October 2024

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

It is what it is.  Last fall it rained almost every single weekend.  Businesses took a big hit.  Making up for it this year, places are packed every weekend.

And it seems like we're going to have a good foliage season....some places already are.  I figured the dry weather would've killed our chances at that

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1954)
NYC: 86 (1954)
LGA: 86 (1954)
JFK: 83 (1969)


Lows:

EWR: 35 (1996)
NYC: 35 (1876)
LGA: 41 (1964)
JFK: 38 (1996)



Historical: 

 

1836 - A third early season storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Bridgewater NY received 18 inches, a foot of snow fell at Madison NY, and for the third time all the mountains of the northeastern U.S. were whitened. (David Ludlum)

1918 - Forest fires ravaged parts of Minnesota from the Duluth area northeastward, claiming the lives of 600 persons. Smoke with a smell of burnt wood spread to Albany NY and Washington D.C. in 24 hours. Smoke was noted at Charleston SC on the 14th, and by the 15th was reported in northeastern Texas. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1918: On October 10, 1918, two men working near a railroad siding northwest of Cloquet, Minnesota, saw a passenger train pass by the siding, and soon after, that discovered a fire burning through grass and piles of wood. The fire could not be contained, and by October 12, fires had spread through northern Minnesota. At least 450 lives were lost, and 52,000 people were injured or displaced, 38 communities were destroyed, 250,000 acres were burned.

1962 - The "Columbus Day Big Blow" occurred in the Pacific Northwest. It was probably the most damaging windstorm of record west of the Cascade Mountains. Winds reached hurricane force, with gusts above 100 mph. More than 3.5 billion board feet of timber were blown down, and communications were severely disrupted due to downed power lines. The storm claimed 48 lives, and caused 210 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1962: The Columbus Day Storm of 1962 was a Pacific Northwest windstorm that struck the West Coast of Canada and the Pacific Northwest Coast of the United States. It is considered the benchmark of extratropical wind storms. The storm ranks among the most intense to strike the region since at least 1948, likely since the January 9, 1880 "Great Gale" and snowstorm. Click HERE for more information from the University of Washington.

 

1979: The lowest barometric pressure ever recorded occurs in the center of Typhoon Tip on this day. A fly reconnaissance mission recorded the low pressure of 870 hPa or 25.69 inHg. Typhoon Tip was the most extensive tropical cyclone on record with a wind diameter of 1380 miles at its peak.

1987 - Floyd, the only hurricane to make landfall the entire season, moved across the Florida Keys. Floyd produced wind gusts to 59 mph at Duck Key, and up to nine inches of rain in southern Florida. Sixteen cities in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Mississippi Valley reported record low temperatures for the date. Record lows included 27 degrees at Paducah KY, and 24 degrees at Rockford IL and Springfield IL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Twenty cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including International Falls MN with a reading of 17 degrees. The town of Embarass MN reported a morning low of 8 degrees. Snow showers in the northeastern U.S. produced five inches at Corry PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Temperatures again warmed into the 80s in the Central Plains Region and the Middle Mississippi Valley, with 90s in the south central U.S. Six cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Fort Smith AR with a reading of 92 degrees. Strong winds along a cold front crossing the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley gusted to 61 mph at Johnstown PA. (The National Weather Summary)

 

[SnoSki14]

MJO following the Nina playbook. Looks like MJO 7 in November which will lead to another cooler than usual November. 

[Stormlover74]

Upton is quite bullish for tomorrow night. 70% chance of rain. Most models have little to nothing 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Had a nice little inversion up here earlier, I was 47 at 385’ while Legoland seven miles to my SW at approx 650’ was at 61. 

Yeah, I get some nice radiational cooling inversions here just to the east of KHVN. It’s a change from living on the South Shore of LI where it was tough to get any radiational cooling. It’s neat how quickly the temperature falls off once the sun sets under good radiational cooling conditions. 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Upton is quite bullish for tomorrow night. 70% chance of rain. Most models have little to nothing 

That will be dropped down to 30-40% by the 4pm package in my opinion...same pattern all fall

[JerseyWx]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And it seems like we're going to have a good foliage season....some places already are.  I figured the dry weather would've killed our chances at that

Yeah it's looking decent so far, I think these bright sunny days and seasonal nights have helped out.  Some trees were hit too hard by the dryness though, my Dogwoods were just okay color before they're already dropping crispy leaves.

