Rtd208 Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 missing: autumn 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: missing: autumn September was supposed to be warm..Take it with a grain of salt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 62 / 58 light drizzle. 7 day total of 0.51 in the bucket off of 161 hours of clouds. Perhaps a brief break in the clouds for sunset tomorrow then cloudy again Tue - Wed. Sunshine should return Thu and next weekend. Trough builds in between the 7 / 8. Perhaps the chilliest air of the season between the 9 - 15 before a later month warmup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 19 hours ago, WX-PA said: September was supposed to be warm..Take it with a grain of salt. It was Warm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 5 hours ago, qg_omega said: It was Warm Almost dead nuts normal to slightly below. Early start for you this year. We will likely be riding the omega train this winter though. This is your time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 29 Share Posted September 29 1 hour ago, cleetussnow said: Almost dead nuts normal to slightly below. Early start for you this year. We will likely be riding the omega train this winter though. This is your time. Dead nuts normal is still warm considering what normal is now. 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 Bluewave just posted the numbers in the September thread; seems to be normal compared to the 30 year average. Isn’t that how we judge temp anomalies? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: Bluewave just posted the numbers in the September thread; seems to be normal compared to the 30 year average. Isn’t that how we judge temp anomalies? Temp anomalies are not the same as warm v cool. The warmer the averages get, the warmer an average month is…So yes, with the higher averages, an average month is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 15 hours ago, Rjay said: Dead nuts normal is still warm considering what normal is now. When do you drop saying this? Were people still saying this in 2019 before we moved the 30 year average? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: Bluewave just posted the numbers in the September thread; seems to be normal compared to the 30 year average. Isn’t that how we judge temp anomalies? People like living in the past 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 1 hour ago, FPizz said: When do you drop saying this? Were people still saying this in 2019 before we moved the 30 year average? The averages were a lot lower then…I am not sure why this annoys you so much. Average temps are warmer, so an average month is still warm… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 This is just shy of the 9th/10th when some runs have had a upper low and coastal in the area, but we'll see if it maintains dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: This is just shy of the 9th/10th when some runs have had a upper low and coastal in the area, but we'll see if it maintains dry Euro is next Tuesday. Let's see. It's always a week away lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 30 Share Posted September 30 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro is next Tuesday. Let's see. It's always a week away lately Euro has nothing today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 10 hours ago, psv88 said: The averages were a lot lower then…I am not sure why this annoys you so much. Average temps are warmer, so an average month is still warm… The point is warmer compared to what? The underlying argument is always AGW v. natural variability. If we use an older baseline for temps, then I’m not sure anomalies matter as much as raw data. The Washington Post article, for what it’s worth, seems to highlight the historical average temps were much higher in geological times. Should we compare our current temps against that? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said: The point is warmer compared to what? The underlying argument is always AGW v. natural variability. If we use an older baseline for temps, then I’m not sure anomalies matter as much as raw data. The Washington Post article, for what it’s worth, seems to highlight the historical average temps were much higher in geological times. Should we compare our current temps against that? You are all over the map. One poster mentions that it was still “warm” and all the climate deniers get triggered. Spiral away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 55 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: The point is warmer compared to what? The underlying argument is always AGW v. natural variability. If we use an older baseline for temps, then I’m not sure anomalies matter as much as raw data. The Washington Post article, for what it’s worth, seems to highlight the historical average temps were much higher in geological times. Should we compare our current temps against that? To me, it just becomes a moot point to keep looking back and seeing how a single month compares to an older aggregate data set. I could understand looking at trends to see how September has changed from 1971-2000, 1981-2010, etc. But overall, the rolling 30 year normals that update every 10 years are meant to smooth the outliers and extremes to give us a more "up to date" idea of what the climate is doing. So even if say Septmeber 2012 and 2015 were extremely warm, that will still be accounted for in the 1991-2020, 2001-2030, and 2011-2040 sets, which gives us a more consistent baseline. My point is, I think we all agree that this September would have had a more positive anomaly if we were to compare it against an older set of normals. But unless we petition for the NWS to switch the way they do things, looking at the newer data we have, it was an average, if