October 2024

[lee59]

38 here, no frost

[ForestHillWx]

35 here; 29 in the valley. 

[dmillz25]

42 here

[Poker2015]

33 here

[SACRUS]

 

37 / 32 partly cloudy.  A touch warmer today - low 60s.  Warming trend continues Fri and a beautiful weekend (another one) with low - mid 70s on Saturday and Mid/upper 70s on sunday - mainly sunny.   Mon - Tue warmest near / low 80s (in the warm spots).  Overall warmer than normal  the next 7 - 10 days and the dry continues for 9 of 10 weeks and couting.

 

[SACRUS]

Dry domain - last meaningful rain for most / widespread was Sep 29th 

 

 

[JerseyWx]

37 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

35 here; 29 in the valley. 

Same here.

[SACRUS]

 

Cool spell

 

EWR:

10/15:  60 / 45 (-5)
10/16: 62 / 43 (-4)

NYC:

10/15: 57 / 45 (-7)
10/16: 59 / 44 (-6)

 

LGA:

10/15: 59 / 46 (-7)
10/16: 59 / 45  (-8)


JFK:

JFK:

10/15:  60 / 46 (-5)
10/16:  62 / 45 (-3)

 

[psv88]

40 last night, wind stayed up, especially north shore. 

[Volcanic Winter]

36 again, tied with yesterday. Interesting variances. 

Wife and I are doing Iceland in December this year (normally we go in October or November), taking no chances with my winter weather . 

[bluewave]

Warm and dry Southeast Ridge pattern until further notice after this brief cooldown. 

 

 

[uofmiami]

37 in Muttontown & 40 in Syosset this morning. 

[Dark Star]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warm and dry Southeast Ridge pattern until further notice after this brief cooldown. 

 

 

Looks like a gradual turn to zonal, with a hint of some colder air ready to plunge down out of northwestern Canada?

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Looks like a gradual turn to zonal, with a hint of some colder air ready to plunge down out of northwestern Canada?

This weekend was supposed to be closer to zonal with a weaker Southeast Ridge in the original long range forecast. But instead we are getting a near record 590+ DM ridge. So while the long range models can give a general idea of where the ridge axis will line up, the magnitude of the ridge usually overperforms the closer we get. So we should see near record highs early next week around 80° in the usual NJ warm spots . Then maybe a pullback closer to normal for a few days later next week. Then the next ridge amplification and warmer temps again after that. We could be looking at highs in the 70s near the end of the month when the daily mean high temperature is close to 60°.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Poker2015 said:

33 here

I hit 31, first below freezing.  Saw a few 28's and 29's nearby as well.  

[uofmiami]

18 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Looks like a gradual turn to zonal, with a hint of some colder air ready to plunge down out of northwestern Canada?

Have the W PAC typhoon recurving possibly for the end of month into November. 
 

 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Have the W PAC typhoon recurving possibly for the end of month into November. 
 

 

Good, lots more typhoons there. Keep sending them east of Japan to cool down that boiling water and maybe salvage a PDO not in horrendously negative territory. 

[qg_omega]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This weekend was supposed to be closer to zonal with a weaker Southeast Ridge in the original long range forecast. But instead we are getting a near record 590+ DM ridge. So while the long range models can give a general idea of where the ridge axis will line up, the magnitude of the ridge usually overperforms the closer we get. So we should see near record highs early next week around 80° in the usual NJ warm spots . Then maybe a pullback closer to normal for a few days later next week. Then the next ridge amplification and warmer temps again after that. We could be looking at highs in the 70s near the end of the month when the daily mean high temperature is close to 60°.

November looks well above normal

[Dark Star]

47 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Have the W PAC typhoon recurving possibly for the end of month into November. 
 

 

 

31 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

November looks well above normal

It's hard to bet against persistence.  However, depending upon the seemingly never ending warm Pacific jet, I do see a hint of possible normal average temperatures for at least the upper midwest...

[MANDA]

Latest Drought Monitor.  Abnormal dryness and drought continues to expand.