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 76 - temps continue to overperform on bright sunny days and dryness.

[bluewave]

My dew point dropped 10° in a hour. Areas just to my north are in the upper 20s. So a continuation of the very dry theme with RH near only 20%.

Meriden        SUNNY     74  29  19 NW18G31   29.88R
New Haven      SUNNY     75  37  25 N17G30    29.88S

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmmk

[uofmiami]

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Up to 76 - temps continue to overperform on bright sunny days and dryness.

 NBM was 76 & GFS 78 today for EWR.

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah it's looking decent so far, I think these bright sunny days and seasonal nights have helped out.  Some trees were hit too hard by the dryness though, my Dogwoods were just okay color before they're already dropping crispy leaves.

Yeah driving down the parkway it's alot of brown oaks 

[Stormlover74]

On 10/10/2024 at 6:55 PM, winterwarlock said:

I know Saturday is mid 70s but im going to Rutgers football  game

Do we have a shot at Sunday being a beach day similar to last Saturday which was 73-74 at the shore. As long as its not an east win thats good enough for me

 

[steve392]

Some incredible color starting to pop on trees.  Not even throughout the canopy mostly tops of trees. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another mild day with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Monday will turn cooler and then Tuesday through Thursday will be noticeably cooler days. Temperatures will top out mainly in the lower to middle 50s on Tuesday and Wednesday and then the upper 50s on Thursday. Lows will fall into the lower 40s in New York City and 30s outside the City where frost is likely. A potential warming trend could develop during the following weekend.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal for at least the next 10-14 days. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +5.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.492 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal).

 

[uofmiami]

3 hours ago, uofmiami said:

 NBM was 76 & GFS 78 today for EWR.

GFS nailed the high FWIW.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs has rain! 

 

11 days from now

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs has rain! 

 

11 days from now

Good deal, most of my leaves will be down by then. These dry leaves make for much easier clean up. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:


ACY: 79
PHL: 79
New Brnswck: 78
JFK: 78
EWR: 78
BLM: 77
TEB: 76
ISP: 76
TTN: 76
LGA: 74
NYC: 74

[psv88]

Beautiful 75 today. 

[Allsnow]

11 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs has rain! 

 

11 days from now

Euro has nothing for the entire run 

[bluewave]

A rare October 40° temperature gradient today with 80° in NJ and closer to 40° in NY State.

 

[Brian5671]

Looks bleak for any rain south of say I-84 tonight

[Allsnow]

Only 56 currently 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Here comes the cold November @bluewave

 

 

[IrishRob17]

Just enough drizzle to make the ground/leaves wet, not enough to register on the Davis LOL

[ForestHillWx]

23 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

It is what it is.  Last fall it rained almost every single weekend.  Businesses took a big hit.  Making up for it this year, places are packed every weekend.

Packed is an understatement. We avoid the Chester area farms on weekends. Instead took an early ride up to Ochs in Warwick; a bit later in the season than normal but still got some great apples and had a perfect afternoon.

Warwick Winery was a no-go; turned around in a line of traffic. On the way home passed by Heaven Hill Farm in Vernon which looked like a Woodstock event.

 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Stormlover74]

26 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Packed is an understatement. We avoid the Chester area farms on weekends. Instead took an early ride up to Ochs in Warwick; a bit later in the season than normal but still got some great apples and had a perfect afternoon.

Warwick Winery was a no-go; turned around in a line of traffic. On the way home passed by Heaven Hill Farm in Vernon which looked like a Woodstock event.

 

 

I went to the beach expecting it to be quiet figuring everyone would be doing fall stuff. Nope. Crowded as well. Actually it wasn't bad but odd to see people in the water in October 

[Stormlover74]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has nothing for the entire run 

Gfs too. Maybe it will return on future runs

[SACRUS]

 

65 / 45 some clouds (just north of here).  Enough sun matches yesterday upper 70s / near 80, clouds keep areas in the upper 60s / low 70s - rain just north of the NJ/NY border.   Cooler 10/15 - 10/17, warmer beyond there into next weekend.  Dry looks to continue into the lats half of the month, with an overall ridging look into the east and above normal temps.