gravitylover Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Beautiful day I could do without the wind though. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 66 in Manalapan,nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Beautiful day I could do without the wind though. Made doing leaves hard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 with the wind this morning it looked like snow as leaves were coming down all around me probably will be one of the few times it snow all winter lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Leaves falling like crazy. Definitely past peak here after this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Leaves falling like crazy. Definitely past peak here after this weekend Very early this year due to drought 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 A short but sharp intrusion of cooler air is likely for tomorrow into Monday. Temperatures will top out in the middle 50s while lows outside New York City will generally fall into the 30s with lower 40s likely in Central Park. Afterward, it will warm up quickly early next week. The month could end with widespread temperatures well into the 70s. Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat is affecting Phoenix and Tucson. The heat will persist through tomorrow. Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 26 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has also been a trace. The prior record was 0.05", which was set in 1947. Today is Philadelphia's 28th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 2nd longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will very likely be tied tomorrow and broken on Monday. Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region. Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts: Allentown: October: 0.15", 1963 Monthly: 0.09", May 1964 Period of Record: January 1912-Present New York City: October: 0.14", 1963 Monthly: 0.02", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1869-Present Newark: October: 0.21", 1963 Monthly: 0.07", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1893-Present Philadelphia: October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963 Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963 Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent Trenton: October: 0.05", 1963 Monthly: 0.05", October 1963 Period of Record: September 1865-Present Wilmington, DE: October: 0.05", 1924 Monthly: 0.05", October 1924 Period of Record: January 1894-Present The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +13.02 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.135 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3° (2.4° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Localized temp inversion; 36 at my place, 28 down the hill. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 I finally have frost! This is the latest first frost I can remember here in the 28 years I've been here. It's weird though, all of the local stations stayed at or above 34°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Fell to 36 briefly here this morning. If sky stays clear tonight, I expect frost in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 With the dew points so low today, highs could beat guidance with low 60s possible in spots. This would result in lower RH values than forecast. So one of our driest days of the fall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 14 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Very early this year due to drought 33 this morning. Perfect, it's better than doing leaves in early December 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: With the dew points so low today, highs could beat guidance with low 60s possible in spots. This would result in lower RH values than forecast. So one of our driest days of the fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 19 minutes ago, FPizz said: 33 this morning. Perfect, it's better than doing leaves in early December We could at least pretend this is the old days with temps 5 degrees colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 48 / 33 off a low of 36. Coolest day / evening and next morning of the next 10 likely. Warming Tue - Fri, with upper 70s near / low 80s Wed and Thu. Front comes through Thu evening and may drop a trace itll be a race to midnight or /when if any of the falls spoils a calendar of dry. Overall dry continues with next east coast ridge building by the 2nd and into the 5th. Trough beyond the 6th could bring the more meaningful rain unless things dry up between the 6 - 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Trough / rain slowed a bit on the latest guidance now aimed for the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Ridge rebuilds 2-5 into the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Just now, SACRUS said: Trough / rain slowed a bit on the latest guidance now aimed for the 6th. still fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 54 minutes ago, bluewave said: This should piss some people off. Yes its the driest on record, how far do our records go back? People make it like time began 100 to 150 years ago. Is this normal, no but im certain it has happened before. Do I want rain, yes. Do I want a lot of snow in winter? HeLL Yes. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 5 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: This should piss some people off. Yes its the driest on record, how far do our records go back? People make it like time began 100 to 150 years ago. Is this normal, no but im certain it has happened before. Do I want rain, yes. Do I want a lot of snow in winter? HeLL Yes. How about when there is a storm and it is reported as a once in a 1000 year storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 23 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: This should piss some people off. Yes its the driest on record, how far do our records go back? People make it like time began 100 to 150 years ago. Is this normal, no but im certain it has happened before. Do I want rain, yes. Do I want a lot of snow in winter? HeLL Yes. I'm not sure what the problem is, I think the post aligns pretty well with your statement. One could say it's sensationalized a little bit but that's just twitter for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 3 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: This should piss some people off. Yes its the driest on record, how far do our records go back? People make it like time began 100 to 150 years ago. Is this normal, no but im certain it has happened before. Do I want rain, yes. Do I want a lot of snow in winter? HeLL Yes. The continuous daily records in NYC go back to the late 1800s. A recent study based on tree rings found the driest period of the last 500 years was around the 1600s. And the recent 30 year period with the reliable instrument records was the wettest in the last 500 years. So my guess is during that drought around the 1600s there were probably months like this. Since a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, the recent extreme rainfall events were to be expected and would have a much smaller chance of occurring in a much colder climate. As for temperatures, this recent period was the warmest since the end of the last ice age. But not nearly as warm as the prehistoric times when CO2 levels were actually higher than today. As we know CO2 can occur from natural sources like in the distant past. And we can cause the levels to change from emissions. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 36 this morning. Tonight we freeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 1 hour ago, lee59 said: How about when there is a storm and it is reported as a once in a 1000 year storm. So if its once in a 1000 years that means it happened before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: So if its once in a 1000 years that means it happened before. Wow. Never thought about it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: I finally have frost! This is the latest first frost I can remember here in the 28 years I've been here. It's weird though, all of the local stations stayed at or above 34°. Funny how that happens, but it occurs fairly frequently (frost when the thermometer never dips below 32 F) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 3 hours ago, the_other_guy said: still fantasy land With how things have been going since late August, would anyone actually be surprised if this modeled “rain event” for early November verifies as nothing more than some showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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