a VERY warm pattern after the cool weather this week. Some mid to upper 70s ahead. 

[Stormlover74]

21 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Starting to think you're right about October ending up well above normal. Looks like a VERY warm pattern after the cool weather this week. Some mid to upper 70s ahead. 

Yeah this week will shave off some of the positive departure but then we may be off to the races for a week+

[forkyfork]

nice dry dusty wind today

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Starting to think you're right about October ending up well above normal. Looks like a VERY warm pattern after the cool weather this week. Some mid to upper 70s ahead. 

And this week is really only 3 cooler days.  Friday might hit 70.  If we just had some more rain mixed in to break things up, this would be an awesome fall.  Otherwise these sunny mild days and crisp mornings are outstanding.

[the_other_guy]

hmmmm…that is a first

[SACRUS]

 

Touched 70 now 67 / 34

[Dark Star]

38 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

hmmmm…that is a first

Happened to me at a vacation house...

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, JerseyWx said:

And this week is really only 3 cooler days.  Friday might hit 70.  If we just had some more rain mixed in to break things up, this would be an awesome fall.  Otherwise these sunny mild days and crisp mornings are outstanding.

The patented three day cold shot that has become a normal during the winter. Starting right on cue

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

hmmmm…that is a first

Can you communicate with Voyager 1 with that thing?

 

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The patented three day cold shot that has become a normal during the winter. Starting right on cue

Yep dry and cold for 3 days then back to the warmth

[Stormlover74]

Gusting past 40 now

[FPizz]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gusting past 40 now

Its doing a decent job getting some of those leaves down.  temp only got 1 degree warmer than forecast here.

[bluewave]

Stronger winds today than model forecasts since the high temps beating guidance again resulted in steeper low level lapse rates.

[forkyfork]

ewr just gusted to 50

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

[Dark Star]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Going to be tough to get much rain here with the models advertising a near record 590 dm ridge for next weekend.

Looks a bit extreme?

[donsutherland1]

The coolest air so far this season is now pouring into the region on a gusty breeze. Temperatures will top out mainly in the lower to middle 50s tomorrow and Wednesday and then the upper 50s on Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. A warming trend could develop during the weekend.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions show very little precipitation into at least the fourth week of the month. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +3.35 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.559 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8° (0.9° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Looks a bit extreme?

These big ridges over the Northeast have become the new normal as  the GFS and Euro are both at least 590 dm.

 

[lee59]

Down 7 degrees in the past hour.