Major Hurricane Helene

[calculus1]

Got another inch since midnight. Light rain now. Anybody got a rain gauge near Old Fort? Really curious on their totals. It trained on them all night.


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[buckeyefan1]

I had a little break from the rain last night, but it’s been pouring now for a few hours. Eyeballing the bucket, I’m over 3” and there’s no end in sight yet. 

[olafminesaw]

Have to watch these cells on the east side of the storm for quick spinups on Friday

[calculus1]

Corcoran observations coming in at 7 AM…


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[Met1985]

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Corcoran observations coming in at 7 AM…


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Dang that's impressive and all before Helene gets here.

[Met1985]

Had another inch overnight hear.  We had a bit of a lull were everything was to our east. Brings my total to 3.12 inches currently... will definitely help with the drought.

[franklin NCwx]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Had another inch overnight hear.  We had a bit of a lull were everything was to our east. Brings my total to 3.12 inches currently... will definitely help with the drought.

Poured all night and morning here in southern macon county 

[calculus1]

Dang that's impressive and all before Helene gets here.

Yep.

Found an Old Fort number, as the obs keep rolling in. 6.21 inches. Yikes. What’s @Rainforrest up to now?


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[franklin NCwx]

11 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

Definitely coming down hard again I’m about to cross 3 as I type. What part of the county are you in? I’m in Cowee.

Coweeta church 

[Rainforrest]

Another 3.65 since midnight. Still raining hard. 

[Met1985]

Just now, Rainforrest said:

Another 3.65 since midnight. Still raining hard. 

You're close to 10 inches already. 

[Rainforrest]

9.75 yesterday through this morning. 13.64 since Monday. 

[Met1985]

8 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

9.75 yesterday through this morning. 13.64 since Monday. 

Holy hell. 

[calculus1]

9.75 yesterday through this morning. 13.64 since Monday. 

Wow. Just. Wow.


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[ncjoaquin]

French Broad River at Asheville at 9.28.Rain as of 7:30 6.66 inches.

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/03451500/#parameterCode=00045&period=P7D&showMedian=false

[calculus1]

More Cocorahs totals coming in…


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[BooneWX]

1.58 last night, that’s almost 5 inches in the last 48 hrs at my home. Lake is looking high this morning and we’re not even close to the main show. 

[Shack]

9 hours ago, HWY316wx said:

Maybe someone on here can answer this without ripping me a new butt hole.  But, I have looked at all the operation models.  GFS, EURO, NAM, HRRR, HWRF... you name it.  They for the most part have the LPS coming on shore in the Big Bend area and then moving on a line to about Tifton, GA and then depending on the model, the next frame looks to be Macon, or Gainesville or Athens, GA.   I say this to say... the NWS cone and projected line is WEST of Atlanta.  The models seem to take a line East of Atlanta.  Why?  What am I missing?  Somebody straighten me out.

316, maybe the GFS and Euro are gonna be right.....

 

000 WTNT44 KNHC 260852 TCDAT4 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter, with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. The hurricane is starting its expected turn toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion now 015/10. The hurricane should accelerate north-northeastward during the next 24 h or so in the flow between a ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer baroclinic trough/cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley. This motion should bring the center of Helene to the coast of the Florida Big Bend region Thursday evening or early Friday morning. After landfall, Helene should turn northward and northwestward around the northeast and north side of the Tennessee Valley system. After 48 h, what is left of Helene should make a cyclonic loop as it merges with the baroclinic system. The latest track guidance has nudged a little to the northeast, especially near 36 h, and the portion of the new forecast track over Georgia and Tennessee has been moved a bit to the east.

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, Shack said:

316, maybe the GFS and Euro are gonna be right.....

 

000 WTNT44 KNHC 260852 TCDAT4 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter, with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the outer eyewall. Based on the central pressure fall and the available data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. The hurricane is starting its expected turn toward the north-northeast, with the initial motion now 015/10. The hurricane should accelerate north-northeastward during the next 24 h or so in the flow between a ridge over the Atlantic and a deep-layer baroclinic trough/cut-off low over the Tennessee Valley. This motion should bring the center of Helene to the coast of the Florida Big Bend region Thursday evening or early Friday morning. After landfall, Helene should turn northward and northwestward around the northeast and north side of the Tennessee Valley system. After 48 h, what is left of Helene should make a cyclonic loop as it merges with the baroclinic system. The latest track guidance has nudged a little to the northeast, especially near 36 h, and the portion of the new forecast track over Georgia and Tennessee has been moved a bit to the east.

It’s definitely ticked east overnight in real time and on guidance. The caveat I didn’t mention last night in my response is that a big storm is likely to resist the tug as well regardless of strength, so I think we’re seeing that. 
 

We’re really in territory we haven’t been in for a while. I feel like we’ve been spoiled with tight compact storms for years and we finally have a large lumbering beast. 

[BooneWX]

Per recon data, it looks like the beginning of the RI cycle might be commencing. 

[wncsnow]

The Catawba crested at minor flood over 13 ft but will undoubtedly rise again later today. Western McDowell got it bad. 

 

I'm at 5.24 the last 24 hours and 6.09 since Monday.  

[olafminesaw]

Hard to believe this thing is in the southern Gulf right now and will be right on top of our region 24 hours from now. Especially after Debby's crawl towards the coast 

[Rainforrest]

A lot of roads starting to flood. 

[mercurydime]

2 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Got another inch since midnight. Light rain now. Anybody got a rain gauge near Old Fort? Really curious on their totals. It trained on them all night.


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I'm about 6 miles east of downtown Old Fort.  I picked up 2.61 inches since midnight. Total for the event for me 8.23 inches. 

[Rainforrest]

[PackGrad05]

Starting to look at high res models for tomorrow morning for Raleigh.  Looks like a nasty line will come through during morning commute.  Gotta look out for gusty winds in that band (40 or so) and potential tornadoes.

[buckeyefan1]

47 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Well isn't that just a bundle of sunshine    

[kayman]

There's already been a couple of tornado warnings for the Charlotte metro including Catawba (Hickory), Mecklenburg (Charlotte), and Gaston counties. This is without the Tornado Watch for the metro area counties. The long duration tornado watch is for the non-Charlotte metro South Carolina counties and Southeast Georgia. 

Tornado Watch 684

< Previous WW

Public | Counties | Probabilities | Aviation | Warnings | Initial RADAR

Hazard Tornadoes EF2+ Tornadoes Likelihood High Low Severe Wind 65 kt+ Wind Low Low Severe Hail 2"+ Hail Very Low Very Low Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended. Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Georgia Central and Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 830 AM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...A long-duration and gradually increasing tornado threat will exist in association with the increasingly strong low-level winds on the northeast periphery of Hurricane Helene. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Savannah GA to 30 miles north of Columbia SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 683... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16025. ...Guyer

[buckeyefan1]

 

 

 

[buckeyefan1]

It doesn't matter what model you look at either