SRRTA22 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 I can feel this winter will be different than the ones we've seen in the previous years.... Not anything crazy (obviously I can't tell nor explain why) But I feel this winter is gonna catch a lot of us off guard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 7 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: I can feel this winter will be different than the ones we've seen in the previous years.... Not anything crazy (obviously I can't tell nor explain why) But I feel this winter is gonna catch a lot of us off guard Odds strongly favor you will be correct. I would say different than the ones we've seen in recent previous years. I would be surprised if we didn't get more snow and colder temperatures than recent years. Then again, I see below average precipitation continuing so I'm not looking for it to be special. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 It’s tough to get sustained cold any time of the year these days when what was originally forecast to be a modest ridge a few weeks ago expanded into a near record 591 dm ridge. Old forecast Verification 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 The combination of drought and these mega ridges is something new. This would be very bad if it held into next spring/summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 38F this morning. coldest morning yet. Surprised honestly. Radiational cooling at its best 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Some nice diurnal temperature swings here the last few days: Thu: 29/58 Fri: 29/67 Sat: 31/70(forecast) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said: Some nice diurnal temperature swings here the last few days: Thu: 28/58 Fri: 29/67 Sat: 31/70(forecast) Yeah, the near record low dew points and humidity give the usual spots a boost in the radiational cooling department on mornings like this. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off It`s also notable just how dry the airmass is, with Whiteface`s dewpoint of -13F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the near record low dew points and humidity give the usual spots a boost in the radiational cooling department on mornings like this. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off It`s also notable just how dry the airmass is, with Whiteface`s dewpoint of -13F. Absolutely. Should have decent swings tomorrow and Monday as well thanks to the dryness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Smashing records every day now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the near record low dew points and humidity give the usual spots a boost in the radiational cooling department on mornings like this. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off It`s also notable just how dry the airmass is, with Whiteface`s dewpoint of -13F. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s tough to get sustained cold any time of the year these days when what was originally forecast to be a modest ridge a few weeks ago expanded into a near record 591 dm ridge. Old forecast Verification Are there verification scores for the Euro AI? I would think/hope it’s catching onto all these situations where the ridge in the East is stronger than forecast 7 days out or more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 28 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Smashing records every day now Philadelphia has a real chance to reach or break its record of 29 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 38 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Precipitation through October 18: New York City: Trace; Philadelphia: 0.00" (Phoenix: Trace). The latest weekly precipitation forecasts remain bone dry for the Mid-Atlantic: CFSv2: ECMWF: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Precipitation through October 18: New York City: Trace; Philadelphia: 0.00" (Phoenix: Trace). The latest weekly precipitation forecasts remain bone dry for the Mid-Atlantic: CFSv2: ECMWF: Brutal. Worst drought in years 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Already up 20 to 51, another glorious day out there, ya gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Brutal. Worst drought in years It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather Agreed. We’ve seen it worse in recent times. Who knows what the future holds but today is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather Exactly. Reservoir levels are at average to date, so not really going to complain about perfect weather. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 34 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather the river that gives me the water i use to water my fall greens needs to stay flowing thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 7 minutes ago, FPizz said: Exactly. Reservoir levels are at average to date, so not really going to complain about perfect weather. But we don't live in the southwest. This "perfect" weather will eventually become a big problem. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather What will happen first our first freeze or meaningful rainfall? we might not get our first freeze until late November now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: But we don't live in the southwest. This "perfect" weather will eventually become a big problem. Point being we can't do anything about it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 67 / 38 off a low of 35. Sunny - sunny sunny, 70s today, near / low 80s Sunday - Tuesday . Wed looks like dry frontal passage later in the day. A bit cooler (near normal) Thu - Sat before warming up on the 28th. Overall warmer with the dryness continuing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 Records: Highs: EWR: 87 (2016) NYC: 85 (2016) LGA: 86 (2016) JFK: 86 (2016) Lows: EWR: 30 (1976) NYC: 30 (1940) LGA: 32 (1940) JFK: 31 (1976) Historical: 1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum) 1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the year. 1996: The opening game of World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 49 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What will happen first our first freeze or meaningful rainfall? we might not get our first freeze until late November now Isn't the average mid November on the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 18 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Isn't the average mid November on the coast? Late October for the suburbs of Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: What will happen first our first freeze or meaningful rainfall? we might not get our first freeze until late November now Interesting that MJO looks to move into phase 8 to start November. I wonder if things may trend cooler for once 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: It is what it is. At this point it's better to just enjoy the nearly perfect weather I'm enjoying the perfect weather but also very annoyed, lol. It's frustrating for gardeners when it's this dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 19 Share Posted October 19 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Interesting that MJO looks to move into phase 8 to start November. I wonder if things may trend cooler for once 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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