October 2024

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be sunny and unseasonably warm. Temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. A few of the warmer spots could reach 80°. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern in place, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Any cool shots during that time would likely be brief.

Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 19 was 0.02" in 1886 and 1947). At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. In addition, today is Philadelphia's 22nd consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 13th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged. Almost all of the region is now in DO (abnormally dry) conditions. Southern New Jersey, Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania are in D1 (moderate drought) conditions with some areas of D2 (severe drought conditions).

Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, the expansive area of D0 conditions in the region will evolve into D1 conditions and the area of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey, and parts of Delaware and Maryland will likely grow.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall.

The SOI was +11.41 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.159 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

 

[doncat]

75/43 temp split today...YTD precip at 38.66" now falling into the below normal range.

[Picard]

Walpack, NJ had a 26/77 split today, for a 51 degree difference!
I got to go up in a fire tower this afternoon, the one up on the Kittatinny Ridge, about 2 miles north of 206 on the A.T.
In chatting with the watch guy, he was discussing just how bad it was, and the fact that they haven't really done many controlled burns in the state parks over the past years has made the current risk even worse.
Fascinating discussion also about how he can pinpoint exact compass bearing and approximate distance to any smoke he spots, and then radio it in.  I guess they also use the Rutgers website for current weather conditions around the state, and there was a Vantage Vue mounted on the tower.   Important job now for sure.  

A bigger part of me is starting to wonder about these climate tipping points they've talked about.   Admittedly, I haven't taken them completely seriously on certain things, but it does seem like things are running in more extremes than they have in the past, and certainly much warmer for more prolonged periods.  And this warmth and dry now is really something.
  
 

[lee59]

74 the high here after a low of 40. Heat Island in full affect tonight, still 66 in Manhattan, 49 here.

[EWR757]

I live about 3 miles ESE of SMQ and 300' higher on the First Watchung Mountain.   There was a 20 degree temperature difference between the SMQ ASOS at 1:30 am (37 F) and my house (57 F).   

 

Quite the temperature inversion. 

[Roger Smith]

1947 and 1963 were similar Octobers (probably a bit warmer) and were followed by wet spells in Nov and cold and snow in Dec (in 1963-64 into Jan). Winters ended with mild, dry Febs and variable marches. 

Looking at warm Octobers, 2017 was a warm October followed by (in modern terms) a decent winter. 

Oddly a bad result followed way back in 1879, after a warm October, it was a mild winter. 1971 was followed by a generally mild and snow-deficient winter too. 1900 was followed by a very dry winter, not particularly mild.

I will bet Nov is wetter and the winter is not as terrible as the past two. Low bar, but 2024-25 can manage it. 

 

[bluewave]

Several locations set a new October daily temperature range and tied for the fall.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&v=largest&month=fall&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Crazy. 42 currently going for a high of 82 

[jconsor]

Some short-term drought relief possible this weekend: https://x.com/yconsor/status/1848326240068837640

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

1947 and 1963 were similar Octobers (probably a bit warmer) and were followed by wet spells in Nov and cold and snow in Dec (in 1963-64 into Jan). Winters ended with mild, dry Febs and variable marches. 

Looking at warm Octobers, 2017 was a warm October followed by (in modern terms) a decent winter. 

Oddly a bad result followed way back in 1879, after a warm October, it was a mild winter. 1971 was followed by a generally mild and snow-deficient winter too. 1900 was followed by a very dry winter, not particularly mild.

I will bet Nov is wetter and the winter is not as terrible as the past two. Low bar, but 2024-25 can manage it. 

 

The new extended ensembles are bone dry for early-mid November in the east….

[Volcanic Winter]

Made it down to 39. 

It’s tough for me to appreciate warmth this deep into fall as it feels like a constant reminder of our progressively wrecked climatology. I also enjoy seasonality we’re supposed to have. 

I’m a hardcore winter guy and love hiking in snowcover, but fall hikes on cool days with the explosion of color on the changing leaves is extremely enjoyable. Some of these days have felt so hot in the sun by mid afternoon it feels like the beginning of September for a couple hours. 

The one saving grace has been the low dews allowing us to properly cool down at night. But now that’s intermingled into a growing drought, so yes thankfully it’s been a very wet year or this would’ve been more problematic. 

[SnoSki14]

Probably a 45+ diurnal temperature swing today. Low of 39 here. Lots of places nearby dipped to the mid 30s. 

