October 2024

[Cyg]

4 hours ago, Dark Star said:

At least you didn't have to contend with summer traffic.  I could not imagine biking this roadway with cars passing you out.  They should have a wider shoulder, with a bike lane and preferably a rumble strip separating the lane.

Indeed. I'd never ride it during the in-season. They did right with Rt 35 after Sandy by adding a bike lane in both directions. 

[Dark Star]

26 minutes ago, Cyg said:

Indeed. I'd never ride it during the in-season. They did right with Rt 35 after Sandy by adding a bike lane in both directions. 

I had once asked Ocean County to widen the shoulder on Bayview Avenue between Ocean Gate and Veeder Lane in Bayville.  No response.  

[bluewave]

While these much lower dew points forecast for next week won’t help our dry pattern, at least it will really feel like fall.

[TJW014]

Could have some opportunities to see the northern lights in the upcoming days. First hit arrives this evening around midnight, then an even better chance from the largest flare since 2017 this weekend. 

[Santa Claus]

beautiful night

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 85 (2023)
NYC: 87 (1919)
LGA: 85 (2000)
JFK: 84 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 37 (1945)
NYC: 38 (1974)
LGA: 40 (1974)
JFK: 40 (2003)


Historical:


1780: A hurricane, which formed on October 1st, destroyed the port city of Savanna-la-Mar on the island of Jamaica on this day. By some estimates, this stormed caused 3,000 deaths. This storm is documented in the Jamaica Archives and Record Department. 

1841 - An October gale, the worst of record for Nantucket, MA, caught the Cap Cod fishing fleet at sea. Forty ships were driven ashore on Cape Cod, and 57 men perished from the town of Truro alone. Heavy snow fell inland, with 18 inches near Middletown, CT. (David Ludlum)

1903: An unusual late-season tornado moved northeast from west of Chatfield, Minnesota, passing through and devastating St. Charles, Minnesota. Seven people were killed, and 30 injured as 50 homes and businesses were damaged or destroyed.

1912 - The longest dry spell of record in the U.S. commenced as Bagdad, CA, went 767 days without rain. (David Ludlum)

1964 - Hurricane Hilda struck Louisiana spawning many tornadoes, and claimed twenty-two lives. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1979 - The first killer tornado of record in October in Connecticut destroyed sixteen vintage aircraft at the Bradley Air Museum in Windsor Locks. The tornado damaged more than one hundred homes causing 200 million dollars damage. Three persons were killed, and 500 others were injured. (The Weather Channel)

1979: An F4 tornado struck the towns of Windsor, Windsor Locks, and Suffield in Connecticut, causing an estimated $400 million in property damage, on this day. The New England Air Museum, which housed more than 20 vintage aircraft, was destroyed. This tornado also caused a United Airlines flight to abort a landing at the Bradley International Airport because the pilot saw the tornado.

1986 - Remnants of Hurricane Paine deluged Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas with 6 to 10 inch overnight rains. Hardy, OK, was drenched with 21.79 inches. Heavy rain between September 26th and October 4th caused 350 million dollars damage in Oklahoma. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Twenty-five cities in the Upper Midwest, including ten in Iowa, reported record low temperatures for the date. Duluth MN, Eau Claire, WI, and Spencer, IA, dipped to 24 degrees. Temperatures warmed into the 80s in the Northern and Central High Plains Region. At Chadron, NE, the mercury soared from a morning low of 29 degrees to an afternoon high of 88 degrees. Temperatures soared above 100 degrees in southern California. The high of 108 degrees at Downtown Los Angeles was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Cold Canadian air invaded the north central U.S. bringing an end to the growing season across those states. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southwestern U.S. Phoenix, AZ, reported a record high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Mississippi Valley. A dozen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck, ND, and Williston, ND, with readings of 16 degrees above zero. An upper level weather disturbance brought snow to parts of Idaho, Wyoming and Montana, with five inches reported at West Yellowstone, MT. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

2002: Hurricane Lili made landfall between White Lake and Vermilion Bay, Louisiana as a Category 1 storm.

2015: Unprecedented rainfall fell throughout South Carolina from October 1st — 5th, 2015. Storm total amounts greater than 20" were observed in Columbia and Sumter.

