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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yesterday was the 2nd latest first 40s of the season at ISP. This was due to the record easterly flow keeping the minimums up in September. This surface pressure pattern is finally reversing allowing some NW flow with the cooler temps. Now that that big high over New England has relaxed for a while it will allow a SW to W flow warm up later in October which we didn’t see much of over the summer due to all the onshore flow. The expanding drought to our West could allow highs on a few days to approach 80° which is near record levels in late October on some days at Newark like we saw last October. 
 

First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121
2024 05-13 (2024) 42 10-08 (2024) 47 147
2023 06-08 (2023) 47 10-08 (2023) 47 121
2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131
2021 06-01 (2021) 49 10-01 (2021) 49 121


 

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I was surprised Islip did not hit the 40s on September 9. They got to 50, I got down to 48 that night. As you mentioned the east wind probably had more of an affect on them.

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39 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I was surprised Islip did not hit the 40s on September 9. They got to 50, I got down to 48 that night. As you mentioned the east wind probably had more of an affect on them.

The easterly flow resulted in numerous stations approaching their warmest September monthly minimum despite the average monthly temperature closer to normal. The effect was most obvious at JFK which set a new record warm minimum for September at 56°. Westchester only made it down to 49° which was 2nd warmest.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2021 53 0
2 2015 52 0
3 2018 51 0
4 2024 50 0
- 2023 50 0
5 2017 49 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2024 56 0
- 2015 56 0
3 2021 54 0
- 2018 54 0
- 2017 54 0
- 2002 54 0
- 1994 54 0
- 1968 54 0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 2018 51 0
2 2024 49 0
3 2008 48 0
- 2002 48 0
- 1999 48 2
- 1968 48 0
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53 / 45 off a low of 43. Near / low 70s and sunny today.  Falling to the 40s metro tonight perhaps a few upper 30s inland.  Cooler Thu / Fri (AM)>  Warmer  Sat - Sun before the coolest period of the season arrives 10/15 - 10/17 first frosts outside of metro.  Beyond there warmer to potentially much warmer.  Overall drier period continues,

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 88 (2011)
NYC: 86 (1916)
LGA: 85 (2011)
JFK: 87 (2011)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 35 (1988)
NYC: 37 (1988)
LGA: 40 (1988)
JFK: 35 (2001)

 

Historical:

1804: The famous Snow Hurricane moved ashore near Atlantic City on this day. After briefly passing through Connecticut and into Massachusetts, cold air was entrained in the circulation with heavy snow falling between New York to southern Canada. Berkshires Massachusetts and Concord New Hampshire record two feet of snow with this hurricane. This storm produced the first observation of snow from a hurricane, but not the last. Hurricane Ginny of 1963 brought up to 18 inches (400 mm) of snow to portions of Maine. 

1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2001: An unusually strong fall outbreak of tornadoes spawned at least 23 twisters across parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma. Hardest hit was the town of Cordell, OK, but a 22 minute lead time led to an amazingly low casualty count: only nine injuries and no fatalities. 

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New York City could see its first temperature below 50° since May 13th tomorrow morning and again Friday morning. Saturday will turn briefly milder before cooler air returns. Another particularly strong cold shot is likely near mid-month before a potential warming trend develops.

Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast this evening as a Category 3. It will bring a devastating storm surge inland. Landfall will likely occur just south of the Tampa Bay area.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued continued to fade. The heat will dissipate by the weekend.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the dirsuptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was +4.64 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.260 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.3° (0.4° above normal).

 

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