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62 / 49 and more near / low 80s today.  A mostly dry front overnight and Thu will cool it down with a reinforcing, mainly dry front Sunday.  Cooler Thu - Mon before ridging and warmth return on a Bermuda high 28th with a very warm close to the month.   Dryness continues through the opening of Nov, overall warmer than normal.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR:  87 (1947) 
NYC: 85 (1947)
LGA: 86 (1947)
JFK: 77 (1978)

 

Lows:

EWR: 30 (1997)
NYC: 32 (1969)
LGA: 32 (1969)
JFK: 33 (1969)


Historical:

 

1761 - A hurricane struck southeastern New England. It was the most violent in thirty years. Thousands of trees blocked roads in Massachsuetts and Rhode Island. (David Ludlum)

1843 - "Indian Summer" was routed by cold and snow that brought sleighing from the Poconos to Vermont. A foot of snow blanketed Haverhill NH and Newberry VT, and 18 to 24 inches were reported in some of the higher elevations. Snow stayed on the ground until the next spring. (22nd-23rd) (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) (The Weather Channel)

 

1878: One of the most severe hurricanes to affect eastern Virginia in the latter half of the 19th century struck on October 23, 1878. This storm moved rapidly northward from the Bahamas on October 22nd and hit the North Carolina coast late that same day moving at a forward speed of 40 to 50 mph. The storm continued northward passing through east central Virginia, Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania. The barometric pressure fell to 28.78". The five minute sustained wind reached 84 mph at Cape Henry. During the heaviest part of the gale, the wind at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina registered 100 mph. The instrument itself has finally blown away and therefore no further record was made. 

 

1920: Famed research meteorologist Theodore Fujita, was born on this date in Kitakyushu City, Japan. Fujita, known as "Mr. Tornado" after developing the international standard for measuring tornado severity, also discovered microbursts.

 

1947: Fish fell from the sky in Marksville, LA. Thousands of fish fell from the sky in an area 1,000 feet long by 80 feet wide possibly due to a waterspout. 

1987 - Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. It marked the sixth record low of the month for Greer SC and Columbia SC, and the ninth of the month for Montgomery AL. Showers and thunderstorms deluged Corpus Christi TX with five inches of rain. Winnemucca NV reported their first measurable rain in ninety-two days, while Yakima WA reported a record 96 days in a row without measurable rainfall. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Denver, CO, reported their first freeze of the autumn, and Chicago, IL, reported their first snow. In Texas, afternoon highs of 93 degrees at Austin and San Antonio were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain and high winds to the Central Pacific Coast Region. High winds in Nevada gusted to 67 mph at Reno, and thunderstorms around Redding CA produced wind gusts to 66 mph. Locally heavy rains in the San Francisco area caused numerous mudslides, adding insult to injury for earthquake victims. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2015: On this day, Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph) and its central pressure fell to 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury). Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory. Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997. While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have been a desert since August 20th and there’s no end in sight. One of the guys I work with is on well water and he said this is the 1st time in over 20 years that his well is starting to run low. He turned his lawn sprinklers off because of it 

I have a well, too, but unless pressure was noticeably lower or the water coming out of the faucets was no longer clear, how would one know if the well was running low?  Ours is about 120 feet deep FWIW.

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1 minute ago, jr461 said:

I have a well, too, but unless pressure was noticeably lower or the water coming out of the faucets was no longer clear, how would one know if the well was running low?  Ours is about 120 feet deep FWIW.

I’ve never had well water so I know nothing about it. Just repeating what he told me last night 

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Newark only needs 3 more days for the new longest dry streak record.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation < .01 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 26 1949-06-24
2 25 1939-11-30
3 24 1995-09-08
- 24 1980-02-15
- 24 1963-10-27
- 24 1959-09-27
- 24 1942-05-05
4 23 2024-10-22
- 23 1991-11-09
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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the first time we had two separate 590+DM ridge events in late October with the next big warm up next week.

 

IMG_1651.thumb.png.51823d4fa37f9bb3596f8e9d1d3d6a67.png

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

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11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

The longer that marine heatwave near Japan kept going you knew that it was only a matter of time before a big +EPO pattern emerged.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

The EC hurricane season was a complete bust. Several called (euro seasonal) for a wet northeast with tropical remnants. It’s been completely dry here since August 

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point

Yeah literally the complete opposite.   October is going to have a huge positive temp departure

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It will turn cooler tomorrow with the mercury being confined to the 60s. A shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is likely Sunday into Monday before it warms up quickly early next week.

Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat is affecting Phoenix and Tucson. The heat will persist through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 23 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. Further, today is Philadelphia's 25th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 4th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

Wilmington, DE:
October: 0.05", 1924
Monthly: 0.05", October 1924
Period of Record: January 1894-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +11.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +4.795 today. The preliminary figure exceeds the October monthly record of +4.521 that was set just yesterday. It is also the highest autumn value on record. The old autumn record of +4.544 was set on November 2, 1978.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.0° (2.1° above normal).

 

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I posted a list of longest NYC dry spells yesterday, now tied 10th longest: 

Rank _ Year ___ Days ___ Duration __________ 

_01 ___ 1924 ___ 36 ___ Oct 9 to Nov 13 _____ 

_02 ___ 1941 ___ 28 ___ Sep 5 to Oct 2 ______ 

t03 ___ 1884 ___ 27 ___ Sep 1 to 27 __________

t03 ___ 1910 ____27 ___ Sep 10 to Oct 6 _____

t05 ___ 1939 ___ 26 ___ Nov 6 to Dec 1 _____ 

t05 ___ 1973 ___ 26 ___ Oct 3 to 28 _________ 

t05 ___ 2001 ___ 26 ___ Apr 22 to May 17 ___ 

t08 ___ 1942 ___ 25 ___ Apr 11 to May 5 ____ 

t08 ___ 1968 ___ 25 ___ Feb 4 to 28 _________

t 10 ___ 1922 ___ 24 ___ Sep 13 to Oct 6 _____

t 10 ___ 1980 ___ 24 ___ Jan 23 to Feb 15 ___ 

t 10 ___ 1963 ___ 24 ___ Oct 4 to 27 _________

t 10 ___ 1995 ___ 24 ___ Aug 7 to 30 _________

t_10 ___ 2024 ___ 24 ___ Sep 30 to Oct 23 ___

 

It will only take five additional days for Oct 2024 to reach second place behind 36-day 1924. 

1973 dry spell was followed by a record rainfall on Oct 29, 1973. 

1963 dry spell was part of record dry October (0.14"). 

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