 

2017: The City of Houston had the wettest year on record with 73.51 inches. The previous wettest year was in 1900 when 72.86 inches were measured.

[donsutherland1]

It will likely turn somewhat milder for tomorrow and Saturday. Temperatures will top out generally in the lower and perhaps middle 70s. Cooler air could arrive Sunday and then again early next week with the coolest air so far this season moving into the region.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. Numerous locations including Fresno, Hanford, and Stockton tied or broke October monthly records. Phoenix reached 109°. Needles reached 110° for the 80th time this year, breaking the record of 79 days from 1924. The extreme heat will persist into the weekend.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -5.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.078 today.

 

[bluewave]

Models coming in stronger next week with the dew point drop. Now indicating dews possibly dropping below freezing. This will really make it feel like fall but will probably increase the dry pattern further.

 

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models coming in stronger next week with the dew point drop. Now indicating dews possibly dropping below freezing. This will really make it feel like fall but will probably increase the dry pattern further.

 

The dry pattern has been quite impressive. With the exception of a couple of minor precipitation events the pattern has been very quiet overall since very late August and that looks like it will probably continue for at least the next 10-14 days. This time of year things can change in a hurry though so I guess we’ll see what happens. 

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models coming in stronger next week with the dew point drop. Now indicating dews possibly dropping below freezing. This will really make it feel like fall but will probably increase the dry pattern further.

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models coming in stronger next week with the dew point drop. Now indicating dews possibly dropping below freezing. This will really make it feel like fall but will probably increase the dry pattern further.

 

The dews have been noticeable, clearly nothing like when it is the upper 60s and 70s but still dewey with dews consistently in the 50s to low 60s. Dews below 50 this weekend will feel great even if they don’t get down to the 30s next week. 55/54 with light fog here currently.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

A bunch of spots under .50 since August 20th.

 

NY

MONTAUK AIRPORT

WBAN

0.19

 

NY	WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.28
NJ	CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.29
NY	BELLMORE 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.29
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.30
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	0.30

 

NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.43
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.43
NY	SHIRLEY 2.9 N	CoCoRaHS	0.43
NJ	VERONA TWP 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	0.44
CT	CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.44
CT	OLD LYME 3.4 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.44
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	0.45
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.46

 

PA	PHILADELPHIA 2.1 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.13
NJ	HAMMONTON 1.9 S	CoCoRaHS	0.13
NJ	EWING TWP 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.13
PA	PHILADELPHIA 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	0.14
NJ	WEST DEPTFORD TWP 1.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.14
NJ	PITTSGROVE TWP 1.9 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.14
PA	GREEN LANE 1.7 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
NJ	DENNIS TWP 2.5 S	CoCoRaHS	0.15
PA	CHURCHVILLE 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.15
PA	SPRINGFIELD 0.1 NNW	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	HAMILTON TWP 4.5 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	EAST WINDSOR TWP 1.6 W	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	TOMS RIVER TWP 3.6 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	JACKSON TWP 4.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.16
DE	LEWES	COOP	0.17
NJ	HAMMONTON 3.3 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.17
NJ	MONROE TWP 0.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	0.17
NJ	UNION TWP 1.2 SW	CoCoRaHS	0.17
NJ	METUCHEN 0.5 E	CoCoRaHS	0.17
PA	ARDMORE 0.5 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NJ	EGG HARBOR CITY 3.6 SW	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NJ	MONROE TWP 1.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NJ	BEACHWOOD 0.7 S	CoCoRaHS	0.18
PA	PERKASIE 1.6 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NJ	MEDFORD LAKES 0.6 W	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NJ	WINSLOW TWP 5.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NJ	PRINCETON 1.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.19

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A bunch of spots under .50 since August 20th.

