understudyhero Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 9 hours ago, CAPE said: Looking forward to a max half inch of gentle rain and periods of drizzle over the next 4 days. Good for the new grass. I just realized the lawn crew fertilized our yard last week. By Monday this will be a jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Tornado warning down by Roanoke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Simulated reflectivities Friday don't look particularly impressive, but we'll be in a high PW environment for a chunk of the day, so some over performing rainfall totals are certainly on the table. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 72/71 in OC at 1a. So muggy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Radar looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 FXUS61 KLWX 270759 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Helene has made landfall along the northeastern Gulf Coast overnight, and is expected to quickly move into the southern Appalachians and Tennessee River Valley today into the weekend. Widespread rain is possible today, especially across parts of Central Virginia. Chances for rain will linger into early next week as an upper low remains overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida this evening. This storm has a forward propagation speed of nearly 25 kts.. which is near the upper percentile for tropical cyclones. The upstream trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley is pulling the cyclone quickly northward. The center is already well into Georgia as of 03 AM with the outer rainbands making it into Virginia thanks to jet support/WAA. Through the day today, the remnants of Helene will continue to move northward, but get pulled west slightly towards the trough. Other than another day of cloudcover and highs in the 70s, Helene will bring several hazards to the area: - Heavy rain threat... Given the tropical airmass with PW values well above climo norms for late September (~1.5-2.2"), repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain are expected today. The greatest coverage will be across a line from roughly Highland County, VA to Albemarle County, VA this morning. By this afternoon and into this evening, a broken line of showers/thunderstorms or several lines may develop, but coverage should be more scattered in nature. Given the SE`ly fetch off the Atlantic, abundant moisture is upsloping into the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. The higher terrain of these locations have the greatest potential for Flash Flooding (especially where recent rains have exceeded 2-4"). Another 2-4" look possible across the higher terrain of the watch area through this evening. Have maintained the Flood Watch for these locales. Further north and east, less forcing exists and lesser amounts of rain are expected. - Strong Winds...The remnant wind field with Helene is extensive. As of 3 AM mesonets across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge are already gusting to 20-30 mph. As the remnants move north through the morning and afternoon, the winds will increase across the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. A core of 40-60 kts of wind at H85 is forecast across central VA that pivots into the Ohio Valley. There is a good amount of disagreement between models on how far northeast these winds make it into the local forecast area, especially at lower elevations. Have expanded the Wind Advisory in coordination with PBZ to our common border. Bufkit profiles suggest 40-45 kts should mix down around 2500 ft, with 45-50 kts closer to 3500/4000 ft. There is a better signal for downsloping west of the Alleghenies, but northwestern Garrett County could downslope as well directly west of Keysers Ridge towards Friendsville. The saturated ground will likely allow for trees to fall as well. Across the lower elevations and metros, gusts to 20-30 kts are possible. - Severe Potential (including tornadoes)... By this afternoon, a broken line or broken lines of showers/thunderstorms are possible. The best overlap in instability/shear/SRH is across central VA. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) that is tornado driven (2%). The further north into the forecast area, there is less instability. However, in tropical environments it does not take much instability. The one limiting factor is the forcing is definitely better closer to the center which is forecast to track well to the west. The region will reside in a tropical airmass tonight with lows only falling into the upper 60s in the metros with upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge. Dew points will be near the air temp, so fog formation appears rather likely. Rain chances look to be low overnight with PWs actually decreasing heading into Saturday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 WB 6Z EURO through Monday evening and still raining.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 34 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO through Monday evening and still raining.... How often is the Euro correct any more ? Last storm predicted 2 inches of rain across DE. and nothing at most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 5 minutes ago, frd said: How often is the Euro correct any more ? Last storm predicted 2 inches of rain across DE. and nothing at most locations. Other WB depictions of models are showing rain too...at this point just happy to see the soil stay moist for my new grass coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 13 minutes ago, frd said: How often is the Euro correct any more ? Last storm predicted 2 inches of rain across DE. and nothing at most locations. It actually was among the best for my area. GFS was terrible. The primary issue lately is the atmospheric blocking pattern and how far north/east significant precip can make it. Your area has just been a bit too far NE. The situation is similar for the remnants of Helene. Overnight