October 2024 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Oct 1st 

 

wxdude64 entry is in Sep contest thread. 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.5           1.0      1.0           1.0       2.0      2.0        0.5       1.0        0.5 

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA:  + 1.8

NYC:  + 1.9

BOS:  +1.8

ORD:   + 1.3

ATL:    + 1.4

IAH:    + 1.8

DEN:   + 2.2

PHX:   + 2.3

SEA:    + 0.7

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.0           1.0      1.0           1.5       1.0      2.3       2.7       2.5        1.3

 

 

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.3       0.5        0.5         1.8        -0.2    1.0         5.0       5.5        1.5 

[bkviking]

 

DCA:  + 0.8

NYC:  + 0.8

BOS:  +0.8

ORD:   + 1.0

ATL:    + 0.6

IAH:    + 1.5

DEN:   + 2.5

PHX:   + 2.0

SEA:    + 1.1

 

[Tom]

DCA:  + 1.3

NYC:  + 1.4

BOS:  +1.4

ORD:   + 0.6

ATL:    + 0.7

IAH:    + 0.9

DEN:   + 1.4

PHX:   + 1.3

SEA:    + 0.6

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.3        1.5        1.5          2.5       -0.1      2.8        4.2       2.8       -0.3 

[Rjay]

DCA:  + 0.8

NYC:  + 0.8

BOS:  +0.8

ORD:   + 2.3

ATL:    + 1.2

IAH:    + 2.0

DEN:   + 2.5

PHX:   + 2.0

SEA:    + 1.5

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

+.6      +.6       +.8     +1.5     +.8    +1      +2.1     +2.6    +1.4

I feel like I wanna go warmer on ORD and in the west but Ill hold off.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA:  +2.3

NYC:  +2.4

BOS:  +2.2

ORD:  +3.5

ATL:   +1.8

IAH:   +1.7

DEN:   +5.0

PHX:   +5.3

SEA:   +1.8

[Roger Smith]

wxdude64 posted in Sep contest:

Heading out of town for a couple weeks, here are my picks for October.

DCA:  -0.6

NYC:  +0.4

BOS:  +1.1

ORD:  -0.9

ATL:  -1.2

IAH:  -0.2

DEN:  -0.6

PHX:  +1.8

SEA:  -0.3

 

And my forecasts:

Roger S ___ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 __ +1.7 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ____ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.2

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for October 2024

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Stormchaser Chuck ___________ +2.3 _ +2.4 _ +2.2 __ +3.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.7 ___ +5.0 _ +5.3 _ +1.8

hudsonvalley21 ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +2.3 _ +0.7

Scotty Lightning ________________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

Tom ____________________________ +1.3 _ +1.4 _ +1.4 ___ +0.6 _ +0.7 _+0.9 __ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.6

wxallannj _______________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.3 __ +2.7 _ +2.5 _ +1.3

RJay ____________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +2.3 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5

___ Consensus _________________+0.8 _ +0.9 _ +0.9 __+1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.6 __+2.4 _ +2.3 _ +1.2

BKViking ________________________+0.8 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +1.0 _ +0.6 _ +1.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.1

so_whats_happening ___________ +0.6 _ +0.6 _+0.8 ___ +1.5 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +1.4

RodneyS ________________________+0.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +2.5 _ -0.1 _ +2.8 ___ +4.2 _ +2.8 _ -0.3

DonSutherland1 _________________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 __ +1.8 _ -0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +1.5

___ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Roger Smith ____________________ -0.5 _ -0.7 _ -0.9 ___ +1.7 _ +0.2 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.2

wxdude64 ______________________ -0.6 _ +0.4 _ +1.1 ___ -0.9 _ -1.2 _ -0.2 ____ -0.6 _ +1.8 _ -0.3 

_____________

___ Persistence (Sep 2024) _____ +0.1 _ -0.4 _ +0.3 ___ +4.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.2 ___ +5.2 _ +5.4 __ 0.0

===================================

warmest and coldest forecasts color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Anomalies and projections ...