Getting a day like this is something but multiple days of these types of swings has never happened before. True desert like climate lately 

[bluewave]

One of the few times ISP has come to within 1° of the record high and still managed a -2 minimum departure.

 

TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         76   1255 PM  77    2021  63     13       65       
  MINIMUM         44    632 AM  30    1974  46     -2       57       
  AVERAGE         60                        54      6       61  

[Volcanic Winter]

@bluewave

I had actually caught that paper showing Hunga Tonga actually had a slight cooling effect, apparently the water vapor was offset by sulfates and other volcanic particulates that do normally cool in more typical large eruptions. Such an unusual event, very large but very atypical - still the majority of erupted matter ended up under the ocean surface, yet still enough made it into the atmosphere to produce an effect. Very large event overall.

That’s actually pretty scary, though the effect was small overall - I think it felt better to assume some of the warmth since Jan 22 was attributable to HTHH’s massive water vapor flux and not just a spike in global ocean / atmospheric heat. 

Ruang this year was a large and more typical explosive event, but size estimates of the two blasts have varied by the sources I normally go by. Initially I believed the two blasts to cumulatively just cross the VEI 5 threshold, but I’m not 100% on that and need to revisit. Still the plume definitely penetrated the stratosphere, but even a low 5 doesn’t normally perturb the climate much in a measurable way. At the largest estimate, a similar size to St Helens which did not have a measurable impact.

[SACRUS]

 

Yesterdays highs;

 

TEB: 80
EWR: 79
New Brnswck: 78
ACY: 77
BLM: 76
PHL: 76
ISP: 76
TTN: 76
LGA: 76
JFK: 73
NYC: 73

[SACRUS]

 

 

55 / 40 up 17 degrees already.   Near/ low 80s the next 3 days (Mon- Wed).  Front comes through on Thu with  maybe a passing shower and cooler Thu -  and coming weekend with reinforcing shot of cold on Saturday morning, with potential showers but mainly dry.  Warmer by the 28th and through the close of the month.  Overall warmer than normal with the dry regime.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

This is also interesting, cold once again returning to China and the other side of the planet while we roast. Also been a theme lately it seems. 
 

https://watchers.news/2024/10/21/northern-china-breaks-21-mid-october-records-during-an-unusual-cold-spell-2024/

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@bluewave

I had actually caught that paper showing Hunga Tonga actually had a slight cooling effect, apparently the water vapor was offset by sulfates and other volcanic particulates that do normally cool in more typical large eruptions. Such an unusual event, very large but very atypical - still the majority of erupted matter ended up under the ocean surface, yet still enough made it into the atmosphere to produce an effect. Very large event overall.

That’s actually pretty scary, though the effect was small overall - I think it felt better to assume some of the warmth since Jan 22 was attributable to HTHH’s massive water vapor flux and not just a spike in global ocean / atmospheric heat. 

Ruang this year was a large and more typical explosive event, but size estimates of the two blasts have varied by the sources I normally go by. Initially I believed the two blasts to cumulatively just cross the VEI 5 threshold, but I’m not 100% on that and need to revisit. Still the plume definitely penetrated the stratosphere, but even a low 5 doesn’t normally perturb the climate much in a measurable way. At the largest estimate, a similar size to St Helens which did not have a measurable impact.

Yeah, it really seems like something significant changed with the global climate since last year as this record temperature spike has no parallel with any past El Niño years. The warming began much sooner than any other past El Niño years. And the temperatures continue above where they should be on a La Niña transition.

 

 

 

[gravitylover]

I'm still pulling ripe strawberries and tomatoes from the garden so that's nice. 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

This is also interesting, cold once again returning to China and the other side of the planet while we roast. Also been a theme lately it seems. 
 

https://watchers.news/2024/10/21/northern-china-breaks-21-mid-october-records-during-an-unusual-cold-spell-2024/

The arctic air is staying locked on the other side of the hemisphere through at least the start of November. If we reach the end of next month and it’s still there with no signs of it migrating to our side of the pole that will be a very bad omen. A continued drought through the end of November would be another bad omen

[FPizz]

23 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@bluewave

I had actually caught that paper showing Hunga Tonga actually had a slight cooling effect, apparently the water vapor was offset by sulfates and other volcanic particulates that do normally cool in more typical large eruptions. Such an unusual event, very large but very atypical - still the majority of erupted matter ended up under the ocean surface, yet still enough made it into the atmosphere to produce an effect. Very large event overall.