not slightly below month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 10 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: The point is warmer compared to what? The underlying argument is always AGW v. natural variability. If we use an older baseline for temps, then I’m not sure anomalies matter as much as raw data. The Washington Post article, for what it’s worth, seems to highlight the historical average temps were much higher in geological times. Should we compare our current temps against that? As someone who works on this stuff and teaches environmental science and sustainability at the college level, we can always talk about the much warmer past. Problem is, is modern life is adapted to our current climate. We are warming at a far faster rate except for a few mass extinction events of the past. The big difference is we are the ones adding greenhouse gasses. Without fossil fuels though we wouldn’t be here in the numbers we are. However, while climate change is a huge issue, perhaps an even bigger issue is the biodiversity crisis. Further, we are bound by physics and chemistry laws. Hence, as CO2 increases in the atmosphere, some will go into solution in the oceans, acidifying it. This is on-going. At around and atmospheric level of 700-750ppm of CO2, most corals would no longer be able to grow, leading to catastrophic collapse. Humans are very adaptable, but we have to continue to develop the future technology. So yes, we are warming faster than we would sans fossil fuels, but we also need fossil fuels to power out life and lifestyle until better alternatives come (which is happening at a rapid rate). But we cannot ignore issues and just say oh well it is warmer in the past. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 62 / 55 clouds still as the cut off UL slowly begins to exit stage right. Sunnier later Wed and Thu -Sunday. Fri the warmest near / low 80s , and likely wont see that till next march. Cooler by the 7th. SOme sustained support for a storm between the 8-9 next week for next meaningful rain chance. Chill 10/11 - 10/15 as trough sets up east - coolest of the season so far. Likely a warmer close to the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Back to weather. The GFS has under a half inch through mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Records: Highs: EWR: 85 (1986) NYC: 88 (1927) LGA: 87 (1950) JFK: 85 (1986) Lows; EWR: 35 (1947) * very cold fall that year 1947 NYC: 36 (1947) LGA: 39 (1947) JFK: 41 (1992) Historical: 1752 - The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon Island disappeared. (David Ludlum) 1890: The weather service is first identified as a civilian agency when Congress, at the request of President Benjamin Harrison, passes an act transferring the Signal Service’s meteorological responsibilities to the newly-created U.S. Weather Bureau in the Department of Agriculture. 1893 - The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum) 1893: On this day, the village of Caminadaville, Louisiana, was destroyed by a massive hurricane. Caminadaville was a vibrant fishing community in the late 19th century, located on Cheniere Caminada, adjacent to Grand Isle in coastal Jefferson Parish in Louisiana. It took five days for the news of this devastating hurricane to reach New Orleans. 1938: Grannis and Okay, Arkansas set an all-time high-temperature record for October for Arkansas with 105 degrees. 1958: NASA officially begins operations on October 1st, 1958. 1977: While an F3 tornado traveled less than one-mile through Montfort Heights or the greater Cincinnati area, it destroyed 12 homes and damaged 15 others. There were 17 injuries. 1987 - A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90 degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie, GA, killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured one person north of Graceville, FL, and two persons at Bartow, GA. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Spotty drizzle and showers as the UL meanders slowly east. Days of clouds are coming to and end later tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Another beautiful day, 70 degrees. LFGM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Probably one of the driest starts to October for the CONUS away from the Gulf area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with temperatures reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s. It will likely turn somewhat milder for Friday and Saturday. Cooler air could arrive Sunday with the coolest air so far this season arriving early next week. In the Southwest and parts of California, near record and record heat continued. October opened with a host of monthly record high temperatures being tied or broken. As of 5 pm EDT, monthly records included Palm Springs: 116° (tied monthly mark); Phoenix: 111° (old record: 107°); and Tucson: 105° (old record: 103°). The extreme heat will persist into the weekend. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the September run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was +6.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.472 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 1 Share Posted October 1 Climate prediction center has our area with below normal temperatures for the next 6-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 20 minutes ago, lee59 said: Climate prediction center has our area with below normal temperatures for the next 6-10 days. I think it's days 6 to 10. Well be above normal the next few (Thursday thru Sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 perfect night. bugs are loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 2 Share Posted October 2 68 today. Chilly night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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