_____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

_____ (anom Oct 1-17) ______ +0.3 _ +0.1 _ -0.9 ___ +3.0 _ +1.6 _ +3.7 ___+9.6 _+11.8 _ +0.6

_____ (p anom Oct 1-31) ____ +2.0 _ +2.0 _+1.0 ___ +3.5 _ +2.5 _ +3.5 ___ +4.0 _+6.0 __ 0.0

_____ (anom Oct 1-31) ______ +2.2 _ +3.0 _+1.7 ___ +5.7 _ +3.4 _ +4.8 ___ +8.0 _+7.1 _ +0.2

[Roger Smith]

 

Final Scoring for October 2024

based on end of October anomalies as posted above. 

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__ cent __ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL

Stormchaser Chuck ___________ 98 _ 88 _ 90 __ 276 _ 63 _ 68 _ 38 _169 _445 _ 70 _ 82 _ 68 __220 ___ 665

RodneyS _______________________ 62 _ 70 _ 96 __ 228 _ 43 _ 30 _ 60 _ 133 _ 361 _ 54 _ 35 _ 90 __179 ___ 540

hudsonvalley21 ________________ 92 _ 78 _ 98 __ 268 _ 19 _ 60 _ 40 _ 119 _ 387 _ 22 _ 25 _ 90 __ 137 ___ 524

DonSutherland1 ________________62 _ 50 _ 76 __ 188 _ 27 _ 28 _ 24 _ 079 _ 267 _ 70 _ 84 _ 74 __ 228 ___ 495

wxallannj ______________________ 76 _ 60 _ 86 __ 222 _ 23 _ 52 _ 50 _ 125 _ 347 _ 27 _ 29 _ 78 __ 134 ___ 481

Scotty Lightning _______________ 86 _ 60 _ 86 __ 232 _ 13 _ 72 _ 44 _ 129 _ 361 _ 05 _ 10 _ 94 __ 109 ___ 470

RJay ___________________________ 72 _ 56 _ 82 __ 210 _ 39 _ 56 _ 44 _ 139 _ 349 _ 25 _ 20 _ 74 __ 119 ___ 468

___ Consensus ________________72 _ 58 _ 84 __ 214 _ 23 _ 48 _ 36 _ 107 _ 321 _ 24 _ 25 _ 80 __ 129 ___ 450

Tom ___________________________ 82 _ 68 _ 94 __ 244 _ 06 _ 46 _ 22 _ 074 _ 318 _ 14 _ 13 _ 92 __ 119 ___ 437

BKViking _______________________72 _ 56 _ 82 __ 210 __ 13 _ 44 _ 34 _ 091 _ 301 _ 25 _ 20 _ 82 __ 127 ___ 428

so_whats_happening ___________68 _ 52 _ 82 __ 202 _ 23 _ 48 _ 24 _ 095 _ 297 _ 21 _ 31 _ 76 __ 128 ___ 425

Roger Smith ____________________46 _ 26 _ 48 __ 120 _ 27 _ 36 _ 24 _ 087 _ 207 _ 20 _ 23 _ 80 __ 123 ___ 330

wxdude64 ______________________44 _ 48 _ 88 __ 180 _ 00 _ 08 _ 00 _ 008 _ 188 _ 00 _ 18 _ 90 __ 108 ___ 296

___ Normal _____________________ 56 _ 40 _ 66 __ 162 _ 00 _ 32 _ 04 _ 036 _ 198_ 00 _ 00 _ 96 __ 096 ___ 294

_____________

___ Persistence (Sep 2024) _____ 58 _ 32 _ 72 __ 162 _ 79 _ 60 _ 48 _ 187 _ 349 _ 72 _ 85 _ 96 __ 253 ___ 602

==================================== 

Extreme Forecast Report

DCA (+2.2) and NYC (+3.0) are wins for high forecasts (StormchaserChuck) (+2.3, +2.4)

BOS (+1.7) is a win for hudsonvalley21 (+1.8) and a loss for StormchaserChuck (+2.3).

ORD (+5.7) is a win for high forecast StormchaserChuck (+3.5).

ATL (+3.4) is a win for high forecast Scotty Lightning (+2.0).

IAH (+4.8) is a win for high forecast RodneyS (+2.8).

DEN (+8.0) is a win for tied high forecasts StormchaserChuck (+5.0) and DonS (+5.0). 

PHX (+7.1) is also a win for high forecast DonS (+5.5).

SEA (+0.2) ... Scotty L (+0.5) gets a win and RodneyS, wxdude64 share a loss (-0.3) (Normal also gets a win).