That’s actually pretty scary, though the effect was small overall - I think it felt better to assume some of the warmth since Jan 22 was attributable to HTHH’s massive water vapor flux and not just a spike in global ocean / atmospheric heat. 

Ruang this year was a large and more typical explosive event, but size estimates of the two blasts have varied by the sources I normally go by. Initially I believed the two blasts to cumulatively just cross the VEI 5 threshold, but I’m not 100% on that and need to revisit. Still the plume definitely penetrated the stratosphere, but even a low 5 doesn’t normally perturb the climate much in a measurable way. At the largest estimate, a similar size to St Helens which did not have a measurable impact.

Other papers say otherwise though.  Pick which one you want and run with it I guess.  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (1947)
NYC: 84 (1920)
LGA: 82 (1947)
JFK: 81 (1963)

Lows:

EWR: 31 (1974)
NYC: 31 (1871)
LGA: 33 (1974)
JFK: 31 (1973)

Historical:

 

1934 - A severe windstorm lashed the northern Pacific coast. In Washington State, the storm claimed the lives of 22 persons, and caused 1.7 million dollars damage, mostly to timber. Winds, gusting to 87 mph at North Head WA, produced waves twenty feet high. (David Ludlum)

 

1957 - The second in a series of unusual October storms hit southern California causing widespread thunderstorms. Santa Maria was drenched with 1.13 inches of rain in two hours. Hail drifted to 18 inches in East Los Angeles. Waterspouts were sighted off Point Mugu and Oceanside. (20th-21st) (The Weather Channel)

1975: Carlton Fisk made history on this day because of a walk-off home run in the 1975 World Series, after rain had postponed it for three days.

1987 - Cold arctic air continued to invade the central U.S. Eleven record lows were reported in the Great Plains Region, including lows of 12 degrees at Valentine NE, and 9 degrees at Aberdeen SD. Temperatures warmed rapidly during the day in the Southern and Central Plains Region. Goodland KS warmed from a morning low of 24 degrees to an afternoon high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached 1.5 billion dollars. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12 degree north parallel. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued to grip the south central and southeastern U.S. Twenty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Calico AR with a reading of 26 degrees, and Daytona Beach FL with a low of 41 degrees. Squalls in the Great Lakes Region finally came to an end, but not before leaving Marquette MI buried under 12.7 inches of snow, a record 24 hour total for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably a 45+ diurnal temperature swing today. Low of 39 here. Lots of places nearby dipped to the mid 30s. 

Getting a day like this is something but multiple days of these types of swings has never happened before. True desert like climate lately 

Yeah I'm not sure the last time EWR had a low in the 40s and a high in the 80s. I would think March or april but its definitely rare

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

And in places which are usually much drier than our area…

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I'm not sure the last time EWR had a low in the 40s and a high in the 80s. I would think March or april but its definitely rare

Came close on this April 28th 80/50 split.

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Came close on this April 28th 80/50 split.

Yeah I saw that. Looks like April of 2023 they did an 83/48. Today should be about the same

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Other papers say otherwise though.  Pick which one you want and run with it I guess.  

Fair, this was newer than many of the other papers however, of the ones I’ve personally read at least. There’s always variance with this sort of thing, and HTHH was very far from both conventionality and ease of measurement. It’s the first observed eruption of its type in modern history. Krakatau had some similarities but was ultimately 3x larger and fully magmatic, whereas this was more of a “super surtseyan” or phreatoplinian event. Krakatau destroyed its magmatic system and put a whole lot of fragmented rock and ash into the sky, HTHH blasted the ocean to the heavens. 

My point is the discrepancies, differing takes and opinions, and different analyses are totally reasonable for this eruption. They’ve still struggled to accurately constrain the size, initial estimates from geologists were as low as a VEI 4 though that never made any sense to me, and as high as 20 cubic kilometers which is much closer to Krakatau in size. Because the majority of the erupted material formed a curtain ignimbrite on the sea floor, measurement has been massively challenging. This makes estimating the gas release in the stratosphere trickier than it otherwise would’ve been. I’ve seen multiple revisions to the total sulfur load of this event, for example. And that normally tracks with the actual size, which has been in flux depending upon measurement methodology. 

[TheClimateChanger]

[SACRUS]

 

Quicky to 79 here.  Desert grows

[donsutherland1]

Newark has so far reached 80°. 2024 becomes the third consecutive year where Newark has seen an 80° or above temperature after October 20th. The 1946-1948 period is the only other occurrence of three consecutive years with such warmth after October 20th.