SACRUS Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Highs: JFK: 80 ACY: 80 EWR: 79 New Brnswck: 78 BLM: 78 PHL: 78 TEB: 77 TTN: 77 ISP: 76 LGA: 75 NYC: 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 76 today. Beautiful weather continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Very low dew points moving in the next several days. Highs in the upper 60s in NJ and dew points falling near freezing. Should drop the relative humidity below 30% in the driest spots. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very low dew points moving in the next several days. Highs in the upper 60s in NJ and dew points falling near freezing. Should drop the relative humidity below 30% in the driest spots. A very fall-like feel as NYC gets so see its first 40s of the season next few nights. Possibly down to 40 here late week, not quite cold enough for frost but close. Can’t totally rule it out. The pine barrens likely get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 22 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Possibly down to 40 here late week, not quite cold enough for frost but close. Can’t totally rule it out. The pine barrens likely get there. Yeah, this dry weather will allow spots to radiate very well if the winds can fall off enough before we warm up into the weekend. This rainfall pattern since late August may be a first for the CONUS. A spot like Port Jefferson Station may have been the first U.S case of having a 12.82 historic rainfall event followed by only .39 of rain in the following 45 days. https://www.cocorahs.org/ViewData/StationPrecipSummary.aspx NY-SF-100 Port Jefferson Station 0.3 SSW Lat: 40.919969 Lon: -73.069407 * indicates Multi-Day Accumulation Report Station NY-SF-100 Date Precip in. 08/17/2024 0.00 08/18/2024 0.27 08/19/2024 9.56 08/20/2024 3.26 08/21/2024 0.00 08/22/2024 0.00 08/23/2024 0.00 08/24/2024 0.00 08/25/2024 0.00 08/26/2024 0.00 08/27/2024 0.08 08/28/2024 0.00 08/29/2024 0.00 08/30/2024 0.01 08/31/2024 0.00 09/01/2024 T 09/02/2024 0.06 09/03/2024 0.00 09/04/2024 0.00 09/05/2024 0.00 09/06/2024 0.00 09/07/2024 0.00 09/08/2024 0.08 09/09/2024 0.00 09/10/2024 0.00 09/11/2024 0.00 09/12/2024 0.00 09/13/2024 0.00 09/14/2024 0.00 09/15/2024 0.00 09/16/2024 0.00 09/17/2024 0.00 09/18/2024 0.00 09/19/2024 0.00 09/20/2024 0.00 09/21/2024 0.00 09/22/2024 0.00 09/23/2024 0.00 09/24/2024 0.01 09/25/2024 0.00 09/26/2024 0.00 09/27/2024 0.04 09/28/2024 0.02 09/29/2024 0.14 09/30/2024 0.03 10/01/2024 0.00 10/02/2024 0.00 10/03/2024 0.00 10/04/2024 0.00 10/05/2024 0.00 10/06/2024 0.00 10/07/2024 T 10/08/2024 -- Totals : 13.56 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Nothing on the models for the next two weeks dry dry dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 53 / 45. Near / low 70s. Cool through Fri before warming up briefly Sat - mon. Much cooler 10/15 - 10/17 first frosts inland perhaps low 40s metro. Warmer by the 19 as ridge builds east otherwise the dry period remains in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Upper 40s here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 First week departures throuhg the 7: JFK: +4.1 EWR: + 4.1 ISP: +3.3 NYC: +3.1 LGA: +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Coolest morning I've experienced in a while. 49 degrees when I let the puppy out in our backyard at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: With the way we are continuing to dry out, it will be interesting to see if we could approach record warmth in late October when the big ridge out West finally comes east. Highest 850 anomalies are centered to our W, so Great Lakes area may approach record warmth it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Records: Highs: EWR: 89 (200) NYC: 87 (200&) LGA: 89 (200&) JFK: 90 (200&) Lows: EWR: 32 (1935) NYC: 37 (1988) LGA: 40 (1988) JFK: 40 (2001) Historical: 1871 - Prolonged drought and dessicating winds led to the great Chicago fire, the Peshtigo horror, and the Michigan fire holocaust. Fire destroyed more than seventeen thousand buildings killing more than 200 persons in the city of Chicago, while a fire consumed the town of Peshtigo WI killing more than 1100 persons. In Wisconsin, a million acres of land were burned, and in Michigan, 2.5 million acres were burned killing 200 persons. "Tornadoes of fire" generated by intense heat caused houses to explode in fire, and burned to death scores of persons seeking refuge in open fields. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1871: The Great Chicago Fire burns much of the city to the ground, fanned by strong southwest winds. An estimated 250 were killed. On the same night, forest fires swept through Peshtigo, Wisconsin. An estimated 1,500 to possibly as many as 2,500 dies as gale-force winds push flames across town. Severe drought blamed for tinder-dry conditions. 1878: An estimated F3 tornado struck Monticello, Iowa, around 5:30 pm. The Catholic Church was demolished, along with several homes. The business portion of the town was comparatively uninjured. While no lives were lost, 11 people were injured. The German Church in Richland township was destroyed, along with other buildings in the surrounding county. A wind and hail storm occurred during the evening hours in Sigourney, Iowa, causing considerable damage. Fences and shade trees were blown down, and much glass was broken by hail, which fell in large stones. 