October 2024

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

A few games of old school POst season 

 

Mets  Game 3 : Wed Oct 16 game time looks to be in the mid 40s - dropping - Citifield
Yanks Game 3 : Thu Oct 17 game time looks 40s to upper 40s , light rain - CLE

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (1954)
NYC: 87 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1995)
JFK: 79 (1995)


Lows;

EWR: 34 (2012)
NYC: 34 (1875)
LGA:  39 (1988)
JFK: 37 (2012)

Historical:

 

1846 - A great hurricane tracked across Cuba, Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and Pennsylvania. The hurricane inflicted major damage along its entire path, which was similar to the path of Hurricane Hazel 108 years later. The hurricane caused great damage at Key West FL, and at Philadelphia PA it was the most destructive storm in thirty years. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1983: Severe weather in Falls Church, VA, produced 2-3 tornadoes and caused $1 million in damages.

1986 - Four tornadoes struck southeastern Virginia late in the night causing three million dollars damage. Tornadoes at Falls Church VA caused a million dollars damage. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1987 - Fifteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 34 degrees at Meridian MS, 28 degrees at Paducah KY, and 26 degrees at Beckley WV. Another surge of arctic air entered the north central U.S. bringing snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - A total of forty-three cities in the eastern U.S. and the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV and Marquette MI where the mercury dipped to 18 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Sixteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 80s and low 90s from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast. Evansville IND and North Platte NE reported record highs of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

 

[SACRUS]

 

7 Day 

 

[bluewave]

Cooler week 1 followed by warmer week 2 with the dry pattern continuing.

 

October 14-21

 

Oct 21-28

 

 

[MANDA]

That high latitude block during all of September really meant business.

Looks like another week without meaningful rainfall.  The chilly incoming air mass will be nice though.

Fall foliage around my area is really starting to peak now.  Nicest color I think I've seen in several years.

 

[SACRUS]

 

The old familiar map of the last 7 weeks (aside from the week of clouds, mist)

 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

A few games of old school POst season 

 

Mets  Game 3 : Wed Oct 16 game time looks to be in the mid 40s - dropping - Citifield
Yanks Game 3 : Thu Oct 17 game time looks 40s to upper 40s , light rain - CLE

I’ll be at the game Wednesday. Winter coat time 

[psv88]

Incredible day today again. Wash rinse repeat 

[snywx]

Currently 49° w/ some light rain incoming 

[IrishRob17]

51 minutes ago, snywx said:

Currently 49° w/ some light rain incoming 

47 and light rain, .01 thru the tipper. Just a miserable day. 

[Stormlover74]

Wow 71 here

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow 71 here

Enjoy, down to 46 now. 

[snywx]

45 and light rain here.. miserable day 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, snywx said:

45 and light rain here.. miserable day 

48 here and miserable compared to yesterday. Light rain currently.

[Poker2015]

40s up north?? It's 77 and beautiful out here

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

In NE PA, rollling thunder and 43 degrees. At least they are getting some drought relief. All the creeks and streams were down to basically a trickle. 

[psv88]

72 and beautiful on the island. Crazy it’s so cold just north 

[doncat]

72 high here, cold to the north, 80's to the south.

[doncat]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

The old familiar map of the last 7 weeks (aside from the week of clouds, mist)

 

The drought is starting to impress me.

[steve392]

So much for some rain... :/

[Cyg]

Out cycling right now. It's still like 70 out here

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, doncat said:

The drought is starting to impress me.

While we still have big rainfall surplus since July 2023, several stations have had their driest start to fall.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-12	0.89	0
2	1941-10-12	1.24	0
3	1931-10-12	1.58	0
4	1953-10-12	1.78	0
5	2013-10-12	1.92	0
-	1970-10-12	1.92	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-12	0.83	0
2	2009-10-12	1.32	0
3	1986-10-12	1.73	0
4	1964-10-12	1.85	0
5	1970-10-12	1.90	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-12	0.34	0
2	1982-10-12	1.28	0
3	2019-10-12	1.38	0
4	1997-10-12	1.42	0
5	1986-10-12	1.63	0

[doncat]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we still have big rainfall surplus since July 2023, several stations have had their driest start to fall.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-12	0.89	0
2	1941-10-12	1.24	0
3	1931-10-12	1.58	0
4	1953-10-12	1.78	0
5	2013-10-12	1.92	0
-	1970-10-12	1.92	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-12	0.83	0
2	2009-10-12	1.32	0
3	1986-10-12	1.73	0
4	1964-10-12	1.85	0
5	1970-10-12	1.90	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2024-10-12	0.34	0
2	1982-10-12	1.28	0
3	2019-10-12	1.38	0
4	1997-10-12	1.42	0
5	1986-10-12	1.63	0

Yeah 1.26" here since 9/1.  The looking ahead at the continued dryness is making it more impressive.

[IrishRob17]

31 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah 1.26" here since 9/1.  The looking ahead at the continued dryness is making it more impressive.

1.28” here over the same period, thanks to the .07” today. Agreed that it’s becoming a noticeable dry stretch. 

[EWR757]

Amazing difference in weather from north to south today across the region.  I was paddleboarding at a lake in NJ near I-80 today while it was raining and cold (temperature in the 40s) in Orange County, New York.

 

 

[Brian5671]

Had a brief downpour here around 6:30-enough to settle the dust

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will arrive tonight and readings tomorrow will reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Even cooler air will arrive for Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will top out mainly in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday and then the upper 50s on Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. A potential warming trend could develop during the following weekend.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +3.99 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.128 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.5° (0.6° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

PHL: 84
TTN: 80
ACY: 80
BLM: 77
EWR: 74
New Brnswck: 74
JFK: 73
TEB: 71
ISP: 70
NYC: 69
LGA: 68

[Allsnow]

Euro has no measurable precipitation for it’s entire run last night for the area 

 

 

I don’t think I have had a drop of rain in my area since the month started