October 2024

[Brian5671]

Going to be a mega torch once that moves east.   80 for Halloween anyone?

[bluewave]

Those 850 mb temps should be near +20C early Tuesday for the 70° lows around Iowa. But they should modify quite a bit coming east. Looks similar to the other day when the warm spots went 80-85 in NJ. That should be good for more record high potential at around Halloween as the surface forecast highs have been beating forecasts with the record dry pattern. 
 

 

[495weatherguy]

38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Going to be a mega torch once that moves east.   80 for Halloween anyone?

Let’s hope!

[SACRUS]

 

49 / 36 of a low of 38. sunny, cooler the next 72 hours.   Upper mid 60s / near 70 Fri and Sat then coolest Sun / Mon with forst inland 0 50s day / 30s night.   Warmer Tue - Sat peaking Thu / Fri with more near / low 80s.  Overall warmer to open next month and dry continuing.  In the longer range deep front continues to be forecast around Nov 6, perhaps the chance for rain.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Semblance of the trough into the mid west by early nov pushing east towards the 5/6 otherwise Sunny and dry pushes into week 6.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 79 (2001)
NYC: 79 (1963)
LGA: 78 (2001)
JFK: 77 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1939)
NYC: 29 (1879)
LGA: 37 (1962)
JFK: 33 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1918: The Canadian steamship Princess Sophia carrying miners from the Yukon and Alaska becomes stranded on Vanderbilt Reef. A strong northerly gale hampers rescue attempts the day before. The ship sinks on this day, killing the 268 passengers and 75 crewmen on board. 

1921 - A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa, FL, causing several million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1921: A devastating category 3 hurricane struck near Tarpon Springs, Florida. The storm caused 8 fatalities and is the latest in the calendar year a category 3 hurricane or stronger made landfall in the US.

1975: GOES-1, which was launched on October 16th.

1977 - Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31 inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1981 - A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown, FL, in less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50 mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2017: The high temperatures in Denver, Colorado was 84 degrees. By the morning hours on the 27th, the temperature fell to 13 degrees, a 71-degree change.

[rclab]

58 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Going to be a mega torch once that moves east.   80 for Halloween anyone?

Good morning Brian. Apparently, as of now, Accu-Weather is in agreement. Stay well, as always …

 

[bluewave]

60°+ Octobers have become much more common in recent years. In the old days Octobers were closer to 55°. Julys used to average around 75° and now closer to 80°. Decembers at Newark used to be closer 35° and now 40°. So a 5° rise in the 10 year running means since the 1930s. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2021	64.4	0
2	2017	63.8	0
3	2007	63.5	0
4	1971	63.1	0
5	1990	62.4	0
6	2024	62.2	7
-	1984	62.2	0
7	2023	62.0	0
8	1949	61.6	0
9	1963	61.2	0
10	1995	61.0	0
-	1947	61.0	0
11	2019	60.4	0
-	1954	60.4	0
12	1973	60.3	0
13	1946	60.0	0

[Roger Smith]

By end of today, dry spell will rank t5 ...

Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ 

_01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 

_02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 

t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________

t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____

t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ 

t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ 

t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ 

t05 ___ 2024 ___ 26 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 25 ___

t09 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ 

t09 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________

t 11 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____

t 11 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ 

t 11 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________

t 11 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________

 

Note 9 of 14 listed are in fall (Sep-Nov).

Dry spells of 24+ days occur on an average every 11 years, longest span without one was 1885 to 1909 (25 years), second longest was 2002 to 2023 (22 years). Greatest frequency was 5 in 21 years (1922 to 1942) and 4 in 18 years (1963 to 1980). 

________x_____________x______xx________xxx__________x__x__x____x________x___x____________x__

..........1884.............1910........1922,24....1939,41,42......1963,68,73,80........1995..2001 ...........2024

June 1949 was also very dry, its lone .02" fall broke up an "extended" dry spell so it does not join list for 24+ days.

Five different 24-day dry spells were in progress Oct 4-6. 

 

[Stormlover74]

At least something's showing up inside 10 days

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will see temperatures rise to the lower and middle 60s. However, a short but sharp intrusion of cooler air is likely for Sunday into Monday. Afterward, it will warm up quickly early next week. The month could end with widespread temperatures well into the 70s.

Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat is affecting Phoenix and Tucson. The heat will persist through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 25 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has also been a trace. That ties the old record of a trace from 1886. Today is Philadelphia's 27th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (3rd longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be broken.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +19.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.006 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.3° (2.4° above normal).

 

[forkyfork]

halloween records:

ewr 82

lga 81

nyc 81

jfk 75

isp 73

bdr 75

hpn 73

[psv88]

65 today.

0.00

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

halloween records:

ewr 82

lga 81

nyc 81

jfk 75

isp 73

bdr 75

hpn 73

Will break many if not all

[Volcanic Winter]

This has been an interesting fall progression so far with some early chills leading to early leaf changes, before flipping back to the endless summer pattern that’s so common anymore. 

I’m really curious if we can manage a cold Dec (cool?) even if the whole of DJF is mild to warm. 

If talking preferences I tend to prefer a front loaded winter anyway. Nothing beats a seasonal holiday season. 

[bluewave]

Sunday looks like the lowest afternoon dew points of the season with some spots possibly approaching 10° or lower.
 