1901 - A deluge at Galveston, TX, produced nearly twelve inches of rain in about a six hour period. The rains came precisely thirteen months after the day of the famous Galveston hurricane disaster. (David Ludlum) 1919: An intense tornado moved through the town of Hoisington, 11 miles north of Great Bend, Kansas. It damaged or destroyed 60 homes which resulted in $200,000 in damages. Business papers and canceled checks were found at Lincoln, 55 miles to the northeast. 1946: A minimal Category 1 hurricane made landfall over Bradenton, Florida, before tracking north-northeast across Tampa Bay. The storm was the last hurricane to make direct landfall in the Tampa Bay area. 1982 - An unusually early snowstorm hit the northern Black Hills of Wyoming and South Dakota. The storm produced up to 54 inches of snow, and winds as high as 70 mph. The snowfall was very much dependent upon topography. Rapid City, 20 miles away, received just a trace of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the southeastern U.S. Thirty cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Madison WI with a reading of 22 degrees. The low of 28 degrees at Evansville IN was the coolest of record for so early in the season. Hot weather continued in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix AZ reported a record high of 104 degrees and a record tying 116 days of 100 degree weather for the year. Tucson AZ established an all-time record with 72 days of 100 degree weather for the year. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Snow was reported across parts of northern New England. Two inches blanketed Mount Snow VT. Warm weather continued in the northwestern U.S. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Stampede Pass WA exceeded their previous record for October by seven degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning lows in the 20s were reported from the Northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. International Falls MN and Marquette MI reported record lows of 22 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in central California as the Oakland Athletics won the American League pennant. San Luis Obispo CA reported a high of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 41 this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Coolest ais of the season so far is being forecast between the 15th / 17th. Much warmer post that cool down on consecutive runs. 90% of the US remains dry in the next week outside Florida current storms then Milton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Late October looks very warm, 80s aren’t done yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 12 minutes ago, FPizz said: 41 this morning Same here. Felt great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 5 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Late October looks very warm, 80s aren’t done yet 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 45 this morning. I remember when I was a kid first week of October or so would be when you’d have the first days with highs struggling to reach 60 and lows dropping into the lower 40s. I don’t see any sub 60 highs for the next few weeks but lows should approach 40, so we are stepping down relatively close to normal schedule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 Chilly morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: 10-28-76 was the last time that NYC dropped into the 20s in October. Data for October 28, 1976 through October 28, 1976Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 16 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 17 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 18 CT DANBURY COOP 20 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 20 NY CARMEL COOP 20 CT WESTBROOK COOP 20 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 20 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 21 NY SCARSDALE COOP 21 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 22 NY WEST POINT COOP 22 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 23 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 23 NY SUFFERN COOP 23 CT GROTON COOP 24 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 24 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 24 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 24 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 24 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 25 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 25 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 25 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 26 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 26 NY MINEOLA COOP 27 NJ CRANFORD COOP 27 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 27 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 28 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 28 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 28 NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 28 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 29 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 29 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 29 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 29 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 29 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 3 hours ago, bluewave said: With the way we are continuing to dry out, it will be interesting to see if we could approach record warmth in late October when the big ridge out West finally comes east. Looks like zonal flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: The average high in October is 70 at the beginning of the month to upper 50's by Halloween..So temps in the mid 60's are normal..October was