October 2024

[viking70]

Saw an amazing display in Ossining last night.  This is over our house. 

Northern Light NY.HEIC

[psv88]

39 this morning. Heat cranking 

[Stormlover74]

10 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Really something that we're probably looking at a 3rd month in a row with perfectly normal temps. We've gotten so used to way above normal temps with climate change. If only this could continue into winter, but I doubt it. 

I think October is going to be solidly above normal all said and done especially if we warm up late month. 

[JerseyWx]

40 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think October is going to be solidly above normal all said and done especially if we warm up late month. 

Depends how much we warm up.  Next week looks chilly for highs.

[ForestHillWx]

Finally caved and turned on the heat. House internal dropped to 58 with windows closed last night. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

We are trending towards a chillier and drier than normal pattern. It's been a very long time since we've had a colder and drier than normal winter pattern. The odds would say we're due for one. But the large scale pattern patterns do suggest that a ridge in the east builds just as winter would be establishing itself here.

WX/PT

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think October is going to be solidly above normal all said and done especially if we warm up late month. 

Next week looks well below normal, but yeah it does look like a pretty good warmup for next weekend into the week of October 21st. How strong that warmup is and how long it lasts will determine whether we have a near normal month or solidly above. We'll have to see if we get another cool shot near the end of the month. Right now Don Sutherland's estimate is that the month will be only a half degree above normal. 

[winterwx21]

Had a low temp of 38 here this morning. Went bow hunting yesterday and enjoyed being out in the cool crisp weather. Looking forward to more of that type of weather next week. We could have a few days in which it only makes it to upper 50s for highs next week. 

[Nibor]

These are from the second round of the aurora last night taken from Edgewater NJ looking up the Hudson at the GWB. 
 

[bluewave]

The 91-20 means have gotten so warm that a small +0.6 SEP departure at Newark still ranks within the top 20 warmest monthly average temperatures. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1961	74.5	0
2	2005	73.5	0
3	2015	73.4	0
4	2021	72.5	0
5	2016	71.8	0
-	1971	71.8	0
6	2010	71.6	0
7	1959	71.5	0
8	2018	71.4	0
9	2023	71.2	0
-	2011	71.2	0
10	1973	71.0	0
-	1931	71.0	0
11	2017	70.9	0
12	2019	70.8	0
-	1980	70.8	0
13	1968	70.7	0
14	1983	70.6	0
-	1970	70.6	0
15	2002	70.5	0
16	1998	70.3	0
17	1985	70.2	0
18	2007	70.1	0
19	1989	69.9	0
20	2024	69.8	0
-	2014	69.8	0
-	1972	69.8	0

 

[doncat]

That's a quiet country...

[steve392]

42 degrees when I got up to let puppy out.  Heat came on out of nowhere.  Hasn't been touched since last spring lol

[MJO812]

Snow for far interior of NY and New England on gfs

[tempestatis014]

Finally got around to my photos from last night. Had 3 bursts in the light show. First was as the sun set from 6:45-7:45. Second was around 10:15. Third was around 2:00 AM.



This was my best shot, taken on my phone. Unfortunately can't upload the full size so this is compressed quite a lot. The aurora was so bright that it looks exactly like the photo. Didn't even use night mode. Could easily see the green on the horizon.

[TJW014]

1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said:

Finally got around to my photos from last night. Had 3 bursts in the light show. First was as the sun set from 6:45-7:45. Second was around 10:15. Third was around 2:00 AM.



This was my best shot, taken on my phone. Unfortunately can't upload the full size so this is compressed quite a lot. The aurora was so bright that it looks exactly like the photo. Didn't even use night mode. Could easily see the green on the horizon.

This is me btw. Old Tapatalk login that I can't get out of. Would appreciate if a mod can delete that account for me if possible

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will turn briefly milder with widespread readings in the lower 70s before cooler air returns Sunday or Monday. Another particularly strong cold shot is likely near mid-month before a potential warming trend develops.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +8.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.567 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 53% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.2° (0.3° above normal).

