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Hurricane Helene Banter


Windspeed
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Talk, it's only talk

Arguments, agreements

Advice, answers

Articulate announcements

It's only talk

Talk, it's only talk

Babble, burble, banter

Bicker, bicker, bicker

Brouhaha, balderdash, ballyhoo

It's only talk

Back talk

Talk talk talk

It's only talk

Comments, cliches, commentary, controversy

Chatter, chit-chat, chit-chat, chit-chat

Conversation, contradiction, criticism

It's only talk

Cheap talk

Talk, talk, it's only talk

Debates, discussions

These are words with a D this time

Dialog, duologue, diatribe

Dissention, declamation

Double talk, double talk

Talk, talk, it's all talk

Too much talk

Small talk

Talk that trash

Expressions, editorials

Explanations, exclamations, exaggerations

It's all talk

Elephant talk

Elephant talk

Elephant talk

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We got a pretty decent 20 minute band around 3 today here just outside of Tampa and been pretty quiet. I’m just expecting some isolated outer bands of pretty decent storms but being about 25 miles inland should be mostly non eventful. Storm surge seems like the biggest threat down in this area, gonna be crazy up in the big bend area. At least from my amateur eyes


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I am very very happy this is NOT going to hit Texas. That forward speed is going to be very bad for high damaging winds well inland.

If Helene were smashing into Corpus, I'd be running northwest as fast as I could, probably all the way to the OklaTex border, maybe with a detour to WinStar Casino.

We have been SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO fortunate this season. Every TC is smashing into New Orleans or well east.

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45 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Talk, it's only talk

Arguments, agreements

Advice, answers

Articulate announcements

It's only talk

Talk, it's only talk

Babble, burble, banter

Bicker, bicker, bicker

Brouhaha, balderdash, ballyhoo

It's only talk

Back talk

Talk talk talk

It's only talk

Comments, cliches, commentary, controversy

Chatter, chit-chat, chit-chat, chit-chat

Conversation, contradiction, criticism

It's only talk

Cheap talk

Talk, talk, it's only talk

Debates, discussions

These are words with a D this time

Dialog, duologue, diatribe

Dissention, declamation

Double talk, double talk

Talk, talk, it's all talk

Too much talk

Small talk

Talk that trash

Expressions, editorials

Explanations, exclamations, exaggerations

It's all talk

Elephant talk

Elephant talk

Elephant talk

 

That's a lot of talk.

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My worry with storms like this and it’s too early to completely cancel it and it will certainly be something for the big bend but in the Tampa (inland) area it has been a mad house of clearing shelves and running out of gas and shutting everything down and if nothing comes but a few rain showers than people will be more hesitant when we actually get a storm with inland impacts. I wish national mets and once with major audiences were more open to explaining the differences of what even just 5-10 miles inland can mean.


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Given all possible outcomes, Helene’s forecasted high forward speed and track into the armpit is possibly the best anyone here in the west coast Florida could have hoped for.  Hoping the next recon flights keep it pointed that way 

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The Fox weather wish casting and fear mongering has gotten as bad as TWC. They literally have a dude in a completely sunny and calm Tampa trying to tell us how bad it is and showing puddles talking about the storm surge moving in and showing a dead palm branch they probably came down weeks ago.


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Alberto (1994) dropped 24" rain in central GA. (near macon, severe flood damage)

Will post on main thread also ...
 

There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently  think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday.

For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall.  

40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? 

Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH.

 

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