October 2024

[winterwx21]

82 degrees here. I'm leaving for bow hunting right now. It sure doesn't feel like hunting weather, lol. Two more days of this and then a nice cooldown. 

[donsutherland1]

Islip has reached 77°. That breaks the daily record of 76° that was set in 1963 and tied in 2016 and 2017.

[Stormlover74]

83 at ewr after a low of 46. Could still go a degree or two higher 

[dieselbug]

Hillsborough up to 82 from a morning low of 34.  That is unbelievable! 

[TheClimateChanger]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

83 at ewr after a low of 46. Could still go a degree or two higher 

The urban heat island effect has been solved!

[Brian5671]

GFS 384 precip map shows nothing for us through the end of the run...crazy

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS 384 precip map shows nothing for us through the end of the run...crazy

Euro has a cold front passage on Halloween with some rain. But those tend to dry up as we get closer

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro has a cold front passage on Halloween with some rain. But those tend to dry up as we get closer

Even then a quarter inch of rain would be vaporized in a day given the very dry ground-need a soaker of an inch or more that falls over 12 hrs or something along those lines.

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Fair, this was newer than many of the other papers however, of the ones I’ve personally read at least. There’s always variance with this sort of thing, and HTHH was very far from both conventionality and ease of measurement. It’s the first observed eruption of its type in modern history. Krakatau had some similarities but was ultimately 3x larger and fully magmatic, whereas this was more of a “super surtseyan” or phreatoplinian event. Krakatau destroyed its magmatic system and put a whole lot of fragmented rock and ash into the sky, HTHH blasted the ocean to the heavens. 

My point is the discrepancies, differing takes and opinions, and different analyses are totally reasonable for this eruption. They’ve still struggled to accurately constrain the size, initial estimates from geologists were as low as a VEI 4 though that never made any sense to me, and as high as 20 cubic kilometers which is much closer to Krakatau in size. Because the majority of the erupted material formed a curtain ignimbrite on the sea floor, measurement has been massively challenging. This makes estimating the gas release in the stratosphere trickier than it otherwise would’ve been. I’ve seen multiple revisions to the total sulfur load of this event, for example. And that normally tracks with the actual size, which has been in flux depending upon measurement methodology. 

One thing I found weird about that is I had never heard of a "volcanic summer" showing up in the geologic record. It's always a "volcanic winter" with a period of cooling corresponding to an explosive volcanic eruption. One would think if volcanos were capable of causing warming of a similar magnitude, the geologic record would have been replete with examples prior to 2022... especially considering the globe is like 70% water. Surely HTHH was not the first volcanic eruption of that magnitude in a relatively shallow ocean or sea?

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even then a quarter inch of rain would be vaporized in a day given the very dry ground-need a soaker of an inch or more that falls over 12 hrs or something along those lines.

It would not surprise me at all if the drought continues right through November, in fact I think it’s very likely 

[Big Jims Videos]

Really concerned Thursday for fire spread. The military base fire still burning at Ft Dix looks like a mushroom cloud and visible all the way from the beach bridges today. 

[forkyfork]

ewr has tied its record high of 84 so far

[donsutherland1]

Through 3 pm, the Northeast has seen a number of record-tying or record-breaking temperatures including:

Bangor: 74° (old record: 72°, 1936)
Boston: 82° (tied record set in 1920)
Hartford: 85° (old record: 82°, 1920)
Islip: 77° (old record: 76°, 1963, 2016, and 2017)
Manchester: 82° (old record: 77°, 1969 and 2017)
Newark: 84° (tied record set in 1947)
Poughkeepsie: 81° (tied record set in 1979)
Providence: 81° (tied record set in 1920)

[Volcanic Winter]

49 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

One thing I found weird about that is I had never heard of a "volcanic summer" showing up in the geologic record. It's always a "volcanic winter" with a period of cooling corresponding to an explosive volcanic eruption. One would think if volcanos were capable of causing warming of a similar magnitude, the geologic record would have been replete with examples prior to 2022... especially considering the globe is like 70% water. Surely HTHH was not the first volcanic eruption of that magnitude in a relatively shallow ocean or sea?

https://www.nasa.gov/earth/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/
 

Take a look at this article, it touches on various factors of what HTHH was extremely unique. There is no direct analogue in historic times, and an eruption with water vapor was the constituent pollutant will not exactly leave major sulfate and tephra deposits in Greenland / Antarctic ice cores, so they would be difficult to detect in the recent geologic past. We know HTHH had a similar event of a similar scale about a thousand years ago from analysis of the caldera itself. Tofua is another similar system with a similar magma composition , but the conduit and caldera is much more established on land and wouldn’t necessarily erupt the same way were it to have another climactic event. It’s really the combination of specifics that made HTHH unique, especially the intensity. Almost VEI 6 level of erupted volume mainly erupted within two hours… that’s absolutely extreme. 
 