 

[guinness77]

Still haven’t put the heat on yet. I worked overnight and the car said 44 degrees at 6:15 this morning. House was down to 65. Looks like mid-50s tonight and a brief warmup should keep the heat off until next week where with daytime highs in the upper 50s should precipitate the heat finally coming on. 

[doncat]

11 days in , T of rain.

[SACRUS]

38 to 71 today now down to 59 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1949)
NYC: 85 (1949)
LGA: 86 (1955)
JFK: 80 (1960)


Lows:

EWR: 36 (1979)
NYC: 34 (1964)
LGA: 36 (1964)
JFK: 37 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1846: A major hurricane, possibly a Category 5, moved through the Caribbean Sea. This Great Havana Hurricane struck western Cuba on 10 October. It hit the Florida Keys on 11 October, destroying the old Key West Lighthouse and Fort Zachary Taylor.

1906: Games 1 and 2 of all Chicago World Series were played amid snow flurries. Snow would not happen again in a World Series until 1997. The high temperature for game 3 played on this day was 43 degrees.

1925 - Widespread early season snows fell in the northeastern U.S., with as much as two feet in New Hampshire and Vermont. The heavy snow blocked roads and cancelled football games. (David Ludlum)

1954 - A deluge of 6.72 inches of rain in 48 hours flooded the Chicago River, causing ten million dollars damage in the Chicago area. (9th-11th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - More than thirty cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the date, including Waterloo IA and Scottsbluff NE where the mercury dipped to 16 degrees. Tropical Storm Floyd brought heavy rain to southern Florida, moisture from Hurricane Ramon produced heavy rain in southern California, and heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New York State and Vermont. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, with snow and sleet reported in some areas. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the north central U.S. The mercury hit 84 degrees at Cutbank MT and Worland WY. The temperature at Gunnison CO soared from a morning low of 12 degrees to a high of 66 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Much of the nation enjoyed "Indian Summer" type weather. Nine cities in the central U.S. reported record highs for the date as temperatures warmed into the 80s and 90s. Record highs included 90 degrees at Grand Island NE and 97 degrees at Waco TX. Strong winds along a cold front crossing the Northern High Plains Region gusted to 80 mph at Ames Monument WY during the early morning. (The National Weather Summary)

[psv88]

70 today. Another nice weekend before we cool down again. 

[bluewave]

Euro really struggling lately as we saw with several of those Milton runs which were too far north. We are back to getting warm sectored on Sunday now. So the 80° highs should push further north in NJ. A continuation of the northern and eastern sections doing better on rainfall.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro really struggling lately as we saw with several of those Milton runs which were too far north. We are back to getting warm sectored on Sunday now. So the 80° highs should push further north in NJ. A continuation of the northern and eastern sections doing better on rainfall.

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Interesting to me, IMBY the new run got cooler by 5 degrees. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Interesting to me, IMBY the new run got cooler by 5 degrees. 

Yeah, a very sharp cutoff to the warmth somewhere near your area especially on the higher res guidance where the warm front stalls out.

[SACRUS]

 

55 / 43 off a low of 45.  Mid 70s today, perhaps some upper 70s in the warmer spots in NJ, same tomorrow some areas may touch 80, ehnced ny the dry.  Scattered showers, drizzle perhaps with the front passage later overnight sunday and monday but otherwise a dry front.  Coolest period of the season (since this past tue-thu)  comes 10/51 - 10/17, frost inland 30s to metro - wed the coolest day.  Cold one at Flushing / Citi field for Game 3.  Warmer by the 18/19 and through the rest of the month overall above normal.  Dry will continues at least through the next 7 days.

 

[Allsnow]

The lack of rain is a absolute joke at this point 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Dry through day 7 

 

[SACRUS]

Bit of a back and forth once to th end of next week then looking overall above normal, ridge shifting east, will any rain materialize later this month

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, a very sharp cutoff to the warmth somewhere near your area especially on the higher res guidance where the warm front stalls out.

Had a nice little inversion up here earlier, I was 47 at 385’ while Legoland seven miles to my SW at approx 650’ was at 61. 

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The lack of rain is a absolute joke at this point 

It is what it is.  Last fall it rained almost every single weekend.  Businesses took a big hit.  Making up for it this year, places are packed every weekend.