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This has been an interesting fall progression so far with some early chills leading to early leaf changes, before flipping back to the endless summer pattern that’s so common anymore. 

I’m really curious if we can manage a cold Dec (cool?) even if the whole of DJF is mild to warm. 

If talking preferences I tend to prefer a front loaded winter anyway. Nothing beats a seasonal holiday season. 

We should start a petition to move the holidays further into the season so there's a better shot at it being more wintry.

[Brian5671]

State of Emergency for CT due to fires/dryness

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

Looks like some rain chances the week of the 11/4 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

We should start a petition to move the holidays further into the season so there's a better shot at it being more wintry.

Good morning Gravity. Some consider Candlemas as the holiday. February 2nd would fit well with your suggestion. Stay well, as always ……

[snowman19]

33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

We have left the record dry fall of 2001 in the dust 

[the_other_guy]

On 10/25/2024 at 8:34 AM, Brian5671 said:

Going to be a mega torch once that moves east.   80 for Halloween anyone?

Two day mega torch like our patented cold snap!

[qg_omega]

These dry frontal passages are wild

[SACRUS]

 

62 / 42 off a not as low as expected 40.   Mid 60s to 70 today in the warm spots.  Coo Sun / Mon (frost inland).  Tue - Sat warm up, peaking Wed and Thu with near / low 80s.  Cools back down next weekend near normal.  Dry continues through the open of Nov.  GFS has showers/light rain potential as soon as the 3rd wiht other guidance pushing the front through 5/7 period as tough builds in.  Beyond there ridging into the east and overall warmer towards the 8th.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Now beyond Oct

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 82 (2023) 
NYC: 78 (1964)
LGA: 80 (2023)
JFK: 78 (1971)

 

Lows: 

EWR: 31 (1952)
NYC: 30 (1879)
LGA: 34 (1962)
JFK: 32 (1962)

Historical:

 

1859 - New York City had their earliest substantial snow of record as four inches blanketed the city. (David Ludlum)

1865: A hurricane sank the steamship USS Mobile off the Georgia coast. The wreck, laden with 20,000 gold coins, was found in 2003.

1919 - The temperature at Bismarck, ND, plunged to ten degrees below zero, the earliest subzero reading of record for the city, and a record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)

1926 - Barrow, AK, received a record fifteen inches of snow, and also established a 24 hour precipitation record of 1.00 inch which lasted until the 21st of July in 1987. (The Weather Channel)

 

1952: There have been thousands of weather reconnaissance and research flights into hurricanes in the Atlantic and Pacific since the mid-1940s. There have been several close calls, but only four flights have been lost. A B-29 Super-fortress flight into Super Typhoon Wilma 350 miles east of Leyte in the Philippines disappeared on this date. No trace was ever found of the plane or crew. In the last report, the flight was in the Super typhoon's strongest winds, which were around 160 mph.

1962 - A storm brought five to six inches of snow to Vermont and New Hampshire, with up to ten inches reported in the mountains. (The Weather Channel)

1983 - A heat wave was in progress over the Northern Rockies, with record highs of 81 degrees at Sheridan WY and Billings MT.(Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Five cities in south central Texas reported record high temperatures for the date, including Corpus Christi and Del Rio with readings of 93 degrees. Laredo TX was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 98 degrees. Thunderstorms moving over the Lower Mississsippi Valley deluged Lake Charles LA with 2.70 inches of rain in one hour resulting in severe local flooding. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1997: An autumn snowstorm pummeled central and south-central Nebraska with record early season snows. Wind-driven snowfall amounts totaled as much as two feet by storms' end. Several highways were closed, including Interstate 80, as near-blizzard conditions developed. Once the snow subsided, the record early season snow totals were tallied. Guide Rock measured twenty-four inches of snow, Clay Center twenty-three inches, and Hastings seventeen inches. A fifty-mile wide swath of snow more than fifteen inches fell from near Alma to York. Amounts further north averaged from four to eight inches. The heavy, wet snow was responsible for many power outages in the area as tree limbs broke and fell on power lines. At one point, the town of Hardy had no power and could not be accessed by vehicles due to the snow. Numerous schools and businesses remained closed several days following the storm. Many highways, including Interstate 80, closed at the height of the storm. On Highway 136 east of Alma, road crews worked for ten hours carving through a ten-foot drift that covered the road. Record cold accompanied the snow as temperatures dropped to the single digits on the morning of the 26th.

1988 - Thunderstorms moving out of northern Texas spawned five tornadoes in Louisiana during the morning hours. The thunderstorms also produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jennings LA, and the driver of a vehicle was killed by a falling tree near Coushatta LA. Snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region produced heavy snow in western New York State, with 12 inches reported at Colden. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably warm weather continued in the north central U.S. Afternoon highs of 78 degrees at Alpena MI, 75 degrees at Duluth MN, 79 degrees at Fargo ND, 77 degrees at International Falls MN, 76 degrees at Marquette MI, 75 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI, and 80 degrees at Saint Cloud MN, were all the warmest of record for so late in the season. Morning lows of 63 degrees at Concordia KS and Omaha NE were the warmest of record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1998: Hurricane Mitch, the second deadliest hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean, reached Category 5 strength on this day.

[bluewave]

 

 

[Allsnow]

53 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

 

I’m thinking we have a good chance of our first significant rain during the first week of November 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it  to 69 now down to 66