 

NY

MONTAUK AIRPORT

WBAN

0.19

 

NY	WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.28
NJ	CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.29
NY	BELLMORE 0.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.29
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.30
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	0.30

 

NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.43
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.43
NY	SHIRLEY 2.9 N	CoCoRaHS	0.43
NJ	VERONA TWP 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	0.44
CT	CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.44
CT	OLD LYME 3.4 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.44
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	0.45
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.46

 

PA	PHILADELPHIA 2.1 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.13
NJ	HAMMONTON 1.9 S	CoCoRaHS	0.13
NJ	EWING TWP 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.13
PA	PHILADELPHIA 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	0.14
NJ	WEST DEPTFORD TWP 1.9 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.14
NJ	PITTSGROVE TWP 1.9 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.14
PA	GREEN LANE 1.7 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
NJ	DENNIS TWP 2.5 S	CoCoRaHS	0.15
PA	CHURCHVILLE 0.3 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.15
PA	SPRINGFIELD 0.1 NNW	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	HAMILTON TWP 4.5 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	EAST WINDSOR TWP 1.6 W	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	TOMS RIVER TWP 3.6 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.16
NJ	JACKSON TWP 4.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.16
DE	LEWES	COOP	0.17
NJ	HAMMONTON 3.3 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.17
NJ	MONROE TWP 0.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	0.17
NJ	UNION TWP 1.2 SW	CoCoRaHS	0.17
NJ	METUCHEN 0.5 E	CoCoRaHS	0.17
PA	ARDMORE 0.5 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NJ	EGG HARBOR CITY 3.6 SW	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NJ	MONROE TWP 1.8 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NJ	BEACHWOOD 0.7 S	CoCoRaHS	0.18
PA	PERKASIE 1.6 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NJ	MEDFORD LAKES 0.6 W	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NJ	WINSLOW TWP 5.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NJ	PRINCETON 1.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.19

Not surprising seeing wantagh as the driest spot. Definitely a micro climate dry spot on the south shore of nassua during convection season. Jones beach takes it even further, it looks like a brown waste land their currently. 

[SACRUS]

 

72 / 60 partly to mostly cloudy.  Warmer today through Sunday.  Some light rain showers Monday monring.  Cooler 10/8 - 10/11 before warming around 10/12 13.  A bit of back and forth.

 

[winterwx21]

Looking forward to the cool crisp weather next week with dewpoints in the 30s. It's going to be great weather for bow hunting. 

I wish we could get some rain though. Hardly anything in sight ... just the round of showers late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Maybe a tenth to a quarter of an inch with that? That might even be generous. Wouldn't be surprising to see that dry up with our area getting less than a tenth of an inch. Lots of watering will continue to be needed as we move through the late part of the growing season. 

[steve392]

These warmer days are finally belong my reseeding of my grass. Finally got germination.  Gorgeous out at 75 degrees. 

[winterwx21]

78 degrees here. Beautiful warm day. 

[MJO812]

Florida in the crosshairs again for a hurricane.

[EWR757]

An evening paddle on Cranberry Lake, Byram, NJ.  

[psv88]

75 today. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be warm for the season. A shower is possible. The temperature will top out in the lower and middle 70s. It will turn somewhat cooler on Sunday. Monday could see some showers as a strong cold front crosses the region. In its wake, the region will see its coolest air so far this season.

In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. As of 2 pm MST, Tucson had reached 106°, which broke that city's October record of 105° that had been set on October 1. Phoenix had reached 108°, surpassing the old October monthly record for the fourth consecutive day. The extreme heat will persist into early next week.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall.

The SOI was -5.61 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.421 today.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 89 (2013)
NYC: 88 (1941)
LGA: 86 (2013)
JFK: 84 (1967)


Lows:

EWR: 33 (1945)
NYC: 37 (1888)
LGA: 38 (1945)
JFK 39 (1996)

Historical:
 

1777 - The Battle of Germantown was fought in a morning fog that grew more dense with the smoke of battle, causing great confusion. Americans firing at each other contributed to the loss of the battle. (David Ludlum)

1869 - A great storm struck New England. The storm reportedly was predicted twelve months in advance by a British officer named Saxby. Heavy rains and high floods plagued all of New England, with strong winds and high tides over New Hampshire and Maine. Canton CT was deluged with 12.35 inches of rain. (David Ludlum)

 

1957: The world's first artificial satellite, Sputnik, was launched on October 4th, 1857 by the Soviet Union. Sputnik was about the size of a beach ball and weighed 183.9 pounds. It took about 98 minutes to orbit Earth on an elliptical path. 