It’s also the intensity of the main blast itself, a true natural nuke. It generated a meteo tsunami and pressure wave not seen since Krakatau, which as I mentioned isn’t a perfect analogue as it leaned much closer toward a magma rich highly sulfurous eruption. 

Many geologists / volcanologists I follow discussed in the aftermath how this would further the field. Very likely we’re blind to analogue events in the geologic record for some of the reasons I touched on, which means we don’t really know the recurrence. 
 

Also volcanic winter is something of a misnomer anyway. Usually summer temps are most impacted, such as “the year Without a summer” after Tambora. Obviously a volcanic disturbed winter isn’t a warm one, but the largest departures are often in the summer. 

Lot of ground to cover to give a satisfactory answer but I hope at least I was able to give you something.

[psv88]

83/41 split today. Diurnal of 42 is crazy for the island. 

[qg_omega]

Pure insanity for end of October but the new normal unfortunately

[vegan_edible]

18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Pure insanity for end of October but the new normal unfortunately

not quite sure how breaking a record equates to new normal when normal is normal and breaking a record is not necessarily normal. looking forward to more of you this winter tho!!

[bluewave]

First time that Newark reached 84° after October 20th for two consecutive years.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1947-12-31	87	0
2	1979-12-31	86	0
3	1950-12-31	85	0
4	2023-12-31	84	0
4	2024-12-31	84	0

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS 384 precip map shows nothing for us through the end of the run...crazy

There's no middle ground anymore. Just one extreme to the next. 

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, parts of the Northeast experienced near record and record warmth. Records included:

Bangor: 75° (old record: 72°, 1936)
Boston: 83° (old recrod: 82°, 1920)
Burlington: 77° (old record: 76°, 1995)
Hartford: 86° (old record: 82°, 1920) ***highest reading so late in the season***
Islip: 77° (old record: 76°, 1963, 2016, and 2017)
Manchester: 82° (old record: 77°, 1969 and 2017)
Newark: 84° (tied record set in 1947)
Poughkeepsie: 82° (old record: 81°, 1979)
Providence: 81° (tied record set in 1920)

Tomorrow will be another sunny and unseasonably warm day. Temperatures will again reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Warmer spots will again reach or exceed 80°. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern in place, a generally above normal temperature regime could last through the remainder of October. Any cool shots during that time would likely be brief. A shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is possible late next weekend into early next week.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 21 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. In addition, today is Philadelphia's 23rd consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 9th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken.

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October and monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region.

Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts:

Allentown:
October: 0.15", 1963
Monthly: 0.09", May 1964
Period of Record: January 1912-Present

New York City:
October: 0.14", 1963
Monthly: 0.02", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1869-Present

Newark:
October: 0.21", 1963
Monthly: 0.07", June 1949
Period of Record: January 1893-Present

Philadelphia:
October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963
Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963
Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent

Trenton:
October: 0.05", 1963
Monthly: 0.05", October 1963
Period of Record: September 1865-Present

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +13.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.414 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

 

[IrishRob17]

41/80 split today. 

[lee59]

After a morning low of 41.6, hit 79.4 this afternoon.

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

After a morning low of 41.6, hit 79.4 this afternoon.

79 at both my stations today as well.  Muttontown was 41 for the low, Syosset was 43 this morning.

[Pequest]

A 50 degree spread in temps today here in Warren County. Morning low of 32 and we maxed out at 82 earlier this afternoon. Incredible.

https://www.njweather.org/station/1029

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Pequest said:

A 50 degree spread in temps today here in Warren County. Morning low of 32 and we maxed out at 82 earlier this afternoon. Incredible.

https://www.njweather.org/station/1029

Yeah, we are getting a sampler of the normal diurnal temperature range in the high desert.

[doncat]

80/44 split.

[Allsnow]

Was in the Central Park today where the foliage looked about ready to pop soon 

 

The dry/cool nights have made for some nice color this season 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

 

EWR: 84
New Brnswck: 84
BLM: 82
ACY: 82
TEB: 82
TTN: 81
LGA: 81
PHL: 81
NYC: 79
JFK: 78
ISP: 77

[BlizzLuv]

6 hours ago, dieselbug said:

Hillsborough up to 82 from a morning low of 34.  That is unbelievable! 

I thought my station was reading incorrectly this afternoon when it read 81.

[Dan76]

Boy Alaska and BC getting blasted by storms on the whole length of GFS