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 90 (1938)
NYC: 90 (1938)
LGA: 83 (2016)
JFK: 82 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 29 (1937) *earliest reading below 30
NYC: 33 (1886)
LGA: 38 (1970)
JFK: 38 (1970)


Historical:

 

1781 - General Cornwallis attempted to escape encirclement by crossing York River, "but a violent storm arose" dispersing his boats causing him to ask for an armistice. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1910 - A hurricane made a loop off the southwest coast of Florida. Winds above 100 mph were reported at Fort Myers FL, and the barometric pressure at Sand Key reached 28.40 inches. (David Ludlum)

1910: A category 4 hurricane moved north-northeast, passing just east of the Dry Tortugas. The maximum storm surge observed in Key West was 8 feet, with 15-foot waves at what is now Fort Zachary Taylor State Park.

1950 - Small but powerful Hurricane King struck Miami, FL. The hurricane packs winded to 122 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Hurricane King then moved up the Florida peninsula to Georgia. Four persons were killed and damage was 28 million dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1971 - Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray CO. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine persons were injured in the tornado, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. (The Weather Channel)
 

1971: Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray, Colorado. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine people were injured in the storm, all at a trailer court at the edge of town.

 

1984 - A snowstorm struck northern Utah producing a record 18 inches in 24 hours at Salt Lake City, and 40 inches at the nearby Alta Ski Resort. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington UT. (Storm Data)

1987 - It was a great day for an Oktoberfest, or to enjoy the colors of autumn, as much of the nation enjoyed sunny and mild weather. Columbia SC dipped to 34 degrees, marking their third morning in a row of record cold. Bakersfield CA reached 80 degrees for the 143rd day in a row to break a record established in 1940. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes in Indiana, including one which injured four persons. Strong thunderstorm winds at Connerville IND caused three million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced hail two inches in diameter Colfax. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms representing the remnants of Hurricane Jerry deluged southeast Kentucky with four to six inches of rain in 18 to 24 hours, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding resulted in more than five million dollars damage. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern U.S. Lakeland FL and Orlando FL reported record highs of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1998: During the weekend of October 17-18, 1998, torrential rains fell over southern and southeast Texas. Up to 22 inches of rain fell, which first resulted in deadly flash flooding from San Antonio to Austin followed by record-breaking river floods along several South Texas rivers the following week. Based on provisional data from the USGS, which is subject to revision, the flood peak for this event was the highest known peak stage at 15 locations. Tragically, a total of 31 people died during the event (26 drownings, two tornado deaths, two heart attacks, and one electrocution/drowning).  At least 17 of the drowning victims were in vehicles that were either driven into water or were swept away by rapidly rising water.  Preliminary property damage estimates approached three-quarters of a billion dollars.

 

[MANDA]

Some NJ morning lows:

[FPizz]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Some NJ morning lows:

Wow, Duke park down to 27.  I saw those temps around that area on the Ambient App.  Were there any freeze warnings up?

[MANDA]

3 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Wow, Duke park down to 27.  I saw those temps around that area on the Ambient App.  Were there any freeze warnings up?

There were Freeze Warnings posted for my area, not sure if they extended as far south as your area.

[SACRUS]

From 34 to 56 and full sun now.

[snywx]

30° for a low here

Currently 49°

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Latest Drought Monitor.  Abnormal dryness and drought continues to expand.

Unbelievable that CT/LI are abnormally dry and on the way to drought when we had such a wet summer and the massive Aug deluge in parts of Suffolk. 

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Unbelievable that CT/LI are abnormally dry and on the way to drought when we had such a wet summer and the massive Aug deluge in parts of Suffolk. 

Crazy-if you told me on 8/19 that we'd have 2 months of essentially no rain I'd have laughed.

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Latest Drought Monitor.  Abnormal dryness and drought continues to expand.

Very impressive. 77.50% of the continental U.S. is in D0 to D4. That is the 20th highest weekly amount since the drought monitor began in 2000. Only the period from July 10, 2012 to September 4, 2012, and the period from October 11, 2022 to December 13, 2022 had more D0 or worse conditions. No other single week outside of those stretches had more drought or dryness.

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive. 77.50% of the continental U.S. is in D0 to D4. That is the 20th highest weekly amount since the drought monitor began in 2000. Only the period from July 10, 2012 to September 4, 2012, and the period from October 11, 2022 to December 13, 2022 had more D0 or worse conditions. No other single week outside of those stretches had more drought or dryness.

Tough to get rainfall here with record levels of ridging overhead and the 6 SD Pacific Jet pushed all the way up into Alaska.