1969 - Denver, CO, received 9.6 inches of snow. October of that year proved to be the coldest and snowiest of record for Denver, with a total snowfall for the month of 31.2 inches. (Weather Channel)

1986 - Excessive flooding was reported along the Mississippi River and all over the Midwest, from Ohio to the Milk River in Montana. In some places it was the worst flooding of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - A storm brought record snows to the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at North Springfield VT. It was the earliest snow of record for some locations. The storm claimed 17 lives in central New York State, injured 332 persons, and in Vermont caused seventeen million dollars damage. The six inch snow at Albany NY was their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Southern California continued to "shake and bake". An earthquake was reported during the morning, the second in a matter of days, and during the afternoon temperatures soared well above 100 degrees. Highs of 100 degrees at San Francisco, and 108 degrees at Los Angeles and Santa Maria, were October records. San Luis Obispo was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 111 degrees. (The National Weather Summary).

1987: A storm brought record snows to the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals ranged up to 21 inches at North Springfield, VT. It was the earliest snow of record for some locations. The storm claimed 17 lives in central New York State, injured 332 persons, and in Vermont caused seventeen million dollars damage. The six-inch snow at Albany, NY, was their earliest measurable snow in 117 years of records.

1988 - Temperatures dipped below freezing in the north central U.S. Five cities in North Dakota and Nebraska reported record low temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 17 degrees above zero. Low pressure brought snow and sleet to parts of Upper Michigan. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the north central U.S., with freezing temperatures reported across much of the area from eastern North Dakota to Michigan and northwest Ohio. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint Cloud MN, which was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 19 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2013: While western South Dakota was dealing with a crippling blizzard, the tri-state region of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa saw several tornadoes, including an EF-4. This violent tornado started 2 miles southwest of Climbing Hill, Iowa, flattening corn crops and snapping tree trunks. As the tornado moved northeast, it intensified and struck a farmstead approximately 5 miles west-northwest of Correctionville, Iowa. Sheds and other buildings were severely damaged or destroyed, with the residence being severely damaged. The tornado continued to increase in both size and magnitude as it continued on its trek northeast. The tornado reached its maximum intensity 2.5 miles south of Pierson, Iowa, when this mile-wide tornado struck two farmsteads. Numerous outbuildings and barns were destroyed, with farm equipment being tossed over 400 yards. It was here that the tornado was rated EF-4. The tornado stayed southeast of Pierson, Iowa, and to the west of Washta, Iowa. Before lifting, the tornado produced more tree damage and downed power poles and lines 2 miles west of Washta, Iowa.

[Allsnow]

Looks like we will miss the moisture from another gulf hurricane next week 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like we will miss the moisture from another gulf hurricane next week 

That's okay

Mother Nature is saving all the moisture for winter.

[IrishRob17]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's okay

Mother Nature is saving all the moisture for winter.

Winter rains are the worst. 

[wdrag]

Nothing to do with todays weather here... but in response to Helene flooding, Ben Noll produced this recent historical PW graphic, for future general reference.  Presuming the overall ever warming world continues, these PW MAX values will increase.

I already am on alert when PW exceeds 1.75",  and occasionally we'll get up to 2.5 but a 3" for more than a few hours would be more than alarming. Here's the graphic... reliable resource. Just thought the share would be worthy to store away in the recesses of our references.  Have an enjoyable two weeks up here. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like we will miss the moisture from another gulf hurricane next week 

I could see a scenario where trough lifts out and storm gets stuck off the SE coast for a couple days until next trough picks it up. 

Still not sure if that would produce though 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's okay

Mother Nature is saving all the moisture for winter.

It is feast or famine. When the dryness breaks, it'll break hard. 

[SACRUS]

62 / 60 clear.    Nice weekend on tap.  Outside of some morning / early afternoon showers/ light rain on monday it is a dry 7 days ahead.  Cooler 10/8 - 10/11, warmer 10/12 - 10/14, then cooler again. A bit of back and forth overall normal and dry.  What can be Milton will target the Florida Gulf coast Thu - Fri.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Milton eyes Florida west coast this week -?