really never cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 10-28-76 was the last time that NYC dropped into the 20s in October. Data for October 28, 1976 through October 28, 1976Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 16 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 17 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 18 CT DANBURY COOP 20 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 20 NY CARMEL COOP 20 CT WESTBROOK COOP 20 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 20 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 21 NY SCARSDALE COOP 21 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 22 NY WEST POINT COOP 22 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 23 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 23 NY SUFFERN COOP 23 CT GROTON COOP 24 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 24 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 24 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 24 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 24 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 25 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 25 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 25 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 26 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 26 NY MINEOLA COOP 27 NJ CRANFORD COOP 27 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 27 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 28 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 28 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 28 NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 28 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 29 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 29 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 29 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 29 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 29 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 29 Memorable cold winter followed. If I remember correctly after Hurricane Belle made a run up the east coast the pattern turned cool and steadily transitioned to cold as we moved through Fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 12z GFS gives us ZERO precip through the run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 2 hours ago, MANDA said: Memorable cold winter followed. If I remember correctly after Hurricane Belle made a run up the east coast the pattern turned cool and steadily transitioned to cold as we moved through Fall. Yeah, Aug 76 into Jan 77 was the last time we had something resembling a LIA late summer into winter. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending Aug to Jan avg temp 1 1918-01-31 46.8 0 2 1888-01-31 47.0 0 3 1881-01-31 47.1 0 4 1884-01-31 47.2 0 5 1977-01-31 47.8 0 6 1877-01-31 47.9 2 - 1872-01-31 47.9 0 7 1883-01-31 48.5 0 - 1873-01-31 48.5 0 8 1904-01-31 48.7 2 - 1893-01-31 48.7 0 9 1887-01-31 48.9 0 10 1875-01-31 49.1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 First frost of the season could be in store for our colder suburbs next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 8 Share Posted October 8 The region will see its coolest air so far this season this week. Tomorrow will be cooler and then a reinforcing shot of even chillier air will arrive on Wednesday. New York City could see its first temperature below 50° since May 13th on Thursday or Friday. On Wednesday evening, Hurricane Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast. The storm, which regained Category 5 status, will likely make landfall as a Category 3 and perhaps Category 4 hurricane. It will bring a devastating storm surge inland. There remains a risk that the heavily populated Tampa ara could face some of the hurricane's worst impacts. However, areas south of Tampa now appear to be at greatest risk. In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued but had begun to fade. As of 4 pm MST, Phoenix had reached 107°, which broke the daily record of 104° from 1987. Phoenix has now set or tied daily record highs on fifteen consecutive days. The heat will continue to fade over the next few days. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the dirsuptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +15.79 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.415 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Many places in the mid 40s already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Many places in the mid 40s already 55 and pleasant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Yesterday was the 2nd latest first 40s of the season at ISP. This was due to the record easterly flow keeping the minimums up in September. This surface pressure pattern is finally reversing allowing some NW flow with the cooler temps. Now that that big high over New England has relaxed for a while it will allow a SW to W flow warm up later in October which we didn’t see much of over the summer due to all the onshore flow. The expanding drought to our West could allow highs on a few days to approach 80° which is near record levels in late October on some days at Newark like we saw last October. First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2018 06-12 (2018) 48 10-12 (2018) 49 121 2024 05-13 (2024) 42 10-08 (2024) 47 147 2023 06-08 (2023) 47 10-08 (2023) 47 121 2015 05-23 (2015) 48 10-02 (2015) 49 131 2021 06-01 (2021) 49 10-01 (2021) 49 121 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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