Digital Snow Thread Winter 2024-2025

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Is it sad I would consider this a complete win for the pattern we're getting?

No - that's a good storm for this area. @donsutherland1did his whole analysis - we don't get a ~6" storm in January often. Would be bummed to miss this one, but not bummed enough to not vacation.

Starting to get pretty down about the chances of anything before Jan 7. May just have to take my lumps.

[Ji]

How is this thread dead but the panic room is active

[NorthArlington101]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I'm going to provide some background on what I mentioned about January. What is being advertised on model guidance is bordering on historical precedence when it comes to the potential Arctic outbreak over the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS. There will likely be several shortwaves migrating through the flow that some sneaky light events could pop up on the proverbial radar that are not yet known, coupled with the more organized storm chances. There will be snow squall type activity that also would be available during the sharper Arctic air intrusions across portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast that will come into picture as we get closer. Strong Arctic boundaries provide modest amounts of instability and one thing we have learned from past cold outbreaks is a fresh injection of Arctic air is usually accompanied by significant low level lapse rates and mid-level ascent that would allow for opportunities of significant squall potential that could reach our latitude. 

The pattern will be complex in nature. Anytime you get a progressive northern stream involved, it will be tough for NWP to know specifics at range, so tread lightly with absolute declarations 5+ days out. Changes can occur and will likely have shifts to potential organized precip regimes up until game time. We know how it rolls around here. 

The big dog potential is real....but it is not set in stone. There's opportunity for nothing major in this pattern. Timing of disturbances and the phasing process/potential will be critical for the opportunities over the course of the pattern evolution. Messy phases or off timing could skunk us and leave us cold and dry for a majority of the outbreak. That is something I want to preach to people who are banking on a lot of snow. This is an intricate situation that has high reward AND bust potential in the snow/ice department. The one thing we are gaining a lot of confidence on is the duration of the cold and the sustainability of the pattern being opportunistic for multiple weeks, perhaps lingering into the back half of the month. That's why I say people might not understand the gravity of what is to come. I remain optimistic we will see snow, cautiously optimistic on something significant, and very confident on the duration of the cold. The magnitude of the cold is gaining traction that this will be the coldest spell in terms of both duration and magnitude since the extended cold outbreak of 2017 and potentially on par with some of the better Arctic intrusions the past 30 years. 

For those that are not super well versed on pattern evolution and NWP breakdowns, I HIGHLY suggest sitting back and taking notes, asking questions, and learning while others more versed interject. I did this for years, including while I was in college studying this stuff and it has paid off dividends. 

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

I feel like this post should be memorialized somewhere 

[NorthArlington101]

06z GFS for 1/10-1/11

[WxUSAF]

If weekly control snow maps are you thing, have I got one for you (shamelessly stolen from Twitter)

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If weekly control snow maps are you thing, have I got one for you (shamelessly stolen from Twitter)

Control says we cook through mid-Feb. Funny enough none of it is in the next 2 weeks 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Control says we cook through mid-Feb. Funny enough none of it is in the next 2 weeks 

Probably because Euro weeklies are AN precip for weeks 5 and 6 from Mid Atlantic thru NE with normal temps week 5 and slightly AN week 6.

Week 4 has normal precip with BN temps which Probably add to the totals.

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If weekly control snow maps are you thing, have I got one for you (shamelessly stolen from Twitter)

There's never any shame in doing what you have to do to post snowfall maps.

[SnowenOutThere]

39 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Control says we cook through mid-Feb. Funny enough none of it is in the next 2 weeks 

Could you imagine the state of this place if this is the reality? I fear some of our posters may not make it past next week at this rate. 

[Weather Will]

Latest EPS extended control...and the mean is not shabby...