---------------------------------------------

2024 scoring to follow ... 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Oct 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> 

 

wxallannj _______________ 754 _692 _760 __2206 __ 567 _752 _652 __1971 _4177 __597 _629 _750 _1976 ___ 6153

___ Consensus _________ 722 _694 _756 __2172 __ 551_718 _642 __ 1911 _4083 __522 _599_704 _1825 ___ 5908

DonSutherland1 _________720 _730 _774 __2224 __ 573 _638 _554 __1765 _3989 __632 _628 _580 _1840 ___ 5829

RJay ____________________ 728 _679 _670 __2077 __ 603 _719 _610 __1932 _4009 __543 _599 _627 __1769 ___ 5778

Scotty Lightning ________ 695 _607 _693 __1995 __ 437 _779 _713 __1929 _3924 __488 _533 _759 __1780 ___ 5704

so_whats_happening ___ 694 _672 _750 __2116 __ 542 _ 682 _574 __1798 _3914 __ 535 _525 _662 __1722 ___ 5636

hudsonvalley21 _________ 648 _572 _644 __1864 __ 557 _720 _686 __1963 _3827 __ 556 _527 _684 __1767 ___ 5594

Tom _____________________676 _620 _698 __1994 __ 450 _668 _596 __1714 _3708 __ 462 _535 _748 __1745 ___ 5453

Roger Smith _____________652 _608 _536 __1796 __ 561 _719 _550 __1830 _ 3626 __ 524 _669 _618 __ 1811 ___ 5437

rainsucks (9/10) ________ 733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 __ 1584 ___5409 (6010)

RodneyS ________________552 _684 _740 __1976 __ 416 _498 _618 __ 1532 _ 3508 __ 634 _439 _768 __1841 ___5349

BKViking (9/10) _________ 640 _588 _652 __1880 __ 422 _601 _539 __1562 _ 3442 __447 _ 531 _ 619 __1597 ___5039 (5599)

wxdude64 ______________ 463 _517 _663 __1643 __ 442 _479 _523 __1444 _ 3087 __465 _485 _727 __1677 ___4764 

---------------------  

 

Persistence _____________ 736 _654 _724 __2114 __439 _694 _578 __ 1711 _3825 _ 260 _609 _664 __1543 ___ 5368

Normal __________________522 _484 _614 __1620 __440 _528 _464 __1432 _3052 _ 398 _388 _822 __ 1608 ___4660

Stormchaser Chuck (7/10)_424_438_472__1334 __397 _388 _352 __1137 __2471 __322 _440 _416 __ 1178 ___ 3649 (5213)

Rhino16 (4/10) ___________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (5385)

George BM (1/10) _________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (5900)

pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal.

Persistence stayed well above Normal and is advancing into lower portion of forecaster group. 

-----------------------------------

 

Best forecasts

* tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) 

 

FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL 

wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 _____1 _May

___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ____ 0 

DonSutherland1 _________ 1 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 4 *___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____2 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 _____ 0 

RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2^ ____ 2 *____2 _ Mar, Sep

Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ____0 

so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____0 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 _____ 0 

Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0  

Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 2^ __ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 3^ ___1* ____3 ____ 3 _Apr,Jul,Aug

rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____ 1 _ Feb 

RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan

BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 

wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 _____ 0 

Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 

Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 1* ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 1 _ Oct

Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1  ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun

George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0

July NYC five tied, added to table ^  ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. 

RodneyS also DEN in July 

 

EXTREmE  FORECAST  REPORT 

so far, a total of 61 qualified (45 for warmest, 16 for coldest) ...

... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1

* tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct __ TOTAL __ adj for ties

rainsucks ________________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5

Scotty Lightning _________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 __9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0

Roger Smith ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0

RodneyS _________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1*__7-1 ___ 7.0 - 0.5

___ Normal _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 __7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0

hudsonvalley21 __________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0

Stormchaser Chuck ______0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 __ 6-3 ___ 5.0- 3.0

Rhino16 __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0

DonSutherland1 __________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0__ 5-0 ___ 4.5 - 0

wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0

wxdude64 _______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 *__ 4-1 ___ 4.0 - 0.5

RJay _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 4-2 ___ 3.5 - 2.0

BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-1

Tom, swh _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __ 0-0