into tomorrow appears to be the best window, but forcing overall looks pretty weak over this way and points NE. A half inch is probably the upside here through tomorrow. We shall see beyond that as the low weakens and makes its way toward the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 37 minutes ago, frd said: How often is the Euro correct any more ? Last storm predicted 2 inches of rain across DE. and nothing at most locations. That was when we were in a drought and needed rain. Now that we're all getting sick of gloom and rain the euro is bound to verify when predicting more. If anything the amounts will over-verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 9 minutes ago, IronTy said: That was when we were in a drought and needed rain. Now that we're all getting sick of gloom and rain the euro is bound to verify when predicting more. If anything the amounts will over-verify. Still in a drought here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Gettin pretty nautical down here in Penhook. Def some gusts in the 30s last hour. Under a wind adv and flood/spinny watch. Mentions of landslides in the AFD. Lol. If things really start to rip I'll head over to sm mtn lake and get some pics. I'll be careful with the storm surge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gettin pretty nautical down here in Penhook. Def some gusts in the 30s last hour. Under a wind adv and flood/spinny watch. Mentions of landslides in the AFD. Lol. If things really start to rip I'll head over to sm mtn lake and get some pics. I'll be careful with the storm surge Congrats on your move. I didn't know you moved from Gaithersburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 19 minutes ago, Interstate said: Congrats on your move. I didn't know you moved from Gaithersburg Thanks man! We absolutely love it down here. Feel completely at home and the people are wonderful. Need to change lanes? Oh, just use a blinker. Need to pull out in "traffic"?... first person that can make a space does with a wave. Loading lumber alone at the yard? Employees and customers together come over and help and there is no saying "no". After many decades in DC metro, you forget that the vast majority of people out there are truly kind and helpful. Sad but true for me. It's getting kinda hairy down here honestly. Flickering lights and long drawn out gusts last 30 mins. If it gets to damage level I'll take a vid and upload it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 Meso out for heavy rain and flash flood potential between Roanoke and Charlottesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Meso out for heavy rain and flash flood potential between Roanoke and Charlottesville Getting the first real tropical like band here now in Waynesboro, up to .76 on the day now... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 4 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: Getting the first real tropical like band here now in Waynesboro, up to .76 on the day now... Had an easterly gust to 28 in a moderate squall about 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Kind of looks like on radar the center circulation wobbled a bit farther north than expected near the SW Virginia border b4 the NW move.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 any chance that heavy stuff near and to the west of Richmond might make it up into the DC metro area if it continues to move N or NNE this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 any chance that heavy stuff near and to the west of Richmond might make it up into the DC metro area if it continues to move N or NNE this afternoon?Pass. Have a Potomac River booze cruise tonight. I’m okay with drizzle… not so much the wrath of Helene 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Getting absolutely hosed in Charlottesville. Flood warning up through 7pm. Winds are notable as well, ~15G25 since this band arrived about an hr ago. very tropical out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Been raining most of the day at Deep Creek. Breezy with gusts near 40 mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 wow. stronger winds mixing down with these spotty showers moving through. was not expecting this much wind here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Convective elements should be rolling through the DC metro area early this evening. While surface-based instability should be negligible, the low-level shear will be very strong with impressive hodographs. I can't rule out a very brief spin-up, or at least a tornado warning or two necessitated by modest storm rotation, although the chances of reaching the ground are likely small unless the surfaced-based instability is slightly higher than progged. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 3 hours ago, batmanbrad said: any chance that heavy stuff near and to the west of Richmond might make it up into the DC metro area if it continues to move N or NNE this afternoon? It looks like that stuff down near Richmond is moving NNE, which is surprising. I thought it would be moving N or NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Radar is so interesting now. One blob of rain to our east moving NNE and another to our west moving NNW, and here we are stuck in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Cloudy with spotty drizzle here for days. No rain of significance. Less than a tenth. Radar doesn't look too encouraging for tonight. Even the modest quarter to half inch forecast would seem a longshot at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Cloudy with spotty drizzle here for days. No rain of significance. Less than a tenth. Radar doesn't look too encouraging for tonight. Even the modest quarter to half inch forecast would seem a longshot at this point. I'm hopeful for some beneficial rains on Sunday/Monday as the closed low opens up and swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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